Eli Angen

1. Hello friends. It’s been a little while. I hope you’ve been well. I don’t know if you remember me, but I used to tell stories here to try to help people feel better. I’ve written a book, and I hope it does the same. I hope it’s one of the antidotes.

Horses had a decent run too...

Do you like charts? Yes you do. I've just published 200 slides' worth. Here's a sample. Link in reply.

BREAKING: Republic of Korea and Bahrain join the PPCA 🇰🇷🇧🇭 This is a historic step for the Republic of Korea, with the world's 7th largest coal fleet. Find out about the country's new coal phase-out commitment, made official for the first time today⏩  poweringpastcoal.org/news/republic-…

Crime: Man steals bus with passengers on board. Canadian Crime: He still makes the scheduled stops to let passengers on and off. Canadian Crime Bonus: He denies boarding to one passenger because his bus pass had expired. globalnews.ca/news/11522515/…

Don't make me tap the sign

@bataille_chris @IEA “scenario Rorschach test season” is by far my favourite take of the day.

I see it’s @IEA WEO scenario Rorschach test season again out there again. Given our collective habit of underestimating both induced innovation & developing world energy demand, I’d suggest the CPS & NZ scenarios (not forecasts!) are implausible, & STEPS/APS is a best guess … 😉

NEW – IEA: Fossil-fuel use will peak before 2030 – unless ‘stated policies’ are abandoned | @DrSimEvans and Ho Woo Nam Read here ⬇️ buff.ly/dViEEPH

🤡OIL DEMAND WILL KEEP RISING🤡 What are the IEA assumptions that make rising oil demand so improbable? Today’s new IEA WEO “Current Policies Scenario” (CPS) shows global oil demand 13% higher in 2050 than in 2024. The IEA had previously heralded an imminent peaking of oil by 2030, and in today’s STEPS scenario they still say “oil peaks around 2030” - so why is the CPS so very different? Dive deep into the WEO, and it tells us… First, some context: 🔴The CPS is NOT “business as usual”. The IEA themselves say this. The evidence below proves this. 🔴The CPS is NOT the central scenario - “rising oil demand” is no more likely than “peak oil around 2030”. The “Announced Pledges Scenario” APS last year showed an almost halving of oil demand by 2050 (it is delayed this year whilst the IEA waits on NDCs). The “Net Zero Scenario” NZE shows 2050 oil demand falls by 77%, if more climate friendly policies are pursued. CPS assumption #1. EVs are not adopted beyond EU+China (really!): 🟡EV sales share outside of EU+China is assumed to remain the same in 2050 as it was in 2024. E.g. India stays at 2% EV sales share in 2024 through to 2050. 🟡That applies to all EVs including trucking - which is important because road freight is around 40% of total road oil use. 🟡That means only 15% of EV sales are outside of EU+China from 2024 through to 2050. This is in stark contrast to what’s happening on the ground, where many emerging countries have already seen a large uptick in 2025 compared to 2024. E.g. Vietnam rose from 17% in 2024 to almost 40% so far in 2025, in one year alone, and Turkiye rose from 11% in 2024 to 17% in 2025. CPS assumption #2. Efficiency gains dramatically slow: “Increases in efficiency of conventional technologies – cars, trucks, aircraft and ships – also slow from historical levels, as the CPS assumes that standards are not strengthened any further after their specified policy period.” 🟡Trucking efficiency barely improves: Assumes global annual average fuel economy improvements for ICE heavy freight trucks slow to around 0.1% to 2035, down from 0.5% over the past ten years. 🟡Car efficiency improves no faster than historically: ICE car fuel economy continues to improve broadly in line with historical trends, though in some advanced economies it does so a little more slowly than in the past. 🟡Aircraft efficiency improvements fall by almost 2/3rds: Aircraft fuel efficiency improved by around 2.5% per year on average over the last decade, yet the CPS assumes this falls to 0.9% through to 2035. 🟡Rail oil demand rises eight-times faster than in the previous ten years, due to slower electrification. Slowing efficiency is clearly NOT “business as usual”. Will policies on efficiency really just fade? And won’t technology and economics win to deliver lower fuel-emitting cars, ships and planes? The oil price in the CPS is the highest of all scenarios. If you see anyone saying “oil demand will rise” with a straight face, please point them towards what actually needs to happen on EVs and efficiency. Perhaps then, we can all agree this really is not a very likely scenario😉

@JavierBlas @opinion no nuance in the headline/subber for this being one of many scenarios!? no upfront explanation of why CPS is considered by many as so implausible (and hence why it was stopped for the last 6 years)?

@bataille_chris This was one of the main things I took away from CERAWeek earlier this year. Everyone's talking about a "dash to gas" again to meet demand, but in purely practical terms solar/wind + batteries are built and ready to be installed while a gas turbine is now a multi-year lead time

I have a theory, based on recent 2023/24 install history, that even with all the data center load & policy changes 80-90% power gen capacity built in the US will be solar or wind over the next several years, because that will be what you can order & build NOW. We'll see ...😄

This is pretty cool;) @KenGenMDandCEO x.com/CleanPowerDave…

Google and Meta search both report that Cape Breton Island has its own time zone 12 minutes ahead of mainland Nova Scotia time because they are both drawing that information from a Beaverton article I wrote in 2024

The City of Toronto Parks Department sure gets great results from its maintenance practice of dragging massive trucks all over the parks.

Battery costs are falling and battery storage capacity is skyrocketing 69 GW of capacity was installed in 2024 - almost enough to DOUBLE total battery storage capacity 🔋 ember-energy.org/latest-insight… #GER2025

*weeps in Ontarian*

I'm beginning to think that, perhaps, it's the fundamentals of climate policy (doing something costly today with most of the benefits falling to future generations) is the part that's hard. 😜 Political feasibility of prices vs subsidies vs regs is a momentary distraction.

That's an output, not an outcome.