El

@BruceCMaster Literally what? SATS don’t actually have their SpaceX shares… As far as I know, it hasn’t yet been transferred to them. So how would they sell what they don’t have?

If you want to be a long term investor of SPCX, buy $SATS. Its market cap is 32B, but its SPCX holding worth 43B, and they have other business worth about 30B, with ~15B debt. The discount in $SATS now is caused by those who cannot sell SPCX (PE/VC/Employee/IPO). So they short $SATS to hedge. The discount window will close when they are allowed to sell. The first batch will be unlocked when SPCX's price is above 30% of its IPO price ($135), aka $173.5, for 5 days. $SPCX is now $175.5. So the probability that this discount disappear in next week is greater than 30%. So buy $SATS, if you believe in Elon and in $SPCX.

I give it a year until we see a new breed of AI native private equity firms that acquire companies just so they can move their workflows from Claude to open source Chinese models and flip them.

The most contrarian thing you can do right now is to be relentlessly bullish.

Everywhere, capital is being pulled from other areas to become even more concentrated. The planned IPO pipeline alone is unprecedented: SpaceX ($75B), Anthropic (>$60B), OpenAI ($60B). The amount of capital these offerings could absorb is unlike anything we’ve seen before. In that context, a weaker crypto market seems entirely logical. I also see Tesla as a potential loser here. It’s hard to imagine public markets comfortably supporting four massively capitalized, still largely cash-flow-light growth stories at the same time. And with Musk, there’s another angle: I’m not even convinced he necessarily wants the highest possible Tesla valuation if SpaceX is eventually meant to have strategic flexibility around it. If you’re wondering why your favorite company is trading at such a low valuation despite solid execution, this may be part of the explanation. Capital isn’t disappearing, it’s becoming increasingly concentrated in a handful of narratives, leaving less attention and liquidity for everything else.

Should've just tagged me directly :(

Too many people miss out on incredible gains in the stock market because they think they are too smart for their own good They are constantly double guessing their decision making. Doing third order and fourth order thinking, believing that it will produce some unique angle for alpha Important to realize that during bull markets, it’s better to just buy the most obvious stocks that are in front of you Don’t make the game harder than it needs to be

From a young age, I have always wanted to be the exit liquidity for shareholders of artificial intelligence companies

We said $SPRY has a board built to sell the company. It’s not a random guess but rather a pattern anyone can read straight off the roster. Here's who actually sits on it, and what each of them has sold before:

$SPRY back of the envelope maths: assuming it doubles (conservative see latest prez) the tam, that’s 2bn potential revenue, slap a customary 3-4x multiple on that and you get to 6-8bn market cap, a 6-8x from here.

@bullsbayretail Insane jump in target price. (Ironically, my target price for $SPRY is $30.) It shows again the quality of the sell-side, "bumping" a price target from $12 to $30 and yet still maintaining an Outperform. Hey, if you have a stock you think will triple... it's a freakin' BUY!

$SPRY was one of the biopharma names we added to the portfolio in the recent rebalance. It’s kind of a layup. I have seen lots of people freak out about administering epipens. Just the other day my gf had to give a kid having anaphylaxis an epipen on the subway because their caretaker was too afraid to do it. This is actually not an unreasonable fear, either. Delivering an epipen is easy, but also easy to mess up if you’re freaking out. This product (intranasal epi delivered via nasal spray) will have solid penetration, especially in pediatrics. It’s comparable in price to an epipen, without insurance it’s actually cheaper than an epipen and comparable to adrenaclick ($199 for 2 doses of neffy, $500-700 for 2 epi autoinjectors). I think the company can pull off awareness (especially in pediatrics) without much in the way of marketing expenses (moms groups talk) and probably rack up some solid revenue before getting acquired. I’m a big fan of the company realizing it can make money while also having a net benefit here (ensuring copay is max $25/offering @ $199 w/o insurance), think that also speaks to their read on what demand will be like. I think it’s at least a double from here. Still, it’s a biopharma so it could also just go to zero because of “lmao sike”. Size appropriately.

“Congrats on the Series A brother” “Nice 10-bagger king” “Wow, you only bought that 4x EBITDA??? Great value”

remember all the people that said software was dead and it’ll all be vibe coded away yeah please never listen to that argument ever again the tokens need to be processed, orchestrated, and governed via the application layer SaaS Summer baby

Nice to see $SPRY getting some buzz after Cantor's PT upgrade. Haven't seen recent posts recapping the thesis, so thought we'd share ours here. 🧵 1/9

@SmallCapKing2 Yes, that’s a thesis I’ve begun to underwrite quietly. But I fear it may be too early within all the euphoria but you know, stock prices always operate on a lag. But to the point about having a supply glut, I’d hate to bet against innovation and Jevon’s paradox.

@elshazar Could be. But it seems odd given the massive increases in datacenter build budgets. Component prices have soared simply given that everything anyone can get is being bought. The question is whether we've finally got enough supply. If true, prices would fall - followed by stocks.

Interesting tidbit I just saw: "GPU rental prices have dropped over 30% in two weeks, a sharp mean-reversion signal that demand for AI inference may be decelerating faster than consensus expects." #AIstocks

Oh we’ve been way too quiet on here. Especially seeing how our core names seem to be attracting some attention these days.

Unbelievably long $PLTR 🙏🏼

Nothing says "I have long-term confidence in this business and am not just trying to pump and dump" like posting about the stock 40x per day

From my personal experience, AI has made it 10x more fun to work in finance and look at potential investment opportunities All of the grunt work that used to take up hours of time is now being automated. Instead of having to aggregate data from various sources, I am having Claude or ChatGPT complete these tasks and do research overnight By the time I wake up, I essentially have work ready to be reviewed and then I send the agent back on the hunt for new information and analysis It is literally like having a bunch of qualified interns and analysts under you doing the job, while you get to focus on the big picture and critical thinking, which are the more fun parts of the role anyway My excitement and capacity to do more work have literally 10xed because of agentic AI. Truly amazing.