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Finn
3.4K posts
@rasmr_eth and we already have like 40-60k troops in the region - another 10k is something but this isn't a "holy shit we're sending troops this is a huge development"
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t-bills and stocks retraced their pump after the 10 day pause today today and look like ass across the board
if they are still eating shit going into cash close of the NY session on friday trumps going to say something to give some relief
whatever he says to calm stocks will have to be bearish oil
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Now that cuts have been completely priced out through late 2026 into 1H 2027, long SOFR futures are extremely attractively priced. I do not believe hikes will happen as that would twist the knife into a global recession, so therefore the downside is very little with an asymmetric payout if there is a crisis. I am very long.
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People saw oil retrace and now they think taco is dead and no one cares about Trump
You’re pathetically dumb
Oil will stay over 90 as long as the strait is closed
It wasn’t even a taco today - the only taco at this point is
I AM PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE, AFTER “OBLITERATING” IRANS MILITARY (EASY) WITH EXTREME FORCE, WE HAVE REACHED AN AGREEMENT TO SIGN A BEAUTIFUL DEAL FOR AMERICA. WE ARE HALTING ALL ATTACKS ON THE COUNTRY OF IRAN AND SHIPS ARE NOW ABLE TO EASILY SAIL THROUGH (I ALWAYS TOLD THEM THEY COULD!) AND DELIVER BEAUTIFUL OIL! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP
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@rasmr_eth That was before the 10 day postponement
Watched it drop like a rock, felt like a genius
Watched it completed retrace, felt like a retard
Positions still open tho
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More predictions for this weekend + eyeing a short oil trade into Friday close
Everyone is reading the 10-day extension as a TACO. That's the laziest read.
The 10-day extension isn't de-escalation. It's the continuation of an ultimatum. Trump has political cover to escalate this weekend without triggering the more civilian-harmful measures.
The ultimatum is still on the table. He's just buying himself room to strike first.
Imo his words today show this. "Oil should be higher." "Pain soon.". Trump is priming the markets for fireworks
Here's what I think is really happening:
Trump is eyeing a low-risk strategic operation this weekend. Not "boots on the ground" in the traditional sense, something more surgical.
Don't know war nitty gritty but this can include
- targeted strikes
- asset seizure
- precision op that requires ground presence
High reward, low risk, clean narrative if it works.
The arb is markets are pricing in something drastic and scary like boots on the ground, full escalation.
That fear is what gets oil to $95 on WTI, which is exactly where I want to enter short before Friday close.
Then the weekend plays out:
→ Op begins
→ Brief panic, contained
-> Op normalizes
→ Monday markets open green
→ Trump still has his 10 day ultimatum if he wants to escalate further
Oil down, twitter in disbelief once again. That's the trade.
Trump's quote today "Oil prices should be higher" was the tell for all of this.
Will QT this with the actual trade if I enter Friday.
- Mister Edge
rasmr 🇱🇧@rasmr_eth
Closed the 10x Oil long +70%.
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@Tyler_Neville_ @VP sacks seemed to just quit
sacks, kent, tucker, JD are one group
VP can't just leave - he's in a sticky situation
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Hey @VP - still no comment on Epstein but you’re commenting fearing Iranian Nuclear bomb vests?!
You’re far more intelligent than any presidential candidate we’ve had, and were a shoe in for Prez if you just said the stuff before you were VP.
Blink twice if they got Kompromat on you.
The longer you wait, the more these chances will plummet.
Polymarket@Polymarket
BREAKING: JD Vance’s 2028 odds crash to an all-time low of 18%.
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shorted @ $95.25
trump talked about deportations for his whole campaign - 2 people were killed, he thought it was a bad look so he stopped.
you think he's going to mess around and put troops on the ground in iran? its not popular at all - even with people in his base.
his negotiating campaign is all about going hard, he's going to drag out the talks as long as possible
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he was noticeably high energy today - he either secured a beautiful deal or is on modafinil
johnny maga@johnnymaga
When the Diet Coke hits:
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