Sustainable Growth

I’ve been lucky enough to have 7 10 baggers, or 7 stocks up 10x. These are ProMedicus, Wisetech, Mercadolibre, Nvidia, Celsius, Mastercard and TradeDesk. Just 1 can change your life. Here’s what I learned from each. $PME $WTC $MELI $NVDA $CELH $MA $TTD 🧵

Secret sauce to long term returns: Wide and expanding moat that earns monster returns on invested capital with secular tailwinds that produce double digit earnings growth bought at a fair price. Find yourself a handful of these and then sit on your hands, monitor and wait.

@fiscorainvest @invest091 It looks like people have put a number of other services in to see what could at risk of AI disruption. Seems like the app is powered by Claude.

@fintegrate @invest091 That is quite interesting to see, thanks! Does this site only do software? And for $MSFT is the disruption risk only taking into account their software business? Thanks for sharing!

$PME I found this site that analyzes the disruption risk of various software solns (thnx @invest091 ). While it does so with a pretty humorous take, some of the actual insights on what it would take to rebuild using AI are quite interesting. PME scores better than $MSFT & $PLTR.

@LotlCapital @invest091 @fiscorainvest @long_equity Very difficult in my view. Players like GE Health, Siemens etc have been trying for years with very limited success.

@fintegrate @invest091 Interesting, thanks. Any thoughts on the replicability of their stack @fiscorainvest, @fintegrate , @long_equity ?

@invest091 Could well be because it’s pretty funny. But some of the insights on the various s/w themselves and what makes up the moats are surprisingly well informed!

@fintegrate Yeah at first I thought it was a joke (maybe it is? Ha!), but the insights are actually interesting. I see they’re an Australia based company, haven’t heard of them but will take a look now after that score.

Just found a wild site: “Death by Claude.” You type in a company and it scores AI disruption risk from 0-100. $CRM came in at 42 (sweating): • Pricing audacity: 97 • Replaceable: 55 • Moat depth: 28 Has anyone else played around with the tool?

@cameron_doroi @invest091 It doesn’t get the respect it deserves because it’s a lil ‘aussie battler’. But share price begs to differ….

@fintegrate @invest091 pme always the underdog

@hoosbobby 💯

@fintegrate Same. If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

Really only want to primarily own monopolies and duopolies in this environment. Of course, that hasn’t saved them this year, but I’m most confident they’ll make it through unscathed. For me, that means relatively little change to what I’ve already been doing.

@smsutherland Love it, have been picking off many of the same recently…

@fintegrate $META, $FICO, $MELI, $SE, $AMZN, $UBER is where my cash will continue to go.

Sobering reality for me. Even if I knew war would have broken out ahead of time, have changed absolutely nothing.

$ASML Everything I’ve been seeing makes me incrementally more positive on ASML recently. If the war sends its stock down more aggressively, I’ll be most happy to more meaningfully scale this position

Thing I love most about financial independence is you don’t have to make lifestyle changes for government policy. Tarrifs, high gas prices, raging inflation, policy changes, unemployment . All non event bs you can ignore. Need to be insulated from the mindless noise.

Pain is when your better than market, premium valuation biz becomes a better than market, discount to market biz 🥴 $META

This war is going to unleash a wave of renewable investment globally, particularly Europe. Specifically Solar. People won’t miss an opportunity for energy independence a second time around.

$MELI Got my eyes on mid $1500 to add next. Hard to see it at the moment, but sentiment on this one will turn around in next 3-5 years. If you have shorter horizon than that, could be one to avoid till then.

Brutual Q1. My active portfolio down mid teens so far YTD.$FICO $WTC $ PME $SE destroyed. My indexed positions now >50% of portfolio but they have strongly outperformed with much smaller YTD loss. More thankful for indexes every day :) There’s a lesson in that somewhere for me!

Little more $TDG Slow, steady accumulation.

If you a running a long only strategy focused on strong businesses with exceptional fundamentals, the biggest attribute for success isn’t intelligence, hard work or market timing. It’s patience.

@jonnagap I realized in ‘22 that there there is significant value in being last person standing and providing liquidity to a liquidity starved market. Some of the deals then were unbelievable. Must do whatever it takes to be there at the end.

That’s great to hear. Not having such a framework (even if it’s far from perfect) has been my biggest shortcoming. I have always felt it should be a case by case basis and that has always resulted in putting cash in way faster than ideal. Maybe it’s FOMO on my part. That is bound to seep in when you have researched and shortlisted a stock over many quarters/years and it finally enters a correction. An imperfect framework such as yours is still better than following instinct. That almost always seems to lead to these mistakes.

I find the best time to buy is when a basket of my holdings is smashed, rather than when a specific holding gets sold down. This occurs during rate increase cycles like ‘22 tariff tantrums like ‘25 or wars like ‘26. Broad sell offs derisk making stock specific errors.