findaway
2.1K posts


This is a staggering finding. Does probability get taught anymore?
YouGov@YouGov
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? £50,000: 73% 50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21%
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@MelissaReddy_ Finally someone that agrees with me that Croatia was their only good game. I saw things in that attacking performance I’d rarely seen by England, that was replaced by mostly dross with the odd smattering of excitement.
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The view that Thomas Tuchel was defenceless as England were already retreating against Argentina and it’s a consequence of “not being in our DNA like it is in Spanish DNA or in Argentinian-Brazilian DNA, to take the ball and control the game with the ball” ignores the reality that *he* purposely selected a squad (with a host of fitness question marks) for functionality over flair.
He left out the best passers, the players who can dictate and decide a game with the ball. He did take the press-resistant Kobbie Mainoo, only to not give him a minute. Tuchel had said after announcing the squad that he had so many players pushing for a start and he’d rotate, but it was clear he didn’t have faith in many that he called up.
In his own words: “Players feel the love and trust of their coach and if there are doubts, you don’t play to the same level. In the end, it comes down to that…”
The squad selection did not scream England were going to impose themselves at the World Cup and they didn’t. For all the talk of “building the best possible team not the most talented players,” they got to the semi-finals on the back of individual brilliance from Bellingham and Kane.
Bar a stanza against Croatia, the team did not play well. The defensive resilience and attitude against Mexico was impressive in the circumstances of altitude and the man disadvantage. It was also helped, as Wayne Rooney pointed out after that game, by Mexico “putting balls in the box and allowing us to head it out, for Pickford to come and punch and take the pressure off his teammates. I think if Mexico played a little bit more around the box, and made us try and get to the ball, it would have been more difficult.”
To assume the same defensive stance could work against the best player on the planet pulling the strings - “we entered through the inside, the outside, because we created opportunities with crosses, through-balls” - with absolutely no risk for Argentina to worry about, was welcoming the defeat with open arms.
Messi and co were staggered that England didn’t create jeopardy for them. That they didn’t have an outlet to stretch the game, putting pressure on ARG’s centre-backs and fullbacks. Scaloni had even pre-empted they would and had feared getting done on the break, with their previous games showing it was for very good reason.
But, as Messi said, “we felt England didn’t want it anymore” and Scaloni sensed “there was blood in the water and we went for it,” which is seen with the introduction of De Paul allowing Leo to drift right and specifically in the Lautaro sub with no need for a proper left-back anymore.
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@tecumseh97 @MMatters22596 You can admit you were wrong now….🤦♂️
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@talkSPORT Why would a German want England to win the World Cup 🤔
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@gurgavin At least tag me if you’re just going to copy what I said you tard
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PAYPAL SHARES ARE UP TODAY ON A POTENTIAL $53 BILLION TAKEOVER OFFER FROM STRIPE
PAYPAL
-> MAKING $5 BILLION+ A YEAR AND GROWING
-> BUYING BACK 7% OF THE COMPANY EVERY YEAR
-> TRADING AT JUST 9X EARNINGS BEFORE THE NEWS AND JUST 11X THE BUYOUT OFFER
THERE IS NO WAY THE BOARD AGREES TO SELL AT JUST $60.50
I THINK $75 SHOULD BE THE BARE MINIMUM
I THINK THIS STARTS A BIDDING WAR
69% CHANCE PAYPAL GETS ACQUIRED THIS YEAR ON KALSHI RIGHT NOW
$PYPL

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@realroseceline @FromValue 2 of your 4 main sports are barely played anywhere else in the world. Ice hockey is not dominated by US, so that leaves basketball which you mostly dominate.
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@FromValue Not it’s not BS! The us has extraordinary athletic depth and a population of 350m, so if soccer became the our dominant sport for generations, us would almost certainly become one of the world’s elite soccer nations. It’s pretty obvious tbh… 🌹
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$NOW Breakdown
Left my buyzone to the upside again.
The gameplan is simple here:
- Accumulate at $90
- Buy more when it drops below $70
- Hold until $400+
The rotation into software stocks is going to be huge for this company.
When growth reaccalerates due to wide enterprise AI-Adoption, this stock will go through the roof.

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A word about the so-called snicko graph that “proved” croatia striker matanovic touched the ball.
Darren Cann (referee decisions commentator on the BBC and, unfortunately for him, one of the least convincing men ever to see a microphone) said he was “100% certain” there was a touch that caused pasalic to be offside.
He based that certainty on “snicko” technology as this proved the touch.
This is what referee and VAR used to rule out the goal.
But even if you think snicko is a good idea (I don’t) there’s a massive problem with the snicko graph.
IT’S DOESN’T LINE UP WITH THE PICTURES!
Snicko shows one spike and we’re asked to believe that was the matanovic touch.
But there are 4 or 5 touches on the ball in a few seconds (the cross - matanovic? - portugal defender veiga - croatia’s pasalic - then gvardiol scoring).
Snicko shows one?
They have to show a graph where all five touches (if there are five) are represented and where the graph spikes line up perfectly with the footage.
That would remove all doubt.
The way it was presented makes no sense and looks corrupt to the core.

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@Braylon_Breeze Why does everyone have an opinion on absolutely everything, who fuvking cares
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@KerryBurgess It actually is meant to replace the salary that person is paid for doing their job.
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It seems Americans do not understand what a tip is.
A tip is a small amount of extra money voluntarily given to someone, such as to a waiter, bartender, or taxi driver to show appreciation for a service well performed.
It is not meant to replace the salary that person is paid for doing their job.
How is that difficult to understand?
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@HarvestAndHex @monster_models You know that, I know that, in fact anyone with half a brain knows that. Why then does saylor keep buying? His 75k average is pathetic in the current climate.
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I just spoke to my dad for the first time since he was paid his first $STRC dividend four weeks ago.
He didn't understand why the price had fallen so far from par.
I was honest with him — neither did I.
I told him the latest theories about accounts in TradFi getting wiped out on leverage, but margin debt is so abstract to a farmer who barely ever touches his investments that I'm not sure this made much sense to him.
After talking through the situation, I came to realize that, yes, my dad was concerned — some would say worried — but not for the reasons most people would think.
"Just remember, Dad — you're still going to be paid the same dividend, regardless of the market price."
"Okay, but... how?"
That was the moment I realized my dad had fallen into an unfortunate misconception I've noticed even among some in the #Bitcoin community — something that I'll call the dividend yield fallacy.
We all grow up learning about compound interest, which is universally expressed as a percentage. If you go to the bank and open an interest-bearing account, they will express the interest rate as a percent of your deposits. Your mortgage interest is expressed as a percentage of your current balance. Similar story for your credit card accounts.
So it should be no surprise that when regular folks learn about investment products like STRC that are marketed as paying 11.5% annually, they think about it through the same lens.
But there's a blank space in their mental model: 11.5% of what?
In the absence of clarity, the mind naturally assumes that the denominator is the current value of the instrument: the market price.
This leads some folks to think that the dollar amount of their monthly dividend falls as the market price falls.
Life does not prepare most regular people to think in terms of fixed income — what some in the finance community affectionately call "bond math."
Many fixed income instruments, including many bonds, pay a fixed dollar amount. Not a fixed percentage — a fixed dollar amount. That fixed dollar amount is often expressed as a percentage of the instrument's value at par, but that dollar amount does not change merely because the market price falls below (or rises above) par.
This is what gives rise to a so-called effective yield — the dividend yield recomputed using the current market price in the denominator instead of par value.
This concept was foreign to my dad.
"So you're telling me that the price could fall to $2, and I would still get paid the same dividend per share that I own?"
"Yes."
"And so when my dividends get reinvested, they're buying new shares at a discount, not at 'full retail' price?"
"Yes."
I thought I had conveyed this clearly in one of our previous calls — and maybe I had! — but I'm now realizing that this concept is different enough from most people's lived experiences that we need multiple exposures before it can be expected to stick.
Once my dad learned — or re-learned — how the bond math works for STRC, he was not only relieved, but speechless.
"I'm in awe, son. We didn't grow up with anything like this. Hell, I didn't even start investing until MegaCorp," he said, referring to the corporation he worked at for 24 years. "I've never seen anything else in my life like this!"
He continued: "I don't understand why everyone isn't investing in STRC. Why wouldn't anyone who owned a home, who was getting ready to retire, be in this thing?"
"I hear you, Dad. I'm guessing it's because they don't understand how it works, and people are generally fearful of anything they don't understand — at least at first," I said.
I sincerely appreciate how my dad is trying his best to understand this wildly new product that is helping him meet his financial goals.
That said, I think the crux of his misunderstanding — and the source of his initial concern — can serve as a thought-provoking case study for @Strategy as they fine tune how best to communicate with the public about STRC.
To be clear, I understand why Strategy markets STRC's dividend as a percentage yield. Percentage yield is an industry standard concept. It also frames the instrument's income return conservatively in investors' minds; if the price falls, the effective yield on new shares only goes up.
But there is a cost to this in the form of potential misunderstanding. By communicating the dividend yield ONLY in terms of a percentage, some investors will be left to assume that the dollar amount goes down as the market price goes down.
The fixed dividend relative to market price is one of STRC's greatest strengths. It's why my dad is not only not worried, but completely at ease in this sea of bear market panic.
My hope is that we will find ways of better communicating this key concept when we talk to our friends and family (and each other) about digital credit.
🟠
$MSTR $STRC
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@Bill_NHI_ @InTheAssembly They are all spewing the same stuff. Plagiarism at its finest……
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@InTheAssembly Did you spend weeks doing research? Or did you just copy and paste tickers from this post?
TacticzHazel@TacticzH
In the long term, there is a 100% correlation between corporate earnings growth and a stock's valuation. If stock price follows EPS, and it should, here are 8 high quality companies that look like a great opportunity today. 1. $MSFT - Microsoft
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These 2 hot stocks could more than double over the next few weeks:
$NOW
Target zone: $89.94
Long-term potential: $447.21
$TTD
Target zone: $13.01
Long-term potential: $197.61
$NFLX
Target zone: toward $70.11
Next uptrend is expected around $144.45
$EOSE
Target zone: toward $5.90
Next uptrend is expected around $13.92
Don’t miss your chance on these setups before they’re long gone
Save this for later…




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@SilverZGolf @Mr_Derivatives It’s the same every 4 years, ffwd 1 year…….
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@Mr_Derivatives I love the screaming from absolutely everyone. You know what that means
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@coups_left_peg @Trentvilla1 VAR is 3 people. Read the comments on here. Half think it’s not penalty. No one can ever agree so how can it work?
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@Trentvilla1 VAR is clearly not doing what it has been in other competitions, namely correcting referee mistakes or misted offences. So is it favouritism of larger countries? Or a new direction for VAR?
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I said it real time last night this was a penalty, I found it mind blowing the commentary team just pretended it didn’t happen. We got away with one last night, its as clear a pen as you’ll see. #england
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