il fenomeno (golden boot mode)

spent a little more time than needed but here's my full thesis & positioning for 2026! fenomenocap.substack.com/p/2026-be-water predictions: → $BTC surpasses $150K → consumer apps >> blockchain infrastructure → launchpads momentum will fade → crypto gambling and sports betting will return → on-chain equities will be the next major vertical → @circle will challenge @tether's dominance → robotics will thrive, just not on-chain → DePIN interest returns → infofi will become irrelevant → crypto M&A and PE activity will accelerate

foam rolling is extremely underrated for recovery and longevity

this is actually a crazy move - big ups to @FASingapore and @SGPremierLeague

TLDR: just fuck every night and you'll live a great life

to have a chance at growing a small account means having to take extreme risks, which means having higher chances of being taken out of the game. i just dont see other way to grow capital in that situation (purely from trading ofc). the problem is that when we have a small account, and i traded with a small 5figs account for a while, you kinda cherish it a lot, at least i did, to the point its suffocating to risk taking. i've gotten less risk adverse as the account scaled, opposed to what's expected. dont know why, but when i was trading like 20k-40k, i was always protecting it like it was all i had, because it kinda was. i wouldn't leave a cex, because i was afraid to be drained, yet the best opportunities were outside that apparent protection. this is not a post to be reckless, most people should just stuck to safe, reliable investments, and not bother with it because they're going to screw it up. but the people that dont listen to this, will have to find a way to take abormal risk, highly subject to luck and timing. it is what it is. i dont think its impossible though.

Prediction: We won’t have UBI. We’ll have UCI. (universal credit income, or whatever else it might be called) Assuming labour will cease to exist, governments will have to pay you money, for you to fulfill the consumption side of the economic equation. While everyone believes that people will get an equal paycheck similar to stimulus payments, I believe it’ll be akin to airdrops, where each person is credited based on their behavior, actions, social score, etc. TL;DR: take the chinese social credit system and combine it with UBI.

Never doom. Stop being pessimistic. The person who wakes up everyday and says they're a fucking loser and nothing ever good happens to them will exist in a reality where nothing ever does. ENDURE EVERYTHING.

touche sir and thank you for the detailed input 🫡 fully agree that we should be spending more time sharing the tech and trajectory of robotics players! the point i just wanted to drive home in the above post was that the hyperfinancialization of these projects really dilutes the value proposition of teams that are really doing good work

Physical AI is going to be the biggest industry in the world within 10-20 years, and is going to need the internet to grow in three new dimensions: - the internet of spaces - the internet of sensors - the internet of actuators There will be many technical, cultural and economical challenges and opportunities on the way, and the best parts of web3 have enormous contributions to make - if it can survive the worst parts of web3. There’s a rich technical and philosophical foundation to build from, which is great, but we also have to deal with the toxic cultural legacy of the web3 industry. Even though enormous amounts of web3 money have poured into (web2) robotics, the industry is skeptical and dismissive of what web3 can bring to the table, and worried of being associated with the scams, rugs and predatory financial nihilism that stained the movement’s reputation over the last few years. Unfortunately, the loudest voices remaining in the web3 community are talking about price action rather than how to actually win. This includes you, OP. If a robotics company comes across your original post, there’d be very little reason for them to curiously investigate what projects like @Auki, @GEODNET or @BitRobotNetwork actually bring to the table - because you’ve signalled that the story is the token PA, not the technology, traction and trajectory. I am a super firm believer that web3 will color the world of physical AI immensely - but it will do so in spite of posts like this. Being cringe and shilling is worse than FUD. Cashtags are associated with insincere, misguided and predatory projects. Talk about the tech. We aren’t suffering from FUD, we are suffering from a community that has alienated the rest of the market.

i genuinely feel that eastworlds is a great initiative but i dont think getting them to launch a token and go all hands on deck to meet the graduation requirements ($5M FDV for 7D + team vetting) makes plenty of sense? the north star of robotics companies should be to get their robots to perform the necessary and then produce commercial fleets aka data + financing many of these robotics team are not even crypto-native and they are still required to convince a community that what they are doing is world-changing and shill their token to retail users that mainly care about degen returns rather than what these robots can and will actually achieve? (lets not forget whales and institutions that enjoy the good ol' cabal pump and dump) tokens that were launched during the openclaw/moltbook hype were characterized as memes and couldnt even sustain their valuations for more than 3 days (e.g. $CLAWNCH, $CLAWD) even highly anticipated launches like @FabricFND/@openmind_agi ($ROBO) suffer from brutal PA due to current market behaviour towards public sales/ICOs, let alone non crypto-native teams? however, i do think og projects such as @codecopenflow @Auki @homebrewrobots will stand to benefit from eastworlds given how they have been battle-tested and are still building strong

@goodalexander @0xNairolf i would think a chinese cbdc too?

@0xNairolf Swiss CBDC will I think

real question: what would it actually take for a new stablecoin to reach USDT/USDC scale? is it even possible?

imo @claudeai's perfect role is to be a chief of staff equipped with the best research capabilities, bar none

if there's an investor out there that is very well-positioned for a future shaped by AI mania and commodities supercycle, that will be @CrucibleCap (cruciblecap.xyz/portfolio)

Practice having no positions opened on your perp account. Be ultra picky before entering a trade.

spent the last few hours answering questions from strangers on the internet while sitting on a plane and the thing that keeps striking me is how similar every question sounds once you strip away the context the BB analyst making $200K wants to know if his life has meaning. the 20-year-old in a frat wants to know if he is on the right path. the guy running a $15M environmental services company cannot sleep because his leverage ratio scares him even though his covenants are fine. the first-year law student wants someone to tell him the career pivot will work out. the immigrant who got laid off wants to know he is not falling behind permanently the details are different. the feeling underneath is identical. am I going to be okay we pretend that money and status and titles fix this. they do not. I sit in rooms with people who control nine-figure portfolios and they are nervous about the same things as everyone else. they just have more expensive language for it. the fund manager calls it "risk management." the analyst calls it "career strategy." the 20-year-old calls it "figuring out my path." same anxiety wearing different suits I watched a grown man worth more than most people will earn in ten lifetimes throw a tantrum in a conference room because someone questioned his assumption in a model. not his competence. not his track record. an assumption in a spreadsheet. a cell in Excel. he turned red and raised his voice because for 15 seconds he felt like he might be wrong about something and his entire identity could not absorb that possibility that is not a professional disagreement. that is a kid on a playground who got told he is not the fastest runner Schopenhauer wrote that humans are not rational beings who occasionally feel emotions. we are emotional beings who occasionally think rationally. the rationality is the exception. the feeling is the baseline. every framework we build in finance and in business and in life is an attempt to impose order on a brain that is fundamentally running on fear and desire and the need to be seen as competent by other people who are also running on fear and desire the most dangerous version of this is the person who thinks they have outgrown it. the one who believes that enough success or enough money or enough status has made them rational. that person is not more rational. they are less accountable. nobody around them pushes back anymore so the irrational impulses go unchecked and get rebranded as conviction and vision and leadership the best operators I know are the ones who understand that they are still unreasonable kids underneath everything. they lose their temper over small things. they take criticism personally even when it is constructive. they make emotional decisions and reverse-engineer a logical justification after the fact. the difference is they know they do this. they have systems to catch it. they hire people who are allowed to tell them when they are being stupid. they build in a 24-hour delay before any decision made while angry the worst operators are the ones who think they have evolved past it. they confuse pattern recognition with wisdom. they confuse wealth with emotional maturity. they confuse the silence of the people around them with agreement when it is actually just fear Nietzsche said that the most common form of human stupidity is forgetting what one is trying to do. I think the more common form is forgetting what one is. which is a complicated animal that learned to use spreadsheets but never stopped being afraid of the dark none of us outgrow being unreasonable. the question is whether we build a life that accounts for it or one that pretends it does not exist thanks for the questions today. you are all going to be fine. even the ones who do not feel like it right now

Quite sobering tweet. I think crypto's "easy money era" lasted 6 years from 2017 to 2022. There were less people & tickers. Less exchanges & less markets. Liquidity + attention was more focused. After FTX collapsed, the crypto we knew died imo. Binance really went off the leash (in a bad way). Extraction era began. Memecoins casino (98% lost money), celebrity coins (all rugged), the trenches culture (you gave away your money to scam KOLs). To top it all off we got the most crypto (retarded) president that completely killed this industry. The only products left to survive are the ones you won't make much money on: - Stablecoins (can't make money off of it) - RWA (can't make money off of it) - Prediction market (most of you will lose $) - AI (most of you won't make any $) - Perp DEXes (most of you will lose $) You won't make any serious easy money no more. Adapt and develop real skills or die.

Everyone is bored. 1. That means the people you actually want to talk to have time to reply. DM and interact with them. They are the same people that would probably not have time to respond during the bull. 2. Build your runway. If you came out of the last bull with a couple years covered then you have room to breathe. If not, find a way to build that up. 3. Build conviction or decide this is not the place for you. In 2018 and 2022, crypto was not an obvious place to spend your time. In 2018 the space was close to being dead. In 2022 after the NFT run, CEX blow ups and LUNA, the entire space was seen as a grift. A lot of people decided there were greener pastures and that they did not want to spend more time here. That's fine. But you need to make that decision. 4. If you made mistakes last cycle, take them seriously. Identify how you felt when you were euphoric, what kept you from selling and what lead to you revenge trading. 5. All of my best group chats got built in the bear, there's something about going through the pain of losing money and confidence with the same people you come up with. By the time things heat up, the starting lineup is already set. 6. You have the tools now to build something. Think about the real problems. What do people actually want? What is extremely broken? Start building a solution yourself. If you're non-technical then team up with someone technical to sanity check your vibe coding. 7. Build an audience, share your thoughts in public consistently. Or spend time in TG/Discord and become a known face with respectable opinions. Personally I was never a solo trader and attribute a lot of my success to the people I befriended along the way. None of these are guarantees of success, crypto was always a place that chewed most ppl up and spit em out. Survivorship bias from the ones that made it while 90% of people dropped off. This isn't any different in 2013, 2017, 2021 or today. So you need delusional optimism, grit and conviction that you will make it against the statistics.

I beg everyone in crypto to read this in full. I expected this to be another case of social engineering, likely some recruiter/job offer shit. I was very wrong. And the depth of the operation and personas makes me think they already have multiple other teams on lock. 😳

Crypto easy money era has ended. Historically, most easy money periods last 3-7 years: - California Gold Rush lasted 7 years. - Tulip mania lasted 3 - The dot-com bubble about 5 years before the Nasdaq dumped by 78% - Japan's bubble was 6 years, then Nikkei took 34 years to recover So most speculative booms in history last 3-7 years. Crypto easy money started in 2017 with ICOs. Then DeFi summer 2020. NFTs in 2021. Airdrops. Points farming. Memecoins. That's ~8 years of easy money. We are already past that as every easy money model has been discovered, exploited, or arbitraged to max competition. Philosophical hard-forks like BTC -> BTC Gold or ETH -> ETH classic are over as crypto ossified not just technically. ICOs got regulated. Airdrops get farmed by industrialized sybils. Memecoin launches went from community fun projects to extraction tools. The gold rush analogy seems quite good here as FOMOs end the same way: Surface deposits get exhausted and then industrial mining takes over. (Literally same happened to BTC mining moving from retail to institutions who even IPOed from BTC mining.) So here’s where crypto is now: TradFi suits moving in, tokenization, RWAs, corpo-sloppo permissioned chains, and regulation. The Trump family & insiders are the last to get easy money from crypto. For retail, the surface easy money gold picking is gone. What's left to earn requires real infra, real users, real revenue which means more specialization, specific knowledge and REAL hard effort. Not sure how many of us who got easy money are ready to grind harder now. So many builders, KOLs, projects are extracting as much as they (we) can before leaving crypto coz adapting to the new hard-money period is gonna be hard. Question is: where to pivot for easy money? Asking for a friend.

This is the reverse Covid moment. Over the next 2 months as the impact of the oil shock finally hits the US (oil and its derivs power the world economy) - import inflation and supply constraints will result in rates rising, alongside with easy capital being diverted into the defence sector.