Marcius Extavour

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@JigarShahDC Excellent summary!

Hilarious, amazing, intriguing

So nice to be back in Ottawa 🕺🏽

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@TheCoolestCool @lucyhargreaves4 I hear you. I gave a talk on energy and climate to group of seniors last wk. I centered falling battery, solar PV prices, growing PV and EV adoption. The only economic question I received was, what about greed? I replied that somebody's going to make money, only question of who

@extempo @lucyhargreaves4 Yeah you’re not wrong. But that’s wherein lies the issue. The entire country needs to accept reality which is leaning into a culture that embraces capitalism is what would a lot of the issues..

Alabama's unemployment rate is 2.7%. Canada's is 6.5%. Alabama now manufactures nearly as many cars as Ontario. How did the one of the poorest states in the US start outcompeting us? The Globe went down there to find out. The short version: Alabama spent 30 years treating economic development like a serious strategy... landing investments, making it fast and easy to build, and clawing back incentives from companies that didn't deliver. Canada spent the same 30 years writing reports about competitiveness and then not acting on them. Eli Lilly just put a $6B pharma plant in Huntsville. That could have been Montreal. Alabama is no paradise. Life expectancy is 74 vs 82 in Canada, minimum wage is $7.25. But there's a line in the piece that stuck with me. In 2007, the Harper government commissioned a competitiveness report. The conclusion as to why it's difficult to take the actions needed to be more competitive: "Canadians do not perceive that there is an imminent crisis." The authors said you'd get the same answer today. I think they're probably mostly right. And as the Globe puts it: "If Canadians remain complacent, the rest of the world will eat our lunch." We're in a crisis, folks. An imminent one at that. Time to get seriously aggressive about the changes we need to make.

@AlexEpstein Which of the seven stages of grief is this? Bargaining?

If solar and wind are not replacements for fossil fuel power, what are they? After all, they are doing something—witness charts showing large amounts of “generation” in a day or the largest growth in “generation” and “capacity” over time. That “something” is saving fuel for reliable power sources.

@lucyhargreaves4 I feel like I've been reading Globe editorials about weak productivity my entire adult life. Maybe globe readers are too rich to really care, or too comfy to believe anything needs to change

@TheCoolestCool @lucyhargreaves4 That word likely will be tough sell, given how much it's a punching bag in Canadian society, and progressive US media that's so popular in Canada. But talking about real investment, real risk taking, real evaluations, real economic signals like earnings, personal incomes may work

@lucyhargreaves4 Canada needs to fall in love with capitalism again.

What an absolute G!! Also, who says mathematicians don't have style?

@CO2Council @PE_Coalition I just booked a meeting on the premise of "the way we talk about climate change sucks". Looking forward to reading this

The language we use to talk about carbon dioxide removal can shape public support. @CO2Council and @PE_Coalition released research exploring how people think about CDR and which narratives improve understanding. Read the report here: carbonbusinesscouncil.org/s/Finding-a-Co…

I'm being accused of overhyping the [site everyone heard too much about today already]. People's reactions varied very widely, from "how is this interesting at all" all the way to "it's so over". To add a few words beyond just memes in jest - obviously when you take a look at the activity, it's a lot of garbage - spams, scams, slop, the crypto people, highly concerning privacy/security prompt injection attacks wild west, and a lot of it is explicitly prompted and fake posts/comments designed to convert attention into ad revenue sharing. And this is clearly not the first the LLMs were put in a loop to talk to each other. So yes it's a dumpster fire and I also definitely do not recommend that people run this stuff on their computers (I ran mine in an isolated computing environment and even then I was scared), it's way too much of a wild west and you are putting your computer and private data at a high risk. That said - we have never seen this many LLM agents (150,000 atm!) wired up via a global, persistent, agent-first scratchpad. Each of these agents is fairly individually quite capable now, they have their own unique context, data, knowledge, tools, instructions, and the network of all that at this scale is simply unprecedented. This brings me again to a tweet from a few days ago "The majority of the ruff ruff is people who look at the current point and people who look at the current slope.", which imo again gets to the heart of the variance. Yes clearly it's a dumpster fire right now. But it's also true that we are well into uncharted territory with bleeding edge automations that we barely even understand individually, let alone a network there of reaching in numbers possibly into ~millions. With increasing capability and increasing proliferation, the second order effects of agent networks that share scratchpads are very difficult to anticipate. I don't really know that we are getting a coordinated "skynet" (thought it clearly type checks as early stages of a lot of AI takeoff scifi, the toddler version), but certainly what we are getting is a complete mess of a computer security nightmare at scale. We may also see all kinds of weird activity, e.g. viruses of text that spread across agents, a lot more gain of function on jailbreaks, weird attractor states, highly correlated botnet-like activity, delusions/ psychosis both agent and human, etc. It's very hard to tell, the experiment is running live. TLDR sure maybe I am "overhyping" what you see today, but I am not overhyping large networks of autonomous LLM agents in principle, that I'm pretty sure.

@AndreasenJack Riches in the niches. I think there are a few items like this which can be executed in near term, and still have lasting positive impact in this admin and beyond. Recession times are good times to tidy up the house?

This bill would direct NETL to conduct carbon-intensity analysis of US produced goods covered by the CBAM The US already has the facility-level data for this in the Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, which the EPA has proposed to repeal Huge opportunity to streamline efforts!

Really nice explanation about the storm that's arriving this wknd, how they affect power prices, and quick primer on power markets and what actually drives spot prices vs futures prices generally

Artist Guillermo Galetti, turns discarded metal into captivating biomechanical sculptures

@iamtapi @JigarShahDC @seanholeary1 @Meta This kind of thing traditionally doesn't just scale up by hiring more people. The required expertise is actually quite rare in the US labor market, where a new reactor has not been commissioned in decades. I fear this is another case of silicon Valley hubris. Unforced error.

@JigarShahDC @seanholeary1 @Meta Why do you think they can’t ramp up that part of the puzzle? I understand that it is complicated but it would just mean they need to hire the people to help them do it?

@lisamurkowski Please use the power of your position as an elected US Senator. Your words are welcome, but you have so many other tools at your disposal. There are only 99 other people who have the power that you do, and you have more integrity than most of them. Please act.

After speaking with Chair Powell this morning, it’s clear the administration’s investigation is nothing more than an attempt at coercion. If the Department of Justice believes an investigation into Chair Powell is warranted based on project cost overruns—which are not unusual—then Congress needs to investigate the Department of Justice. The stakes are too high to look the other way: if the Federal Reserve loses its independence, the stability of our markets and the broader economy will suffer. My colleague, Senator Tillis, is right in blocking any Federal Reserve nominees until this is resolved. apnews.com/article/federa…

@AndreasenJack I found the entire conversation fascinating honestly. Despite the technical details, its a summary of key general tensions among ppl who care about climate solutions. Some differences of opinion and philosophy, some genuine misunderstanding, some shared uncertainty

From a couple days ago lol

Would love to know the actual argument here. Jesse has never hid his funding sources, and talked openly about O&G helping to fund Net Zero America which was highly influential in getting the IRA passed. Is it just in this thread, about a different COI, he didn’t say it? Weird.

@AndreasenJack @gbrew24 But now that energy demand growing in rich nations again, and still rising in less rich nations, I think it's possible that we see more mega nationalized electricity generation eventually and trade, and less local generation . Think Quebec selling power into NY and New England

@AndreasenJack @gbrew24 Because of limited electricity storage, I always assumed power would stay Regional as it is today, never truly become global like hydrocarbons. The DER movement feels like it pushes in same local direction.

Great 🧵 Would also make the very simple point that, apart from power and industry, fossil fuels remain a crucial input for transportation, despite advances in electrification. High domestic production is why gasoline and middle distillates are more affordable.