Mike

@rodrigoaan @tlaubers Great post and insights, thanks!

One of the strongest pushbacks on the $FOUR Global Blue cross-sell, which I put to @tlaubers directly, is that the big luxury houses already run sophisticated acquirers like $ADYEN. My view has been that the cross-sell opportunity is much broader than just the marquee luxury names. The open question for me was whether #Shift4 could win those entrenched accounts at all. @tlaubers' answer settled it 👇 @Shift4 takes share even in the big accounts that Adyen and the other major processors already serve, those are demanding, low-spread, but strong proof points. The bigger opening is everything beneath them, the SMB merchants on Global Blue for tax-free that no major processor ever properly served. @Shift4 wins at both ends, with different competitors at each. International growth backs the direction, +51% YoY last quarter on European adds. Still need to see the GB synergies come through in tangible numbers, but @tlaubers and team are very well positioned to win with great execution! $FOUR

@TheRonnieVShow Thoughts on $rddt?

My shopping list on this dip with levels: 1. $ZETA $18-22 2. $NOW $100-120 3. $NBIS $150-180 4. $SOFI $14-16 5. $MSFT $390-415 6. $APP $450-500 7. $CRWV $85-100 8. $AMZN $220-240 9. $AMD $300-370 10. $OSCR $16-20

@garyblack00 While I agree with you. If the market is demanding baggier clothing don't they have to adapt? I'm starting to see this trend everywhere.

Three issues from LULU’s conference call yesterday should give investors pause that $LULU may still not be on the right path after a disastarous 6-month stretch which included the firing of their previous CEO. 1/ Nothing epitomizes LULU ‘s problems than its recently introduced “off the body” — loose fitting — yoga pants and gym wear. The concept is wholly inconsistent with the LULU brand - which is yoga wear that is tight-fitting, sexy, shows off one’s body. It would be akin to putting the Tesla brand on non-EV vehicles. 2/ Blaming weak 1Q sales on the boardroom drama where founder Chip Wilson and the current board demanded more seats. Since when does a proxy fight impact underlying sales? 3/ New CEO Heidi O’Neill won’t start until September (perhaps due to a non-compete limitation from Nike during her previous role there as President, Consumer and Marketing). That implies another two quarters of mediocre results as LULU struggles to build momentum as competitors Vuori, Alo, and Slims continue to take share.

@bobspaysubstack Dead until next year maybe. Charts look like garbage. Thanks for the update. It has been painful

A couple concluding thoughts on payments from another tough week: Right now, multiple companies are being priced for permanent disruption in payments i.e., $GPN $FISV $PYPL $FOUR but there is diminishing value being allocated to the disruptors, at least the publicly traded ones. An example: $GPN trades at 4.5x. This is due in (large) part to concerns about its integrated channel, where it provides processing for vertical-specific ISVs. Who’s encroaching on this space? Stripe yes, but also $ADYEN, whose Platforms segment is its fastest growing. If $GPN trades at 4.5x then $ADYEN can’t trade at less than a market multiple. Either $GPN or $ADYEN should trade at a higher multiple. The market is pricing a large chunk of this business going away from $GPN, but who is it going to? All of it can’t go to Stripe, can it? The other point, which reinforces the first point: There is a shocking disconnect between private and public market valuations for payments companies. Last fall, Checkout was assigned a $12B valuation in an employee sale. Checkout did $300B of volume in 2025. Assuming a 15bps take rate implies $450M of revenue. Adjusted EBITDA was 10% so around $50M of adjusted EBITDA. $12B market cap for $50M of ‘adjusted’ EBITDA. Meanwhile, $ADYEN will do ~$1.68B of GAAP EBITDA in 2026 and currently has a market cap of ~$30B and <$25B EV. My conclusion: no winners in payments, only losers. I don’t think that’s sustainable, but certainly been wrong so far.

@saxena_puru Thank you!

@everchos3n ~10% on SPX, ~15% on NDX and 30-40% on growth stocks is our educated guess. Time will tell.

Over the past 10 days, we locked-in gains on all our over-extended stocks and raised ~45% cash in the portfolio. Whenever stocks run too far away from the 40-week moving average and the rise becomes parabolic, the music usually stops fairly soon. Buy low, sell high.

@CurryorNothing @scotto2050 @Shift4 @tlaubers I doubt they will spend the full 400m at these levels. Secondly the overall benefits of a far higher share price far exceed the value of retiring 400m worth of shares anyways.

@everchos3n @scotto2050 @Shift4 @tlaubers If they did, and the stock spiked, how does that help them if they plan to spend $400m on buybacks?

Looking for an angle on the SpaceX $SPCX IPO? Check out Starlink's payments processor, Shift4 Payments. No matter how you slice it, $FOUR's valuation is getting hard to ignore... 0.7 | P/S 30 | P/E 1.8 | P/B 12 | P/FCF 10 | EV/AdjEBITDA 2.5 | Debt/Equity 4.8 | Debt/AdjEBITDA

@TomSmith839 What about the bigger sustained thing that $four handles the payments for spaceX $SPCX. The world cup is only every 4 years but SpaceX is going into a new frontier and will result in massive payment volumes.

The impact of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on Shift4 will make the NBA Finals transaction volume look like pocket change $FOUR

@smdcapital The company just isn't performing well. They basically gave up on manufacturing more vehicles. Maybe the robotaxi works maybe it doesn't. Gambling literally the entirety of the company on it.

i'm going to share a little stat with you in hopes that it pisses you off enough to get tesla out of your ass since recent ATH, guess what the fib retracement levels were for TSLA versus QQQ? TSLA = 0.5 fib QQQ = 2.272 fib what does that mean? that means that from ATH to the april lows, tesla has managed to get about 50% of the way up toward its ATH whereas QQQ is more than 2X the distance to put that in comparison, if QQQ was as SHIT as tesla, it would be trading at ... 596 (currently at 740, which is 24% higher) if TSLA kept pace with QQQ in this regard, it would be trading at... $703 (~69% higher - ooo funny joke for you elon jerking faggots) thank you for your attention to this matter!

@fivepointscap Potentially acquisition target for openai or anthropic perhaps? 🤔🤔

People also don’t realize that $RDDT is the ONLY large scale neutral source of training data. What do I mean? X —> xAI Instagram/FB —> Meta YouTube —> Google LinkedIn —> Microsoft TikTok —> ByteDance All of them are building in-house LLMs so their datasets are proprietary

@The_RockTrading Please stop being right on this one.

Finally!

@The_RockTrading Oh god.... -9%. Why did I listen to that idiot Burry on this trade.

@The_RockTrading I'm still long please pray for me lol

Die $LULU

@optionscjp Welp.... Ugh

$LULU earnings after the bell.. Kinda feels like they HAVE to go up … right? .. right?

@TheRonnieVShow Would you mind having a look at $four. Most fintech names are up today except this dog 😩😬

Someone knows something... Crypto is falling. Fintech is rising. Those two normally move together. Not this time. Insiders are loading the boat. Pay attention.

@tembelvitesi $four has now broken the psychological $40 level.... Very odd because basically all other fintech names are up today across the board.

Buying $META at $600 is like buying $FOUR at $60. I've been there. Amazing business that just committed $135B in capex with nothing to show for it yet. Revenue's up 33%, EPS crushed estimates, stock is down 25% from highs. Sound familiar? $FOUR grew revenue 49%, beat EPS by 65%, and still sits at its 52-week low. Market doesn't care how good your quarter was when the investment cycle hasn't played out yet. Every quarter for the next year, analysts will ask "where's the capex ROI?" (Where is the Global Blue Cross-sell?) and every quarter the answer will be "it's coming." FCF dropping 80% this year. Custom chips at scale? 2027. Llama monetization? $0 so far. This is going to take time same as Shift4. And almost every buyback dollar of Meta goes to covering dilution. Net shares down just 4% in a decade. So, I learned my lesson with $FOUR — right thesis, right company but a bit early. Around $550 the risk/reward actually might work. That's where I'll be waiting to open a position if it ever comes there.

@pdicarlotrader How cooked is crypto? $btc and $eth?

$DUOL is down 77% since the bear cycle started. This is why I only buy strength, not tickers I’m emotionally attached to. Buying pressure might be building, but I wait for a clear bull trend. Losses + opportunity cost of bagholding = double hit.

@joecarlsonshow Along with all fintech names. Frustrating

The stock market now apparently thinks Mastercard is a bad company.

@kholov23 Translation? More up?

If you look at 4H candle chart that’s a bump-and-run reversal bottom where bullish flag got invalidated and now rounding getting back into the channel $META