ezyrider

20.1K posts

ezyrider

ezyrider

@ezyrider

Short seller of narratives. I cause cognitive dissonance.

Katılım Eylül 2007
569 Takip Edilen250 Takipçiler
Dwarkesh Patel
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp·
New blackboard lecture w @reinerpope How do chips actually work – starting with basic logic gates, and working up to why GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and the human brain each look the way they do. 0:00:00 – Building a multiply-accumulate from logic gates 0:16:20 – Muxes and the cost of data movement 0:25:59 – How systolic arrays work 0:39:00 – Clock cycles and pipeline registers 0:51:40 – FPGAs vs ASICs 1:03:14 – Cache vs scratchpad 1:07:16 – Why CPU cores are much bigger than GPU cores 1:11:49 – Brains vs chips 1:15:22 – A GPU is just a bunch of tiny TPUs Look up Dwarkesh Podcast on YouTube/Spotify/etc to watch. Enjoy!
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ezyrider@ezyrider·
@nicbstme If the model alone isn’t the product, the OpenAI Anthropic duopoly is dead. There will be a lot of vertical competitors in this scenario.
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Nicolas Bustamante
Nicolas Bustamante@nicbstme·
I call that the model-harness-fit which includes everything from the model to the tools and skills. Labs train models on their harness and architecture. For instance OpenAI has different conventions than Anthropic regarding memory.md. Ultimately a general intelligent model will work on any harness/tools/skills so the Model-Harness-Fit scaffolding will disappear.
Greg Brockman@gdb

the model alone is no longer the product

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Deirdre Bosa
Deirdre Bosa@dee_bosa·
The more interesting part is that Microsoft’s own engineers liked Claude code best…and they’re cutting it anyway Token pricing is making enterprise actually look at what these models cost to run and that could be a problem for the labs when the subsidy ends. Lots of cheaper options out there and not just Chinese open source anymore
Hedgie@HedgieMarkets

🦔Microsoft canceled its internal Claude Code licenses this week after token-based billing made the cost untenable, even for a company with effectively infinite cloud resources. Uber's CTO sent an internal memo warning the company burned through its entire 2026 AI budget in just four months. American AI software prices have jumped 20% to 37%, and GitHub (owned by Microsoft) is dropping flat-rate plans for usage-based billing across its products. My Take The AI subsidy era is ending in real time. The same company that put $13 billion into OpenAI and built the Azure infrastructure powering most of Anthropic's compute just looked at the bill from a competitor's coding tool and decided it was not worth paying. That is not a productivity failure on Anthropic's end. Token-based pricing is forcing every enterprise customer to confront the actual cost of running these models at scale, and the number turns out to be far higher than the flat-rate experiments suggested. This ties directly to my Gemini Flash post yesterday. Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google all raised effective prices in the last six months. Enterprises that built workflows assuming AI costs would keep falling are now watching annual budgets evaporate in months. Two outcomes look likely from here. Either enterprises scale back AI usage to fit budgets, which slows the revenue ramp the labs need to justify their valuations ahead of IPOs, or the labs cut prices and absorb the losses, which makes the unit economics worse at exactly the wrong moment. Both paths land in the same place, the numbers stop working, and somebody has to take the writedown. Hedgie🤗

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Fireworks AI
Fireworks AI@FireworksAI_HQ·
Fine-tuning used to mean a team, a GPU cluster, and weeks of iteration. Now it's just a CLI command, ~10 min of GPU time, a few cents of compute. You walk away owning the weights. Open models off the shelf in 2026? Good enough to ship. But they're still just a starting point.
elvis@omarsar0

x.com/i/article/2056…

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ezyrider@ezyrider·
@RhysSullivan Tech bro CEOs are highly paid monkey see, monkey do machines
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Rhys
Rhys@RhysSullivan·
I saw a quote tweet of this saying it was “the best job cut post they’ve ever read” So I open it up and instead find it’s the stupidest job cut post I’ve ever read
Zeb Evans@DJ_CURFEW

Today we reduced headcount by 22%. The business is the strongest it's ever been. So I think it's important to be direct about what I'm seeing and why. First, I made this decision and I own it. I did it because the way to operate at the highest level of productivity is changing, and to win the future, ClickUp needs to change with it. Second, this wasn't about cutting costs. Most savings from this change will flow directly back into the people who stay. We'll be introducing million-dollar salary bands. If you create outsized impact using AI, you'll be paid outside of traditional bands. Most importantly, I have the deepest gratitude for those affected. We're doing this from a position of strength specifically so we can take care of people properly. Everyone affected receives a package aimed at honoring their contributions and easing the transition. I only see two options: wait for this to play out gradually in the market or be honest about what I'm seeing and act proactively. THE 100X ORGANIZATION The primary change is that we're restructuring around what I call 100x org. The goal is 100x output. The roles required to build at the highest level are fundamentally different than they were a year ago. Incremental improvements to existing systems won't get us there. We need new ones. That means creating enough disruption to rebuild rather than iterate on what's already broken. The common narrative is that AI makes everyone more productive. It doesn't. Many of the workflows of today, if left unchanged, create bottlenecks in AI systems. These roles will evolve. But waiting for that to happen naturally means falling behind now. The 100x org is actually heavily dependent on people - infinitely more than today. This is only possible with 10x people that have embraced and adopted new ways of working. THE BUILDERS, AGENT MANAGERS, AND FRONT-LINERS — THE BUILDERS: 10X ENGINEERS I don't think most companies have internalized what's actually happening with AI in engineering. The common narrative is that AI makes all engineers more productive. That may be true in isolation, but at an organization level - that is the farthest thing from reality. Here's what we've validated recently at ClickUp: the great engineers, the ones who can orchestrate, architect, and review, are becoming 100x engineers. They're not writing code. They're directing agents that write code. The skill is judgment. AI makes the best engineers wildly more productive, and everyone else using AI slows these engineers down. Think about it - the bottlenecks are (1) orchestration - telling AI what to do, and (2) reviewing - what AI did. Everything is leapfrogged and no longer needed. So who do you want orchestrating and reviewing code? And how do you want your best engineers to spend their time? If your best engineers are spending time reviewing other people's code, then this is inherently an inefficient bottleneck. These engineers can review their agent's code much faster than reviewing human code. The new world is about enabling your 10x engineers to become 100x. The wrong strategy is to push every engineer to use infinite tokens. Companies doing this are celebrating 500% more pull requests. But customer outcomes don't match the volume of code being generated. I call this the great reckoning of AI coding, and every company will face this soon if not already. More code is just another bottleneck to the best engineers, and ultimately to your company's impact as well. — THE BUILDERS: 10X PRODUCT MANAGERS Product management and design roles are merging. Designers that have customer focus, become more like product managers. And product managers that have intuition for UX become more like designers. The bottleneck of user research is gone. It takes us just one mention of an agent to kickoff research and analyze results. The bottleneck of product <> design iteration is also gone. The product builder iterates on their own, along with agents and skills that ensure alignment with quality and strategy. Also controversial today - I believe that the wrong strategy is to have your PMs shipping code - that just introduces another bottleneck that the best engineers will waste their time on. To be clear, PMs should be coding but they should do this in a playground to iterate, validate, and scope. That code should not go to production. Everything outside of managing systems, orchestrating AI, and reviewing output becomes a bottleneck. That's why the other roles that are critical along with these are the systems managers (to reduce bottlenecks) along with a bottleneck you can't replace - customer meeting time. — THE SYSTEM MANAGERS Ironically, the people that automate their jobs with AI will always have a job. They become owners of the AI systems - agent managers. We have many examples of these people at ClickUp. The underlying systems in which we operate are absolutely critical to get right. I think most companies are delusional to think they can iterate on existing systems and compete in this new world. You must create enough disruption so that old systems are deprecated entirely. If there's any definition for 'AI native' that's what it is. — THE FRONT-LINERS In a world that will become saturated with AI communication, the human touch will matter more than anything to customers. This is a bottleneck that you shouldn't replace - even when agents are high enough quality to do video meetings. One-on-one meeting time with customers is something that shouldn't be automated. The systems around the meetings should be - so that front-liners spend nearly 100% of their time with customers. REWARDING 100X IMPACT In a world where companies are able to do so much more with less, where does that excess money go? In our case, much of the savings in this new operating model will flow directly back to those that enabled it. We must reward people that create productivity accordingly. This aligns incentives on both sides. Plus, in a world where your best people create 100x impact, you can't afford to lose them. You should aim to retain these employees for decades. The context they have and their ability to efficiently orchestrate and review will be nearly impossible to replace. Compensation bands of today should be thrown out the door. We're introducing $1 million cash/year salary bands with a path available to nearly everyone in the company if they produce 100x impact by creating or managing AI systems. THE FUTURE Nearly every company will make changes like these. The ones that do it proactively will define what comes next. The future is not fewer people. It's different work, new roles, and better rewards for those who embrace it. We're already seeing entirely new roles emerge, like Agent Managers, that didn't exist a year ago. ClickUp is positioning to lead this shift, not just internally, but for our customers too. I've never been more certain about where we're headed.

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Kim-Mai Cutler
Kim-Mai Cutler@kimmaicutler·
Why has modular construction failed in the United States? "Sweden has used prefabrication to deliver mid- and high-rise housing at competitive cost and high quality for decades, and the explanation has nothing to do with engineering. Sweden has a standardized national building code and, more consequentially, a Public Housing authority that has committed to enough repeat volume to give factories a reason to invest, improve, and stay in business." "In our experience, the building code is as much to blame as land use policy. The U.S. has delegated code development to more than 20,000 local jurisdictions, each with its own byzantine requirements, making it nearly impossible to develop a standard product that can be sold at scale across state lines."
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Phillips P. OBrien
Phillips P. OBrien@PhillipsPOBrien·
Just sent out this post. US losses across the board fighting Iran, but particularly involving aircraft, are revealing worrying signs that US military efficiency is in decline and not what it was. The loss rates are many times higher than Vietnam and Desert Storm. A fish rots from the head down.
Phillips P. OBrien tweet media
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Vuk Vukovic
Vuk Vukovic@wolf_vukovic·
Europeans think that Americans only care about money. They do. They have to. It’s embedded in the system. Americans think Europeans are not hard working enough. They don’t have to. This too is embedded in the system. Read the whole thing to understand why this is 👇
Vuk Vukovic@wolf_vukovic

x.com/i/article/2022…

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Clifford Asness
Clifford Asness@CliffordAsness·
The “use case”
Clifford Asness tweet media
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TBPN
TBPN@tbpn·
Marginal Revolution co-creator @atabarrok says if we could get just one Erdős-level-problem breakthrough in medicine out of AI, it would be an enormous deal — and it's well within the realm of possibility. "We just saw yesterday that AI had proved a new mathematical theorem. So AI is making these inroads into the highest levels of mathematics." "If we could do that for drug discovery — if we could have a 5% reduction in cancer mortality, that would be worth trillions." "The opportunities for AI to make tremendous leaps in human welfare by improving medical care are really exciting. And well within the realm of possibility."
Noam Brown@polynoamial

Today, we’re sharing that a general-purpose internal @openai model achieved a breakthrough on one of the best-known combinatorial geometry problems. Less than 1 year ago frontier AI models were at IMO gold-level performance. I expect this pace of progress to continue.

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ezyrider@ezyrider·
Wonder why people are opposing datacenters ?
Aakash Gupta@aakashgupta

Two data center water crises in two Georgia counties. The brown water went viral. The other one is worse. Morgan County: Meta builds a massive data center campus. Explosive blasting begins. Residential wells go brown. Families are shipping bottled water to their homes in rural Georgia. Water bills climbing 33%. Seventy miles south in Fayette County, a Blackstone-owned data center secretly consumed 29 million gallons through two water connections the county didn't know existed. 44 Olympic swimming pools' worth. Residents complained about low pressure. The county told them to stop watering their lawns. When investigators finally traced the problem, the county billed the developer $147,000 and imposed zero fines. Georgia is in severe to exceptional drought right now. The governor declared a state of emergency last month. Wildfires burning in the southern half of the state. The EPA's top water official admitted under oath she had received zero complaints about data center water contamination before this hearing. Zero. The regulatory infrastructure to monitor this doesn't exist because nobody built it while the buildout was accelerating. Run the national numbers. U.S. data centers consumed 17.4 billion gallons of water directly in 2023. Lawrence Berkeley projects that figure doubling to quadrupling by 2028. A single Google facility in Iowa consumed 1 billion gallons in one year. Texas alone is projected to hit 399 billion gallons by 2030. That's enough to drain Lake Mead by 16 feet in a single year. The power constraint gets all the attention in AI infrastructure. You can't run GPUs without megawatts. But you also can't cool them without water. And unlike power, water has no national grid. Every gallon comes from local aquifers and municipal systems sized for residential neighborhoods. Build fast, draw water, let the county figure it out after the wells go dry.

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doomer
doomer@uncledoomer·
my buddy is a medical device sales guy who sells primarily CPAPs and CPAP accessories, and he says his entire industry is absolutely fucking panicking right now about GLP1s and peptides making people stop being too fat to be able to breathe on their own when they sleep
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