esdul

The 2026-27 El Niño is simply astonishing. Tropical Pacific waters are running nearly 7 weeks ahead of where they’ve ever been at this point in an El Niño cycle in modern history. Models now put the peak strength at 3.6°C on the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), the new standard for measuring El Niño that adjusts for background ocean warming from climate change. That would beat the previous record (Dec. 1877, the strongest El Niño ever observed) by 0.7°C. In the context of climate, that’s completely blowing the previous record out of the water. For context, an El Niño is informally considered a Super El Niño when, for 3 months, the Niño 3.4 index is 2.0°C or above. Frankly, expect extreme climate and weather impacts over the next 12-18 months. Forecasts have also been consistently, aggressively wet for California and the southern US. Many of California’s largest floods have hit during El Niño years, and in very strong events, El Niño typically becomes the single best predictor of a very wet winter in California. It also elevates the odds of a megaflood in the state. @Weather_West’s research found 7 of 8 modeled ARkStorms occurred during moderate-to-strong El Niño years. The bigger picture: 2027 could be the first year Earth briefly touches 2°C above preindustrial levels. With each successive model update, the forecasted strength of El Niño is increasing, with ensembles now putting a 94% chance on a Super El Niño this winter. Virtually certain.