Fantasy Points Data

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RB Leaders in YPC when first contact was initiated before the line of scrimmage 1. Bijan Robinson (2.64)👀 2. Jonathan Taylor (1.35) 3. Javonte Williams (1.27) 4. Chris Rodriguez (1.04) @FantasyPtsData

Kenneth Walker is now the league leader in forced missed tackles since entering the NFL, with 245 (per @FantasyPtsData) - His 0.27 MTF/Att also ranks first among all RBs in that span as well I think I'm finally ready to hop back aboard the Kenneth Walker hype train and be hurt all over again

I continue to find more reasons to dislike TreVeyon Henderson at his current ADP every day I took a deeper look at his 2025 Week 9-15 "breakout" stretch of play, to see if it could be replicated in 2026 (the bull case) - I'm extremely doubtful that it can be Henderson averaged an absurd 4.23 YBCO/Att in that 6-game stretch - 85.0% of his total rushing yards came on plays where he saw at least 3.0 YBCO/Att During that stretch, Henderson faced the #1, #2, #4, #9, # 14, and #16 defenses in terms of most fantasy points allowed to RBs in 2025 per @FantasyPtsData) If we just look at rush attempts when RBs saw fewer than 2.5 YBCO/Att, here is how Henderson ranked last season (min. 50 rush attempts) - 1.62 YPC (RB46) - 28.6% Success Rate (RB43) - 0.07 MTF/Att (RB40) - 1.71 YACO/Att (RB42) Henderson was among the worst RBs in the league when there wasn't a full runway in front of him - The Patriots OL should be better in 2026, but they won't have as easy a schedule as they did in 2025

Quinshon Judkins is another RB who should benefit immensely from a re-hauled OL this offseason - I will continue to take advantage of the "injury discount" we're seeing with him in Best Ball contests right now (RB24 ADP) The Browns added 3 offensive linemen in free agency, and drafted 2 more in April (one of which was taken with the 9th overall pick) - They also hired a notoriously run-heavy OC as their new HC (Todd Monken), his run game coordinator (Travis Switzer), and his OL coach The Browns OL ranked 31st in run blocking in 2025, and here is how it affected Judkins - He saw the 4th-fewest YBCO/Att (1.36 yards) - He saw the 3rd-highest percentage of stacked boxes (53.9%) - He had the 5th-highest percentage of yards after contact (62.2%) The Browns also drafted two WRs with their 24th overall pick (KC Concepcion) and 39th overall pick (Denzel Boston) - Those additions alongside more competent QB play can reduce the rate of stacked boxes Judkins faces in 2026 When he saw at least 3.0 YBCO/Att, Judkins ranked as follows last season: - 9.86 YPC (RB14) - 0.29 MTF/Att (RB6) - 3.51 YACO/Att (RB5) Data per @FantasyPtsData

Are we so sure that Jaylen Waddle is that much better than Courtland Sutton? Are we certain he's the better Best Ball pick at cost? Here is how they've compared over the last two seasons (per @FantasyPtsData) - Waddle was the more efficient WR, barely, but Sutton was more productive and effective in terms of separation ability We've seen some hype for Waddle's move to Denver, under the assumption that he is the bona fide WR1 right away, but I think people are underestimating Sutton - I expect the #1 target in this offense to fluctuate weekly (Sean Payton has also confirmed as much) Waddle is moving to a better, more pass-heavy offense and will likely see a more favorable route tree, but I am not fully convinced he has WR1 upside - He's still a solid pick at his ADP, but I am not "all in" on drafting him significantly more than I am Sutton at his lower cost Sutton has recorded the 4th-most performances of 13.0+ 1/2 PPR points over the last 3 seasons (25 total) - Yes, season-long ceiling is lowered with the addition of Waddle, but I still like his spike-week upside, thanks to his usage in the red zone

Highest Catchable Throw Rates in the Red Zone [2025, min. 30 attempts] Mac Jones - 87.2% Josh Allen - 78.5% Jalen Hurts - 76.9% Tua Tagovailoa - 76.4% Cam Ward - 75.9%

I stand by the belief that TreVeyon Henderson is one of the worst picks on the board right now whereas Colston Loveland is one of my favorites Henderson recorded 2.5 YPC and -2.57 EPA per play across his 4 playoff games - Loveland averaged 12.5 Targets/G, 96.5 Receiving YPG, and 16.7 FPG across his 2 playoff games Despite being the league leader in YBCO/Att (3.16 yards), Henderson was outperformed by Rhamondre Stevenson in the following categories during the regular season - Explosive Run Rate (5.2% vs. 5.3%) - Success Rate (48.6% vs. 50.5%) - MTF/Att (0.12 vs. 0.20) - YACO/Att (1.86 vs. 2.64) - YPRR (0.98 vs. 1.46) - FPG (10.6 vs. 13.0) Henderson's best stretch of play in Weeks 9-15 (21.0 FPG) only occurred because Stevenson was injured - Henderson was largely inferior as a rusher, receiver, and pass-blocker compared to Stevenson throughout the season Meanwhile, Loveland will enjoy 82 vacated targets on a team that is very likely to lean more toward heavier personal sets in 2025 (2TE and 3TE sets) - Loveland averaged 16.0 FPG over the Bears final 6 games in 2025, where they played most of their offensive snaps with 2 TEs on the field - When the Bears ran 3TE sets last season, Loveland averaged 4.66 YPRR Loveland is about to see a huge uptick in route participation in 2026 (in heavy personnel, with fewer receivers to compete with for targets) - In the 6 games that Loveland ran 25+ routes, he averaged 9.5 Targets/G and 19.3 FPG Then we can add in the fact Henderson has one of the worst playoff schedules for Best Ball contests, whereas Loveland has one of the best - Loveland has a very good chance to finish as the TE1 overall in 2026 Data per @FantasyPtsData

I still see the doubtful among the righteous when it comes to which Jaguars WR to draft at their current ADP in Best Ball Contests I am here to show you the light! Can I interest you in our new lord and savior, Parker Washington? Metrics per @FantasyPtsData

Some fun Pass TD upside for the Saints in 2026.. Pass Rate over Expected (PROE) inside the 10: 1) Vikings: 14.9% 2) Rams: 11.1% … 31) Commanders: -13.6% … 32) SAINTS w/ Shough: -29.7% Identifying significant outliers/regression can help win in fantasy @FantasyPtsData

I've seen some hype and optimism for Kyle Monangai in Best Ball contests, which feels a little displaced to me - Kyle Monangai ADP: 91.0 (RB33) - D'Andre Swift ADP: 53.0 (RB23) Here is how the two compared in 2025 (per @FantasyPtsData) While the Swift was higher in almost every rushing and receiving category, Monangai's metrics are enough to make it feel like he's a solid value pick in the 8th round - My issue is that Monangai was a near non-factor until Swift injured his groin in Week 9, and continued to pop up on the injury report weekly for the rest of the season Here is how Monangai performed prior to Swift getting injured: - 6.0 Rush Attempts/G - 26.6 Rushing YPG - 4.43 YPC - 5.2 FPG Almost as discouraging was how he was utilized in Week 14 onward (including the playoffs): - 9.8 Rush Attempts/G - 36.4 Rushing YPG - 3.70 YPC - 7.9 FPG I would rather take Swift at his ADP given the consistent upside he flashed behind one of the best OLs in the league last season (when healthy) - Monangai is in the ADP range where I much prefer taking a QB or TE over him

Most YPC when first contact is initiated beyond the line of scrimmage [last 3 years] + @FantasyPtsData 1. De'Von Achane (8.66) 2. Jahmyr Gibbs (7.92) 3. Saquon Barkley (7.65) 4. Derrick Henry (7.58) 5. Breece Hall (7.27) TreVeyon Henderson last year = 7.69 YPC 👀

@HectorLRamos @ScottBarrettDFB @KeithFlemming Passing Depth of Target tool

@ScottBarrettDFB @KeithFlemming @FantasyPtsData Where can I find this in the data suite?

Most to Least Accurate QBs by Catchable Throw Rate [2024-2025] + @FantasyPtsData

Rams decided to go pass heavy i20 in 2025 - here is their PROE i20 the past few seasons: 2025: +9.1% (1st by a lot) 2024: -7.7% (27th) 2023: -2.4% (13th) It certainly felt like a deliberate MVP push for Stafford and it likely won’t be THAT aggressive again @FantasyPtsData

Most fantasy points lost to drops in 2025 among TEs (not accounting for potential YAC) Theo Johnson - 24.3 Mark Andrews - 22.1 Hunter Henry - 18.5 Dawson Knox - 14.4 Travis Kelce - 13.8

In Ricky Pearsall’s 6 relatively healthy games last season, he ranked 1st in Route Win Rate (23.4%) and 2nd in Average Separation Score (0.163) Per @FantasyPtsData I really think he’s one of the best value/high upside picks on the board at his current ADP

Most fantasy points lost to drops in 2025 among WRs (not accounting for potential YAC) Chris Olave - 52.2 Rome Odunze - 35.5 Amon-Ra St. Brown - 32.0 Jordan Addison - 30.3 Marvin Harrison - 29.4

2025 Explosive Run Rate (min. 100 carries): ➜ Kenneth Walker - 8.1% (2nd-best) ➜ Isiah Pacheco - 0.8% (3rd-worst) The Chiefs' run game in 2026 🚀🚀 (📊: @FantasyPtsData)

Bo Nix in 2026 (min 200 attempts) + CPOE - 0.5% (26th of 36 QBs) + Catchable Throw% - 73.4% (T-25th) + Off Target% - 18.1% - (T-7th worst) via @FantasyPtsData

Just a reminder... In 2024 Isaiah Likely among 47 qual TEs (per @FantasyPtsData) Target per route run % - 15th Yards per route run - 9th First downs per route run - 7th