Evan Bear

48.6K posts

Evan Bear

Evan Bear

@evanbear20

Katılım Eylül 2018
318 Takip Edilen366 Takipçiler
ratchet
ratchet@brawlandanarchy·
@LinkofSunshine Sometimes you have to wonder how liberation will be achieved by 3% of the population who have any semblance of education and class consciousness on behalf of 90% of the population who willingly fight for the capitalists
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@HMartok @rorynotsorry @Noahpinion A little bit, but it's like 60/40, not 90/10 or whatever. And a lot of those conservative guys are conservative in temperament, but aren't necessarily all that into politics.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@IlyaSomin Good thing you all get along since you're now all liable to get sent to CECOT together.
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Ilya Somin
Ilya Somin@IlyaSomin·
It's notable that all of us say the answer is "yes," and in a big way, even though we have huge ideological and other differences.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@bengrossbg It would in fact have helped her if she did that, but people didn't trust her to follow through.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@shmr50 @ErlineP @mattyglesias Also, these male Latino Biden voters who stayed home were not base voters. They were unaligned swing voters with at least some conservative tendencies. The idea that those guys stayed home because Harris wasn't sufficiently gung-ho progressive is frankly laughable.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@ErlineP @shmr50 @mattyglesias Yes. In fact, Harris benefited from the lower turnout, as polling indicated that nonvoters were more pro-Trump than voters were. If turnout had been higher, then Harris would have lost by a larger margin.
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Erline Andrews
Erline Andrews@ErlineP·
@evanbear20 @shmr50 @mattyglesias It is a fact that a lot of people who voted in 2020 stayed home. A lot of people who voted for Biden stayed home. Kamala Harris lost ground in traditionally blue places and you think that's entirely due to swing voters?
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@ErlineP @shmr50 @mattyglesias Harris lost because voters who voted [Obama '12-Trump '16-Biden '20] voted for Trump in '24. Swing voters decide elections. One swing voter is worth 2x a base voter, and nearly all base voters turn out in gen elections no matter what because of their dislike for the other side.
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Erline Andrews
Erline Andrews@ErlineP·
@evanbear20 @shmr50 @mattyglesias What you're saying makes no sense. Of course you have to turn out your base. Overall turnout last year was less than 2020. And thats one of the reasons Kamala Harris lost.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@shmr50 @mattyglesias It *should* be the case that primary voters choose the most electable candidates. The problem is that it isn't. Because (a) many primary voters don't even try to do that, (b) the majority of them do try but they often do not understand what appeals to swing voters.
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Shuan Rose🇯🇲🌎🇺🇸
@evanbear20 @mattyglesias ( Shrug) If you can't win the primary, you most likely can't win the general. That's the logic of primary contests- you pick the strongest GE candidate in a survival of the fittest primary. Bennett wasn't fit last time.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@ErlineP @shmr50 @mattyglesias That's almost 100% false. Base mobilization is not a major part of winning general elections. If anything, it's harmful, because the tactics that juice your own base necessarily mobilize the other side's base too.
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Erline Andrews
Erline Andrews@ErlineP·
@evanbear20 @shmr50 @mattyglesias Why do you think someone who can't win a primary can win a general election? Part of how you win a general election is getting your base energized to come out and vote for you. Voters staying home is often why candidates lose.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@yhdistyminen Almost seems like abolishing due process isn't really a necessary means to an end for them, but the end in itself.
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Jason Harrison
Jason Harrison@nominalthoughts·
Getting ready for my date tomorrow
Jason Harrison tweet media
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@shmr50 @mattyglesias I don't think that's true. It's a small sample - our current polarized era has only been around about 20 yrs - but I can't think of a single person who had a strong record in statewide gen elections relative to his/her state's partisan makeup who then did badly in a potus race.
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Shuan Rose🇯🇲🌎🇺🇸
@evanbear20 @mattyglesias Lots of people do well in statewide elections don't do well at the presidential level. Anyway he can try again in 2028. I strongly suspect the Democrats will play it safe and pick a tall middle aged white guy, so his chances will be better.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@shmr50 @mattyglesias Yes, he was crushed in the primary, thus never got to run in the general election. Therefore, we don't know how well he would have done in the general election. We do know that he's run in statewide general elections in Colorado, a light blue state, and has done fine.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@RpsAgainstTrump Did he even get any power as part of the deal? Seems like he's just saying whatever they tell him to say, like a puppet.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@shmr50 @mattyglesias This is a just-so story. Kerry actually performed very well relative to fundamentals vs a moderately popular incumbent. Hillary had her faults but ran under much harder conditions than Bill (faced incumbent during recession) or Obama (lame duck ultra-unpopular 2-term Republican).
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@Wilson__Valdez Her district is not that conservative (R+6). She could lose next year.
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Centrism Fan Acct 🔹
Centrism Fan Acct 🔹@Wilson__Valdez·
Constituent very politely asks her about doing town halls and she flips out and says 'fuck you' to him. And then posts it online thinking she looks good.... I really don't throw this out willy-nilly but this lady needs serious help. She is very mentally unwell.
Nancy Mace@NancyMace

Some unhinged lunatic, a man, wearing daisy dukes, at a makeup store, got in my face today. Dems are nuts. So I went off - and I won’t be backing down. I hold the line 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. Try me.

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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@jessesingal Also, what exactly is the "suicide" in this metaphor supposed to represent? In what way is the Constitution forcing us to kill ourselves?
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@shmr50 @mattyglesias Charisma is highly overrated in general elections (but it is much more important in primaries). That's one of many reasons why performance in the primaries is a very poor predictor of performance in the general. I'm not saying it's totally uncorrelated, but it's close.
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Shuan Rose🇯🇲🌎🇺🇸
@mattyglesias Bennett is a good guy with the right policy chops, but he is about as chariamatic as a fire hydrant. Some people have the " it" factor, and some people don't.
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Evan Bear
Evan Bear@evanbear20·
@predederva @lxeagle17 The difference is that Trump is a Republican, while Stephen A. would be running in the Democratic primary.
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Prede
Prede@predederva·
@lxeagle17 They said that about Trump in 2015. Famous last words .
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Lakshya Jain
Lakshya Jain@lxeagle17·
Stephen A. Smith is a lunatic who happens to be good on TV. He would be very lucky to crack 15% in a single state in the 2028 primaries.
Elvis@ElvisElven

@lxeagle17 @Boat_Stairs Where you placing Stephen A?

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