ד״ר עינת וילף Dr. Einat Wilf

سقوط رژیم‌ها با روایت‌های ساده «ده‌روزه» که مراد ویسی عزیز قبل جنگ رمضان پیش بینی سقوط کرده بود؛ توضیح داده نمی‌شود؛ معادلات قدرت پیچیده‌تر از منطق صفر و یک‌اند. انقلاب‌ها عموماً یا انفجاری‌اند (سقوط سریع)، یا فرسایشی که در یک بازه چندماهه به نقطه گسست می‌رسند. در سناریوی فعلی، ضربات امریکا و اسرائیل صرفاً ساختار را تضعیف کرده‌اند، نه نابود؛ این ساختار نیازمند «تراش، تعدیل و تغییر فرم» است تا به آستانه فروپاشی برسد. نقطه تعیین‌کننده زمانی است که این تعدیل رخ دهد؛ جایی که هزینه سرکوب بالا می‌رود و نگاه جهانی به خیابان معطوف می‌شود. و دیگر رژیم فعلی نخواهد توانست مثل قبل کشتار فجیع کند، آنروز هم مشروعیت ندارد و هم پول. «میدانم همگی حتی برای یک روز دیرتر هم صبر ندارید، ولی انقلابمان هم مثل شانس مان در دسته انقلاب های فرسایشی قرار میگیرد، نمیخواستم بنویسم ولی مجبورا خواستم برای مدتی آماده باشید» آن‌جا و آن روز موعود دیگر معادله تغییر می‌کند: خیابان از یک امکان، به یک ضرورت سرنگونی رژیم تبدیل می‌شود…

It's hard to overstate just how extensive Hezbollah's war-infrastructure is in South Lebanon. One tunnel here or there may not sound like much. But just yesterday, the IDF said it destroyed two vast Hezbollah tunnel systems near Qantara: roughly 2 km of underground infrastructure, up to 25 meters deep, with some 30 rooms and 30 shafts, weapons, bunk beds, and shafts connected to rocket-launch positions aimed at Israel. Read much of the coverage in the global media since (and before) the ceasefire and one could be forgiven for thinking Israel is in southern Lebanon out of sheer territorial ambition. But that framing collapses entirely once you take a look at what Israel is actually finding on the ground. This infrastructure is technologically advanced, labor-intensive, and extremely expensive. All of it built with one explicit purpose: to launch cross-border attacks at Israel's sovereign territory. And according to independent reporting, these tunnels were built over decades with direct Iranian guidance and funding, “to Iranian standards,” (per: IDF) as part of Hezbollah’s plan to use southern Lebanon as a staging ground for attacks on northern Israel. That’s the obvious context which is so often missing from coverage of Israel's operation in Lebanon. Hezbollah doesn't just have “fighters” in southern Lebanon. It has spent years turning the area into a fortified military zone with tunnels, launch sites, weapons caches, observation posts, and Radwan Force infrastructure embedded within (and under!) civilian terrain. Israel isn’t simply bombing empty hills or random villages. It is trying to dismantle a war machine built by one of the best-funded non-state militias on earth. Intelligent observers of this conflict would do well to recognize this fact.

Following the antisemitic stabbing of two Jewish people on the streets of Golders Green this morning, words of condemnation are no longer sufficient. This must be a moment that demands meaningful action from every institution, every community, every leader, and every decent person in our country. This is a hatred that we must face down together.