Fabricio Siqueira

@Denistratos @JuanCar40406185 This sounds a lot like Nassim Taleb's barbell strategy and emphasis on surviving and thriving in volatility. Have you read his books?

I only partially lived through the “lost decade” in the market - I started my professional path in May 2004, while the crash that began in September 2000 had already ended by late 2002 / early 2003. And from that point, a strong bull market started, which lasted until October 2007. So most of what I know comes from analyzing what happened and why it happened, as well as from backtesting my own trading system. The collapse from October 2007 to March 2009 was brutal - many who looked like heroes turned out to be empty, mumbling some ridiculous excuses and explanations. As for me - let’s be honest - I didn’t have the experience to properly understand what was happening around me.
I probably overestimate and still overestimate, what happened back then - but the human brain is selective, and I don’t think I can be fully objective about it. If it feels like it was a catastrophe, like some kind of post-apocalyptic world - it wasn’t. Life kept going. People went to work, built families, had kids… restaurants were full. A simple, intuitive example - oil.
During the 2008 crisis, oil prices collapsed from $150 to $35, but global demand fell by only about 1%.
During the severe recession of 1980-82, average annual global demand declined by around 3.5%.
At the peak of the COVID shock, when the world basically stopped, demand fell by about 9-10%. What’s the point? The world keeps moving forward no matter what. And often what looks like a catastrophe on a chart of a specific industry isn’t nearly as dramatic in the bigger picture. What would I do in a new lost decade? The same thing I do now.
Make money in the market with capital protection as the first priority. No emotions.

Thank you for your words, Enrico: I have shared, I share and I will continue to share educational content here. It will just be without feedback from now on. I cannot give an answer as to which one will suit you better, but I can explain the nuances and you will have to make the decision yourself. First. For investing for 10 years, neither of the services will suit you. Firstly, I consider long-term investing a dangerous activity with uncontrollable risks and I have proven this many times in my posts (take a look at the section WHY I DON’T CONSIDER LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS in that post). Secondly, I trade swing. And I never know in advance how long it will last. Historically, these were periods from two months to one and a half years (one time in my practice). To summarize - my task is to make money, fix the profit and wait out the following correction/bear market in cash, opening light positions. And so on until the next swing. Second. The service that is available now - shows how I manage a hedge fund portfolio and my personal portfolio on a daily basis. With limited drawdown and historically annual returns exceeding #SPY. The service that we are thinking to launch next year - is a service with an extremely aggressive strategy, rare trades, potentially high drawdown and potentially high returns. The goal of this service is to show that high returns in the market for a professional is a matter of desire, not opportunity. I myself will trade this strategy only in the service. And I will never apply it in my personal portfolio - it does not fit my risk profile or the hedge fund. As one of the subscribers recently wrote: I will gladly participate in the second service using profits from the first. I agree with this approach.

🧵 THREAD 1/ Your daughter posts something online. She is 19. In college. Trying to figure out what she believes. She shares a political opinion that an algorithm flags as problematic. You do not see it happen. No one notifies you. No one tells her. But 72 hours later, her bank account is frozen. Her student loans are suspended. Her digital ID shows a compliance violation. And there is nothing you can do to protect her.

@Scobleizer In the past, during the golden age of social media, our feeds consisted of the people and groups we followed and what these trusted people shared with us. Now we only see whatever the people in charge decide to show to us

Reshares (formerly known as retweets) are dead. An end of an era in social media.

@denistratos What's your cash % right now?

With higher probability, the correction is over. Green and red days and weeks, SPY will start moving higher. Does that mean a clear sky ahead for the market? No. Watching SPX/M2SL and QQQ/M2SL closely.

IN AUSTRALIA YOU DO NOT HAVE THE CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO SPEAK FREELY...BUT! I have a bill before the Senate which if successful will alter the Australian Constitution to enshrine free speech forever! Support my bill, sign my petition here: senatorbabet.com.au/right-to-free-…

🚨 Premier Minns now has the laws in place for police to start door knocking citizens over social media posts. 40 people a day are getting door knocked in the UK. My hunch is it's about to start in NSW. Here are some guidelines of what to do if the cops come for you. (*Disclaimer - this is not legal advice etc). @LibertariansNSW

It's true that some compliance cars from traditional auto makers lack range, but true EVs like Tesla or BYD have as much range as petrol cars. I can't see a situation of a person who can't charge at home at all - you can use any power outlet! Outside of home, chargers are everywhere these days. Even in the road in regional areas, it's rare to travel more than 50km without seeing a charger. Hotels, restaurants, shopping centres, tourist attractions, supermarkets, many have chargers in their car park! Depreciation is a reflection of improvements in tech - batteries get better and cheaper every year. I don't know anything about 400v architecture, but I'm happy with today's superchargers that take 20 minutes to charge the battery. When travelling, I usually stop for lunch or a snack and when I'm finished the battery is already full.

@fabrisiq @iyche @craigkellyAFEE I don't hate EV's. They lack range and charging is not practical for most people. If charging can't be done at home then one is at the mercy of the public charging system. Which is still scant and expensive. EV depreciation is horrific. Also, the 400v architecture is lacking.

GO WOKE, GO BROKE Honda is the latest company to pay the penalty for following the woke agenda. It’s misguided pursuit of electric cars has seen the company post it’s first full year loss in early 70 years as a listed corporation. And it’s not just any loss - it a massive 2.5 trillion Yen loss ($22.4 billion) loss, after it slammed the brakes on a failed electric vehicle strategy. news.com.au/technology/mot…

@HarleyD1008 @iyche @craigkellyAFEE No one pays me directly, but I save a lot of money driving a tesla, and it's much better tech - the performance of a supercar for the price of a normal car. Why do you hate EVs so much? Genuine question, just trying to understand.

@fabrisiq @iyche @craigkellyAFEE How much are you paid to be a shill? I'm looking for work myself. I doubt I can bullshit as good as you, but I'll try. Tell your handlers.

@HarleyD1008 @iyche @craigkellyAFEE Good luck finding cheap petrol until the war is over

@fabrisiq @iyche @craigkellyAFEE What you said, apply that to yourself. Pethaki

@HarleyD1008 @iyche @craigkellyAFEE Okay, you are one of those who knows nothing about electric cars and likes to spread FUD. The joke is on you for publicly showing your ignorance to the world.

@fabrisiq @iyche @craigkellyAFEE 😅😂🤣

@HarleyD1008 @iyche @craigkellyAFEE I never charge overnight because it costs me $12 for 500km range. I charge during the day because it's free with solar. Still, what's wrong with charging the car overnight? It's cheaper than paying $100 to refill the tank of an old tech car at a dirty petrol station, and faster

@fabrisiq @iyche @craigkellyAFEE Overnight charging is the downfall. Nice try

@HarleyD1008 @iyche @craigkellyAFEE Faster, free fuel, no maintenance, no engine vibration, easier and more fun to drive, better software, no need to go to petrol station

@iyche @craigkellyAFEE How are EV's superior? 🤔

Just in case you don’t know: If you want to see a global crisis, let Australia run out of fuel… Did you know that Australia is the 22nd largest exporter on earth. 15th largest country by measure of GDP. As far as minerals go, we are the 3rd largest exporter of minerals on earth but per capita, we are by far the largest. We are the 3rd largest overall energy exporter on the planet, largest of the OECD countries. We are the Largest exporter of iron ore #1 $87,700,000,000 87.7 billion dollars or 55.9% of the global total. Largest lithium producer #1 61,000 tons 46.9% of global supply. Largest exporter of zinc #1 $2,2100,000,000 2.21 billion dollars Largest exporter for barley #1 $2,370,000,000 2.37 billion dollars Largest exporter for Bauxite #1 110 million tonnes Largest exporters of Liquid Natural Gas #1 in volume #3 in revenue. $27,400,000,000 27.4 billion dollars Largest wheat exporter #1 $10,200,000,000 Largest exporter of sheep #1 49% of global supply $1,500,000,000 Largest exporter of opals #1 90% of global supply. Largest exporter of manganese #1 $1,390,000,000 2nd Largest beef exporter after Brazil. 12 billion dollars. $12,200,000,000 2nd Largest gold exporter #2 310 tons annually 34.2 billion dollars 3rd Largest grain exporter #3 14% of global supply. Large exporter of copper #3 $64,200,000,000 - 7.1% 2nd largest exporter of uranium. #2 4.1 billion tonnes We have 30% of the known global uranium reserves. 5th Largest exporter of silver #5 Number 8 exporter of aluminium #8 $4.1 billion dollars 4.5% of global supply 26th Largest exporter of oil #26 $7,540,000,000 $7.54 billion dollars Australia is the 4th Largest coal producer of coal on earth. We are the Largest coal exporter on earth. 50% of worlds sea born coal comes from Australia. 150 million coming from the mighty Hunter which is the largest single coal export port on earth. It is completely irresponsible to allow a country that feeds and powers the world to get into a situation where we may need to pull up trucks because we have a fuel shortage… And you still have to work and get only 50% of your earnings? You kidding me! Where’s the money?

Two things happened in Australia this week that should make all of us stop and think. First — Missiles that Australia ordered from the United States have been diverted “until further notice.” Let that sink in. @AUKUSforum See aukusforum.com/aukus-news/f/a…

@AlboMP Best way to keep us safe is by not getting involved in useless wars

We're focused on keeping Australians safe.

@senatorbabet Australia needs to preemptively reactivate coal power and invest in nuclear to minimise the impacts from higher oil prices

The war in Iran is about 3 things: 1. The US dollar 2. Israels dominance of the region 3. Oil It has little to do with the freedom of the Iranian people. Go for it in the comments.

Remember that I predicted a long time ago that President Obama will attack Iran because of his inability to negotiate properly-not skilled!

Unrealized gains tax for Gen-Z: You buy a Pokémon card for $50. Someone offers you $500 for it. You say no. You love that card. You're keeping it. The government says: "Cool, but that card is worth $500 now. You owe us $100 in taxes." You: "…I didn't sell it." Government: "Don't care. Pay up." You don't have $100 lying around. So you're forced to sell the card you love just to pay a tax on money you never received. Next month? That card drops back to $50. Your card is gone. Your money is gone. And the government shrugs. That's a wealth tax on unrealized gains. They don't pay you back the tax... Now picture this. Your mom calls you crying. She has to sell the house she raised you in. Not because she can't afford it. She's lived there 30 years. It's paid off. But some website says it's worth more now and the government says she owes $15,000 she doesn't have. So she sells your childhood home. The kitchen where she made you breakfast. The doorframe where she marked your height every birthday. Gone. To pay a tax on money that was never real. Now picture the opposite. Your dad put everything into his small business. For 20 years he built it from nothing. One year the business is "valued" at $2 million on paper. He owes a massive tax bill. He empties his savings. Sells his truck. Borrows money. Pays it. Next year the market crashes. His business is worth $200,000. He lost everything to pay a tax on a number that doesn't exist anymore. Does the government give him his money back? No. Does the government give him his truck back? No. Does the government care? No. They sold this idea as "taxing billionaires." But billionaires have armies of lawyers, offshore accounts, and trusts. They'll be fine. You know who won't be fine? Your mom. Your dad. Your neighbor with a small business. The farmer down the road who's had the same land for four generations and now has to sell it because dirt got expensive. You're not taxing wealth. You're taxing people for owning things. It's like getting a parking ticket for a car you might drive somewhere someday. They want you to own nothing and be happy. To fund the fraud, waste and abuse of the welfare state they created. There is enough money. More tax isn't needed. It's all a lie. But you've been gaslit into believing this is a rich vs poor debate. I hope you understand what's at stake.

@thecavemommy A friend of my friend is my friend + × + = + A friend of my enemy is my enemy + × - = - An enemy of my friend is my enemy - × + = - An enemy of my enemy is my friend - × - = +

I’ve literally had math geniuses try to explain to me how a negative times a negative equals a positive, and I still don’t get it It doesn’t. If you have nothing, and then more nothing, you don’t have something. You have nothing Math is a psyop!

@SoJustFollowMe @Pan_Gu_ This is not for the long run, and it's only a small % of the portfolio. I do this as an insurance against increased volatility when I feel the market is about to correct or crash. It works like a leveraged short of the s&p 500 with limited downside.

@fabrisiq @Pan_Gu_ This is a common - and very dangerous - tactic, and I don’t know a single person who’s made money with it in the long run.

Portfolio ended up $7,000 today. How did your portfolio perform? Trades: • Added to $IGV, T-Bills • Sold $TLT (US Treasury 20+) Why? See post “Deliberate Aggression → Absolute Control”, point 3 Open Positions: • $PLTR, $NFLX, $ORCL, $NBIS, $SOFI, $HOOD, $IBM, $ADBE, $NKE, $TGT, $NOW, $CRM – all LEAPS calls • $IGV, $IEF (US Treasury 7-10) – all LEAPS calls • T-Bills & T-Notes – cash equivalents ⚠️ Please don’t ask me what’s next: First – I don’t know, no crystal ball. Second – everything I could/needed to say is in my posts. Scroll down. Third – I can’t answer, UAE law treats it as personalized financial advice. Fourth – my public portfolio is there. Draw your own conclusions. ⚠️ Option strikes & expiries aren’t shared. Full allocation with position sizes is shared monthly – on the last Saturday of each month.