Firesale.ae

🚨 "The Dubai Real Estate Market is over" What the data looks like right now: 📊 163 listings scored as distressed 🔥 4 at FireSale level 📉 One apartment listed 61% below what comparable units sold for 📍 128 of those distressed listings are in Business Bay

@cryptorand the real estate index tracks developer stock prices on DFM, not actual property values. DLD data shows 15,196 transactions during Ramadan 2026, up 5.6% in volume and 29.7% in value YoY. share prices crashed 32%, property prices haven't. big difference

💥 BREAKING: The Dubai Real Estate Index crashed 32% since the Iran war started.

@x256xx the broker desperation is real but the 900k to 500k drop usually means the 900k was inflated to begin with. DLD transaction data shows where units in the same building actually sold. the gap between asking price and transacted price is where the real story is

Getting daily calls and messages from all the Dubai real estate brokers. They're DESPERATE to sell. For example, on one offer, instead of 900k AED, they were willing to drop it to 500k AED. I've been trolling them on WhatsApp for the last two days, and it's been honestly amazing fun. SEND DUBAI RE TO ZERO

worth noting the distinction between developer bond distress and actual property transaction data. DLD shows 15,196 transactions worth AED 50.58B during Ramadan alone, up 29.7% in value YoY. bond markets are repricing refinancing risk, not property demand. two very different signals

Bonds issued by two Dubai property developers have fallen into distressed territory, with investor concern mounting over credit quality and refinancing risks as the war in the Middle East rolls on for a fourth week bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@DavidLiaoCH @jbulltard1 have a look at firesale.ae, we track every listing in dubai and score them for distress. completely free, might save you some legwork

@jbulltard1 When there's blood on the street, buy real estate. I'm looking at distressed properties right now in Dubai from expats fleeing. A lot of money will be made the longer this war drags on.

I’m gonna need a steeper discount at the hotels if I’m flying to Dubai 90% isn’t enough

@ZenFlowFinance the off-plan vs ready distinction matters here. 60/40 payment plan buyers at 2024-2025 peak prices are in a very different position to people who bought ready at 6-7% yields. two completely different risk profiles in the same market

Indian HNIs are parking crores in Dubai off-plan property. A new analysis says they may be walking into the largest property bubble in history. A thread 🧵

@soldierspeaks dld data from march still shows transactions happening, just a shift toward ready property at lower price points vs off-plan speculation. the next 60 days of developer payment plan announcements will tell the real story

↘️⚠️🏢Let’s talk about the Dubai real estate market. Despite what many property dealers are selling—promises of "stability"—the reality on the ground tells a different story. Right now, there are very few buyers in the market. Combine that with an oversupply of units, and you have a fundamental recipe for price correction. The perception of Dubai as a geopolitical "safe haven" has been damaged. And when perception shifts, capital follows. This isn’t just about supply and demand. This is about the UAE’s growing geopolitical ambitions. The reality is, mixing aggressive foreign policy with business stability only works if you're a hegemonic superpower. The UAE moved prematurely—and now the market is paying the price. We may not see the full impact for another 6 months. But make no mistake: the uncertainty is here to stay. --- #DubaiRealEstate #UAE #PropertyMarket #MarketCrash #Geopolitics #DubaiProperty

@IanAndyP @SpecialSitsNews the market structure now vs 2008 is worth looking at. much higher end-user demand and rental yields at 6-9% this time. different risk profile even if the headlines sound similar

Unreal...or, at least, unexpected. Dubai's real estate index just cliff-dived 35% — poof, all 2026 gains gone in a war-fueled panic, per DFM data. Physical prices? Only down 8-10% so far (Bayut stats), but that's the calm before the oversupply storm: 210k new units flooding in by 2027, straight Fitch warning vibes from last month. $EMAAR and Sobha getting smoked on bonds (down 8%+ this month per Bloomberg), while capital ghosts to Singapore/Turkey/Cyprus. Echoes of 2008's 60% crash — but back then, no missiles overhead. Recovered in 5 years; this time? If Hormuz chills, bargain hunter's paradise. Safe haven myth busted or ultimate dip? Loading UAE REITs or pivoting to Miami?

Dubai real estate down 35pct

@CaptVenkatReddy @shanaka86 important distinction. the dfm index and actual property transaction prices are two completely different things. dld data still shows volume, the question is whether physical prices follow the stock correction or diverge

Dubai real estate stocks are crashing but property prices aren’t. Here’s why👇 Dubai Real Estate Index⬇️ ~20% in 5 days. Yet physical property prices are still ⬆️ ~18% YoY (~AED 1,976/sqft). Markets price the future, property reflects the past. Geopolitical risk + oversupply fears = stock selloff. Actual property correction, if any, comes 6–12 months later.

Dubai’s stock market says the real estate market is crashing. Dubai’s real estate market says it is not. The gap between the two is the trade of the decade. The DFM Real Estate Index closed at 13,290 on 12 March, down exactly 21.4% from its 27 February intraday peak of 16,910. Emaar Properties fell 24.1%. Aldar fell 19.8%. Deyaar fell 28.3%. Combined market capitalisation loss: $248.7 billion. The entire 15.3% gain Dubai had built since January, erased in fourteen days of war. The headlines wrote themselves: safe haven destroyed, property crash, Gulf dream over. Then look at the transaction ledger. In the week of 2nd to 9th March, while missiles hit towers and drones struck ports, 3,570 properties changed hands for Dh11.93 billion. Transaction volume was up 12% week on week. Actual property prices showed weighted average discounts of 5.8 to 9.2% in distressed luxury and off-plan segments, according to Knight Frank and Bayut data. That is not a crash. That is a negotiation between fear and fundamentals, and the fundamentals are winning. In 2008, the Global Financial Crisis hit a city where real estate represented 85% of GDP. Property prices fell 40.2% in Q1 2009 alone and 60% peak to trough. Developers defaulted. Abu Dhabi bailed out the emirate. Prices rebounded over 100% by 2014. In 2020, COVID produced a 9.1% dip. Golden Visa reforms and capital flight from Russia produced a 60% surge within 18 months. In 2026, tourism, finance, and technology represent 68% of Dubai’s GDP. There is no leverage crisis, no oversupply, no credit crunch, no banking contagion. There is a regional war producing debris on a skyline, and the stock market is pricing the debris while the transaction ledger prices the city. Knight Frank’s base case projects 3.2% prime residential growth for 2026 if the conflict shortens. No credible analyst, not Knight Frank, not S&P Global, not JLL, not Savills, not Colliers, projects anything approaching the 50 to 70% crash scenarios circulating on X. The deepest crash in Dubai’s history, during a global financial crisis that froze credit worldwide, produced 60% at its worst. A regional war with zero leverage unwind produces 5.8 to 9.2% in the physical market. The comparison ends the argument. Three scenarios govern what happens next. If the war ends by Q2, approximately 45% probability per strategic consensus, the DFM index rebounds 15 to 25% as capital returns to the tax-free, visa-friendly hub that no missile has structurally damaged. If asymmetric attrition continues through 2026, approximately 40% probability, actual property prices correct 15 to 25% as tourism losses compound and selective capital repositions to Singapore and Lisbon. If the war escalates to ground operations or nuclear threshold, approximately 15% probability, the index falls 30 to 40% but even this does not replicate 2008 because the preconditions for 2008 do not exist. The selective repositioning is real but modest. East Asian HNWIs have shifted an estimated $12 to 18 billion toward Singapore and Hong Kong. Russian and European flows of $4 to 7 billion are exploring Turkey, Thailand, and Cyprus. Against $248.7 billion in listed developer losses, these outflows are a rounding error. The money is not leaving Dubai. The stocks are repricing Dubai. The transaction ledger is not. Every previous gap between Dubai sentiment and Dubai structure has closed with the structure winning. Post-2008: stocks crashed, prices recovered 100%. Post-2020: sentiment collapsed, Golden Visa reforms triggered a boom. The pattern is the thesis: the stock market panics first and recovers last, the physical market rebounds fastest, and the investors who buy the gap build generational wealth. The towers burn from debris. The index burns from panic. The transaction ledger keeps printing at Dh11.93 billion per week. And the investors who bought Emaar at the 2009 bottom or Palm Jumeirah during COVID are already on planes. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

@Dovydas44444 interesting breakdown. the $330k-$880k range is where most of the new supply is landing too, about 210k units by 2027. worth watching how that segment absorbs it

🇦🇪 The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Real Estate Index has plunged 30% since the Iran conflict has started, erasing every gain made in 2025. Since 2021, housing prices across Dubai have risen up to 75%. More than 270,000 property transactions were made last year - with more than 2/3 of the deals for residential developments. But most of those owners and tenants are foreigners, with no long-term attachment to the region. Only Indians make up more than 20% of all property buyers in Dubai. Their sentiment can shift to the sell mode at any moment, if the Iran war uncertainty persists. The mid-market ($330,000 and $880,000 per unit) segment is expected to suffer the most. A prolonged dip in tourism to Dubai would also bring down the rental property segment, especially short-term rentals. It is already expected that the annual tourist number this year will be 50% smaller than last year.

@dxbtracker the rental drops are even more telling. when you see studios going from 65k to 32k rent that's landlords who can't fill units at any price. the sale price drops follow

📊 480 listings just dropped in Dubai Marina Avg drop: -11.9% | Biggest: -50.0% 🔻 Studio at Marina Diamond 1 — 65K → 32K (-50.0%) 🔻 Studio at Studio One — 2.30M → 1.30M (-43.5%) 🔻 1BR at Paloma Tower — 264K → 150K (-43.2%) A widespread correction is underway. 480 price cuts with double-digit averages — this is sellers adjusting to reality, not noise. Full dashboard → dxbtracker.com

@PermiatCap the 100k units number is the real wildcard. we're tracking the supply data by area and some neighbourhoods are looking at 3-4x their current inventory landing in the next 18 months. that's where the pressure shows up first, not citywide averages

Considering the current situation in Iran, I don't believe that Dubai is over. The charts showcasing the property crash are an opportunity! Just bought $EMAAR at ~12 AED. The math is simple: → Record FY2025: revenue +40%, EBITDA +33%, net profit +36% → AED 155bn backlog = 3+ years of revenue locked in → Trading at 5.9x earnings. Peer avg is 6.6x. Industry is 14.8x. → 8.5% dividend yield while you wait The market is pricing in a Dubai crash that S&P, UBS, and every major agency says probably isn't coming. Fortress balance sheet, 10.7% debt-to-equity, $11.7bn in escrow. The risk is real, 100K+ units hitting Dubai in 2026 vs 27K avg. But at sub-6x earnings with this backlog, you're being paid to take that risk.

@mkluvurself @ChotiSheikhni agree on the 3-6 month lag. asking prices haven't moved much yet but the gap between what sellers are listing at and what DLD says buyers actually paid is already 30-40% in some buildings. that's the early signal most people miss

@ChotiSheikhni 10 years in Dubai real estate here’s the reality: There is NO real price drop right now. Buyers and sellers are simply on hold, watching the market. Correction will take at least 3–6 months to reflect. Most people talking about a “crash” aren’t even on the ground in Dubai

کیا واقعی دبئی پراپرٹیز کی قیمت 60 فیصد تک گر گئی ہے؟

@MirusGlobal there are hundreds in business bay alone right now. just because agents aren't advertising them doesn't mean they don't exist

Distressed deals in Dubai are as rare as snow in June.” And that’s not a coincidence. Dubai’s market is driven by strong demand, global investors, and structured payment plans, not panic selling. 📩 DM “MIRUS” to explore real opportunities.

@robinmalikprop @dxbinteract 100%. the gap between what portals list and what DLD shows actually transacted is where the real story is. some buildings the asking price is 40% above what the last unit actually sold for

Want to know what’s REALLY happening in Dubai’s #property market? Forget guesswork. Forget asking prices. The truth is in the DATA. There are two names every smart #investor should know: #Dubai Land Department (DLD) @dxbinteract #RealEstateInvesting

@YRanaraja 90%? Please. Dubai corrected 50% in 2008 and came back stronger every time. Keep the fear coming, we’ll keep tracking the deals at firesale.ae

Just got off a few phone calls and Zoom meetings this morning trying to make sense of the numbers. When we first looked at Colombo Port City, the benchmark projection was around $15 billion ROI. After running the numbers again late last night, the potential upside could reach over $190 billion, which at that scale can even shift regional GDP dynamics. At the same time, the Dubai Real Estate Index has dropped more than 22% in the last 10 trading days, and trading volumes are extremely thin with almost no buyers. I’m hearing that some European investors are willing to slash asking prices by up to 50% just to exit Dubai. If the situation continues, some projections suggest Dubai housing prices could fall as much as 90% in the coming days.

@Cryptoking Because doom gets more clicks.

****BREAKING NEWS**** Dubai real estate drops to levels not seen since Checks notes… Wait it’s up 25% since the start of 2025… Why is everyone trying to bash Dubai?! Almost like the world of anonymous brokies is jealous and excited to see successful people struggle.

@Darky1k Not even close. Dubai's been through worse and came back to all-time highs every time. The real question is who's buying the dip?

Dubai real estate prices keep dropping Is this the end of Dubai?

@hdrnssr We built a tool to help your friend, we find the best distressed deals for investors looking to buy the dip. Completely for free at firesale.ae

My friend who works in real estate in Dubai told me there are distress sales everywhere. Prices are down ~20%, and developers, even the big ones, are desperate for buyers to the point of offering unbelievable payment plans, and still almost no takers.

@Darky1k This exact take was wrong in 2009, 2015, and 2020. We're live tracking the deals from sellers who listen to this guy firesale.ae

Dubai real estate is cooked People are selling their properties

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