Haibo

A prelude to the yearly Bitcoin chart to confirm the Evening Star reversal pattern on the secular bull market?

Fed began QE in response to the GFC on 25 Nov 2008 39 days later, Satoshi mined the genesis block on 3 Jan 2009 BTC has moved on US liquidity impulses since then US GDP is on fire and US02Y is sending Fed can't stoke the fire BTC bottoms much later than most expect imo

I observed every single $BTC bear cycle. Key update: Practically every single cycle, we complete a 5-wave correction. We also tend to form two significant bear market highs. The first comes immediately after the initial top on the first major retrace. This is the complacency high, the point where the majority believe the bull market is back. It's exactly why I took shorts from 96K down to 70K this cycle. Once that complacency high is established, price usually pushes to fresh lows as the macro correction continues. We saw this in 2014, 2022, and again in 2026. In 2018, price didn't make a new low after the complacency bounce, but the overall structure remained very similar with multiple retests. Shortly afterwards, we typically get a dead cat bounce. Across the previous cycles, this dead cat bounce establishes the base low. By this stage, most market participants have already been wrecked after buying into complacency, sentiment is at its worst, and everyone begins aggressively piling into shorts. Delta flips, shorts get squeezed, and price rallies. At the end of the day, it's simply market psychology. After the dead cat base low is formed, the final bottom is usually established following the second major retest. We saw this in 2015, 2018, and 2022. Fast forward to today, BTC has swept the dead cat base low and completed the same 5-wave corrective structure we've seen throughout previous cycles. The only thing that makes me hesitate is the timing. Every previous bear market has lasted roughly 365 days before putting in the final bottom. If the low is already in this cycle, it would have formed in around 260 days, roughly 100 days earlier than every previous cycle. That's why I'm still 50/50. Structure suggests the bottom is in. Timing suggests it isn't. Eventually, cycle lengths will change. The mistake is assuming they never will. We need to be prepared for that possibility. We'll likely have our answer over the next couple of months, but it's worth pointing out that, from a structural perspective, every corrective wave has now been completed and the lows appear to have been established. There is a very good chance we get some chop from here, but in terms of the low being in, I think it's more likely we form higher lows than make significant new lows.

The further the cycle goes, the more people will convince themselves that this time it's different. You already see it. SUPER CYCLE BRO. BTC STRATEGIC RESERVE BRO. PARADIGM SHIFT BRO. There is always a reason. Last cycle the reason was that institutions were entering. That also did not end well. In the next months, we will see the super cycle narrative increase in strength. At some point, it will be dominant. That’s when we want to get out.

$DXY

BREAKING: Odds Bitcoin hits $100,000 this year have doubled to 20%

We buy on red days so that on green days we can relax and not feel any FOMO. More red days will come in the next weeks. Remember today's feeling if you feel FOMO. That will help you deploy. I don't think we are entering a bull market yet.

$BTC buy & Sell setups ( Mid-term) Current structure suggests a potential relief rally before the next leg down. As long as Bitcoin holds the $58.5K–$60K support zone, a short-term bounce toward the $65K–$66K resistance area remains possible. •Buy Zone: $58,500 – $60,000 •Target: $65,000 – $66,000 Once price reaches the sell range, I expect the rally to exhaust and form an ABC corrective structure, opening the door for a deeper decline. •Sell Zone: $65,000 – $66,000 •Downside Target: ~$53,000

Do you think $BTC at 30K reasonable？ for example BTC/GOLD reach ~9 level and gold at ~3.5K, that makes BTC at 30.5K.😎

It remains the same. Just as we saw during April and May, the market appears to be repeating the same strategy pushing investor psychology to the extreme and fueling FOMO. At this stage, expectations are gradually turning into conviction, while large market participants appear to be deliberately creating bullish signals that reinforce that belief. Ironically, price volatility is lower than it was in April and May, yet investors' confidence and expectations are even stronger. The reasons are straightforward. The market has already gone through a meaningful correction, followed by an extended period of sideways price action that has worn investors down. On top of that, Bitcoin has once again successfully defended the $60,000 level, while a wide range of technical indicators, cycle models, and on-chain metrics are pointing toward a "knee" or even a market bottom. Under these conditions, a very natural mindset begins to emerge: "As long as I'm buying spot Bitcoin rather than trading futures with leverage, this is probably the safest place to buy." What concerns me is that this psychology itself appears to be intentionally engineered. Fear indicators may still be showing Extreme Fear, yet investors themselves are holding stronger conviction than ever before during that very period of fear. Of course, my view could change if this prolonged sideways range were genuinely accompanied by clear evidence of a meaningful trend reversal or long-term accumulation. But based on the data available today, I don't believe that's the case. In the short term, I believe the market will continue doing everything it can to maximize investor psychology and fuel even more FOMO. However, the moment everyone becomes convinced is precisely when I believe the market is most likely to move in the opposite direction.