There are many candidates for a midwit’s idea of a smart person, but not many for what a smart person’s idea of a smart person.
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Eric Falkenstein
17.7K posts
Eric Falkenstein
@egfalken
Christian, libertarian, econ PhD. Interests: crypto, low vol investing, amateur wrestling, jiu-jitsu.
Minneapolis, MN Katılım Temmuz 2009
275 Takip Edilen4.1K Takipçiler
@100YearsAgoLive possibly? So, you have no idea what you are talking about.
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Wittgenstein comes from a wealthy family. His childhood home housed seven grand pianos and his father was a strict perfectionist. Four of his brothers killed themselves. He was classmates with Adolf Hitler and he fought on the front lines in the Great War.
Along with philosophy, Wittgenstein is a lover of aeronautics and Christianity. He is also a possible homosexual. He has been a teacher since 1920.
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@Quillette @clairlemon If she's promoting her site and references her column, it would help to have a link to the post. Interested, but snooping around is often not obvious on sites.
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Quillette Founder, Claire Lehmann (@clairlemon), explains that many people now follow a moral framework in which the oppressed can never be guilty.
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Eric Falkenstein retweetledi
🔥 RFK Jr. just showed America that Sen. Warnock (D-GA) is an absolute DOPE 🤣
WARNOCK: You made cuts to the rabies office!
RFK JR: “There’s 1-3 rabies cases PER YEAR in the US! I think ONE PERSON manning that office can handle that traffic!” 😂🔥
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Eric Falkenstein retweetledi
@CliffordAsness A govt agency thinks the free market needs govt agencies. 🤓
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“Free market absolutism” are made up propaganda words.
The World Bank was never close to whatever the propagandists think they meant by those nonsense words. An organization set up to bypass markets to provide below-market loans for social goals is free-market absolutism? Only insane people could believe/write that.
The Atlantic is total crap.
Morgan Ricks@MorganRicks1
World Bank to world: oops
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The futility of addressing global issues, or even national issues, highlights that they do not really care about these issues; instead, they are focused on building a corrupt kickback loop.
New York Post@nypost
Karen Bass brings more misery to suffering Angelenos with radical 14-point climate plan trib.al/G9SB0O7
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@savemathnow Given she's at Stanford, I can only imagine the idiocy of average professors of education.
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“Jo Boaler is a professor of education at the Stanford Graduate School of Education, with an enormously influential body of work …. Her work got Algebra removed from middle schools across the Bay Area.
It is some of the most incompetently or dishonestly conducted research I have seen in a decade as a journalist.”
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@RagnarAHW I'm sure experts would agree that their opinions cannot beat the vig of market odds that they affect, but that's a different question than whether experts beat heuristics. Market odds are not a heuristic.
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@egfalken But did the sports predictions from media experts outperform actual bookmakers? Probably not. Would that be the standard? Betting markets predict sports outcomes better than experts.
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I was at a conference and asked Tetlock why he didn't apply his model to sports betting, where we have lots of experts and data. He gave a long and unconvincing answer.
Werner Zagrebbi🇦🇿@zagrebbi
Philip Tetlock's results in the early 2000s were the most important in the history of political science: on average, subject-matter experts didn't beat random guessing—and did worse than simple heuristics. If this isn't part of your worldview, you're ngmi
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That's been his big idea for decades, so I sensed he didn't want to lessen its relevance by highlighting that when expertise can be monetized, simple heuristics do not work better than experts.
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He stuck with surveys about unweildly geopolitical questions that virtually no one thinks about or could empirically calibrate, or has an active market.
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The Masters is an amazingly successful institution. Their governance structure should be studied for ways to improve profit-making corporations and governments.
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Eric Falkenstein retweetledi
Most hostile replies to this paper are replied effectively by this reply
emmy🪩@rstarsa
increase your gdp per capita. thats all that matters
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Last night’s drawing, found myself reflecting on aging, and the persistence of memory. Pen and white chalk on grey paper
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The current president of Romania got a perfect score at the International Math Olympiad in 1988, including this beauty.
Math Files@Math_files
This problem is widely remembered as one of the most difficult mathematics problems of its time, originating from the International Mathematical Olympiad. In 1988, when the IMO was held in Australia, the final question—Problem 6—became legendary for its extreme difficulty. Only 11 students managed to achieve a perfect score on it. Even Terence Tao, a 13-year-old prodigy representing Australia at the time and later a Fields Medalist—the highest honor in mathematics—scored just one point on this problem. What makes the story even more remarkable is that when the problem was reviewed by the panel of experts before the exam, even they were unable to solve it. Despite this, it was still included in the competition.
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@SolanaFloor @oshield_io If they created a scam token CVT that had an oracle price, where was the oracle getting its price for CVT? Was it from some Solana-based AMM?
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🚨JUST IN: Initial findings on the Drift exploit from @oshield_io, smart contract audit and security provider:
➡️Someone on the Drift multisig appears to have updated the Drift state account to change the admin.
➡️A multisig member appears to have approved the change.
➡️The current admin is the attacker account.
➡️The attacker used that key to initialize a spot market vault for CVT, described by OShield as a scam propped up token, with a high oracle price.
➡️CVT was then deposited, and actual tokens were withdrawn using Drift’s cross-margin and swap functionality.
➡️Program upgrades are now happening to regain the admin, based on OShield’s latest analysis.
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@RonColeman Many high status white people have primarily white friends and colleagues, and are scared of being called racist. By showing contempt for whites who are not in their social/professional sphere, they can highlight they hate most whites too, so they can't be racist.
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• You cannot sufficiently appreciate the true depth of the contempt the elites feel toward the middle class.
• This contempt has been seamlessly transmitted to their offspring, who revel in their supposed superiority openly and with glee from a very young age. >
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Remember my wise friend?
We caught up today.
Ron Coleman@RonColeman
I had lunch with a very wise friend yesterday. He had a number of observations about the current crisis. The first is that, if indeed it's Biden, liberals are going to be horrified by what he delivers. Nothing "liberal" or "progressive" will happen. >
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I was a TA for Hyman Minsky, and while his Financial Instability Hypothesis is profound at one level--bear markets are endogenous--it was vague and non-falsifiable. Many credited him for calling the crash, but he always thought the market was about to crash (he died well before 2008). I remember one day the market was down a lot in early 1987, and he was very excited, but then it recovered by the end of the week.
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@VincentGeloso Also “years early” is not the flex he thinks it is it’s how in real financial markets you die.
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From Trump to Nethanyahu via Epstein on the road to "neoclassical economics are the bane of the world" . . . with a horrible understanding of what CGE and DSGE actually are or how they are actually used.
Prof. Steve Keen@ProfSteveKeen
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Eric Falkenstein retweetledi
The emcee at the No Kings rally in Minnesota, Lizz Winstead, says the quiet part out loud, reminding everyone that the so-called “No Kings” movement is a communist movement.
"I want people to know that if you want to act like Minnesota, or you think Minnesota is a model, what can I do? Well, you can check your ego about what you want to do and listen to the leadership, and when they tell you what they need done, you do that. And you pay enough attention to the amazing organizers who have been on the ground, who actually have the information, who have already done the work, instead of starting your own [group]... you need to be the pack mule."
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