bill fleckenstein

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bill fleckenstein

bill fleckenstein

@fleckcap

https://t.co/2zVu2xILI2 my daily column (since 1996) plus Q&A. Author, "Greenspan's Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve ".

Katılım Temmuz 2014
125 Takip Edilen51.1K Takipçiler
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@StuntPope @ttmygh how this period of govt interference in all aspects of daily life ends is such an important topic, that the blowback is worth it...big principles (like free speech) are in jeopardy these days and are vastly more important than any grief i get or how many followers i may have.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@johnondrasik Why does anyone care what people,who pretend to be someone else for a living, "think" about anything? It's not like they've demonstrated rigorous analytical abilities repeatedly and been correct.
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FredA1776
FredA1776@A1776Fred·
@DrMichaelOren “The Times can also report that numerous unnamed government officials have leaked the US is working on a bomb that will kill tens of thousands of civilians if it is used, which will be a war crime.”
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Michael Oren
Michael Oren@DrMichaelOren·
If the New York Times reported the war in 1944 as it’s reporting the war today. President Roosevelt continues to pursue a war for which he failed to prepare the United States. Though there have been some significant military achievements, especially in North Africa, U.S. forces remained bogged down in the Pacific and severely bloodied in strategically meaningless places like Tarawa and Guadalcanal. The Italian campaign has totally stalled, with an appalling loss of American life that will soon be surpassed by the utterly reckless and inevitably doomed invasion of France. Meanwhile, the innocent people of Japan and Germany continue to suffer. The damage to both their countries and the impact on the world economy is incalculable. The chances of a negotiated settlement appear more than ever remote. And all of this because the impressionable Roosevelt was duped into going to war by that master manipulator, Churchill.
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End Wokeness
End Wokeness@EndWokeness·
This tweet didn't age well 😬
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Yogi
Yogi@Houseofyogi·
Don't be IBM and fumble an 18yr head start on AI IBM was the most valuable company on Earth. Invented the hard drive. The PC. The floppy disk. The ATM. DRAM. SQL. The barcode. Most US patents 29 years straight. 405,000 employees. 70% mainframe market share. Today: $231 billion. 67th in the world. Anthropic. Founded 2021. Four years old. $380 billion. Every piece of the bag was fumbled... Invented the PC. Sold to Lenovo: $1.75 billion. Invented the hard drive. Sold to Hitachi: $2 billion. Server business. Sold to Lenovo. Basically nothing. Now the chips. This is pure comedy. IBM was the largest semiconductor manufacturer on Earth. Fabs in New York. Fabs in Vermont. 16,000 patents. They PAID GlobalFoundries $1.5 billion cash to take it. Gave away the factories. Gave away the patents. $4.7 billion write-down. IBM had American fabs. They paid to close them. And the same Democrats who scream about chips going overseas are the ones whose policies made it too expensive to build here. We wouldn't have TSMC/Taiwan issues today. Decisions have consequences. TSMC: $700 billion. Nvidia: $5 trillion. IBM paid to exit chips right before chips became the most valuable industry on Earth. Incredible timing. Deep Blue beats Kasparov. Live television. First machine to outthink a human world champion. IBM owned AI. Not as a buzzword. As a fact. On camera. In front of the whole planet. OpenAI did not exist for another 18 years. Anthropic for another 24. Nvidia was making cards so teenagers could play Halo. Google was two grad students sharing a dorm room. IBM had an 18-year head start on the entire AI industry. What did they do with it. They dismantled Deep Blue. Put it in a museum. Same mentality as every socialist (cough dems) who wants to regulate AI before it ships. Celebrate the breakthrough. Kill the follow-through. Watson wins Jeopardy. Destroys the two greatest players alive on national TV. Most famous AI brand on the planet. IBM spends billions on Watson Health. AI that cures cancer. Their engineers flagged it unsafe. Instead of fixing it they sold it for scraps. Then killed the brand entirely. Loser mentality. IBM Research. Decades of NLP work. The compute. The talent. The CEO looks at LLMs and says "no thanks." Two years later ChatGPT launches. 100 million users in two months. The entire economy reorganizes around the exact technology IBM looked at and said nah. That is like having Google's algorithm in 1997 and deciding to build a phonebook. The suits and the consultants took over. Same thing that kills every city, every agency, every institution that picks socialism over competition. $201 billion in buybacks over 25 years. More on buybacks than CAPEX. They could have funded every AI lab on Earth with that money. Instead they bought their own stock while the stock went down. Revenue down 22 straight quarters. Nobody fired. Name another job where you lose $95 billion in market cap and get a raise. Actually don't. That job only exists at IBM and in Congress. Buffett bought $12 billion in IBM. The greatest investor alive. Held six years. Dumped it on CNBC. "I was wrong." Put the money in Apple. Best investment in Berkshire history. They had the patents. The labs. The engineers. The brand. An 18-year head start on AI. Replaced the builders with bureaucrats. Chose buybacks over R&D. Chose administration over competition. Lost everything. Now look at who wants to run the same playbook on the AI economy. Bernie wants data center moratoriums. Tax the builders before they finish building. Ro Khanna represents $18 trillion in Silicon Valley market cap. Apple. Nvidia. Google. His district built AI. He just held a Stanford town hall with Bernie called "Who Controls AI: The Oligarchs or The People." Wants to tax unrealized gains. Pause data centers. Put unions on AI boards. Redistribute wealth that hasn't been created yet. His own district is trying to primary him. Not because he's too progressive. Because he's trying to kneecap the industry that made his district the most valuable zip code on Earth. That is IBM energy. Tax the engineers. Slow the builders. Add a committee. Wonder why nothing works. Gavin ran California from a $97 billion surplus into a $68 billion deficit. Lost 789 companies. Tesla. SpaceX. Oracle. Chevron. 200,000 people leaving per year. And he thinks he should have a say in how AI gets built nationally. The guy who can't keep In-N-Out Burger in California wants to regulate the most important technology since electricity. These aren't hypotheticals. This is the IBM playbook in real time. Replace engineers with regulators. Replace competition with committees. Replace building with administrating. And act shocked when the talent leaves and the lead disappears. IBM went from first to 67th. 1.43% a year for 28 years. A savings account beat that. Don't let them do it to America. Name a bigger fumble. I'll wait.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@stevemur Progressive is too kind,they are people with a liberal philosophy but zero common sense and zero self awareness. Disaster is the only possible outcome.
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stevemur
stevemur@stevemur·
Can Progressives govern? It really is becoming increasingly clear that no, they cannot. They are beholden to public sector unions (SEIU, AFT, NEA, etc), and see budgets primarily as redistribution and retribution mechanisms, not as the necessary source of funds for effective state services. What if the "Affordability Crisis" is just... modern American Progressivism? stevemurch.com/say-it-with-me…
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@bassamus some 21 whites have a fair bit of botrytis, so id be careful, 22s seem promising but they are still a little young to really tell. i really dislike 22 reds though 23 seem interesting.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@bassamus opened this 5 hours early. Stunning 18 whites finally start to blossom.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@bassamus 09 had too much premox, so I don't have any. I agree 14, 18 and 20 as well. In chablis 08 raveneau is the best imo.
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Bassam Lahood
Bassam Lahood@bassamus·
@fleckcap i'm a bit of late comer to burg and whites in particular but 18 and 14 are my absolute favorites.. my compadres who've been at it as long as you ranked 09 1st..being in its prime window and the 18 could stew a few more years.
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K. A. Miller
K. A. Miller@KaMiller1·
@fleckcap @bassamus At what temperature did you serve it? And did you aerate it at other than room temperature?
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@bassamus I've had the 00 batard 3x but always a Domaine related function.last one was slightly premoxed.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@bassamus Yes it does.ive never seen the drc batard except at Domaine functions. A rare bird.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
@LookingGlas1989 @bassamus Yes you can tell. Everything is different: extract,length, complexity, balance etc. Try a couple blind you will see. Not always true but mostly it is.
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Golden Boy
Golden Boy@LookingGlas1989·
@fleckcap @bassamus Besides the price, what’s the biggest difference between a $50 & $500 dollar white wine? I don’t think I could tell.
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Jesse Samson
Jesse Samson@4merlynotfamous·
@future42org @BobFergusonGov When you can't stand on the merits of your actions, blame the boogeyman. Master deflection. "Don't look at me, look over there, orange man bad". Wait until the walking dead figure out what you did to them.
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Future 42
Future 42@future42org·
Bob Ferguson is seeing immense blowback on his income tax, so what is his immediate reaction? Try to blame President Trump and Congressional Republicans for our state's tax code, of course👇
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
fond memories of that year. 1990 was my first big score, had solly put warrants 28139's (can still remember the strike)of 91. traded in singapore,where dirt cheap.lugged them around for about a year before they worked,as market went against me almost daily. sold em in oct. 90 when nikkei cracked 20k and implieds went to 100%.
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bill fleckenstein
bill fleckenstein@fleckcap·
For those trying to undersrand the "thought" process at Njdep vis a vis PCT. Well done Stan.
Stan@private_dataguy

$PCT and Tales from Trenton. @VD718 wrote with much more pithy references than I could ever muster but figured a decent time to describe what we are working through with NJDEP as folks seem very scared of the timeline here. Important to understand there is not a law here that needs to be changed or any sort of legislative action. All they need is a letter from the DEP stating their product qualifies as post consumer recycled product under the NJ law. In 2025, the DEP published a FAQ describing how they interpret and will be enforcing the NJ recycling law. Unfortunately, they weren’t quite sure how to deal with dissolution as it was new and didn’t fall within the classic mechanical vs chemical framework. As a result they did essentially the following: “if you aren’t traditional mechanical but are plastic to plastic you’re not approved for now but come talk to us and we’ll get you approved”. Clearly the intent here is NJ doesn’t want chemical recycling, and luckily $PCT is pretty much exactly what NJ wants, plastic to plastic. With a little research elbow grease, I have found $PCT has been in contact with DEP for a while to resolve this and now in frequent contact with the tenor of conversations seeming quite positive. Additionally, multiple major brand have submitted letters of support with empirical data showing the process works and is indeed plastic to plastic. In my dealings with various state environmental agencies my experience is that they generally get to the right answer and it always takes way longer than you’d think. My hope was this would be resolved before the end of the last NJ admin but the Sherrill team is now here. Luckily, a major focus of hers and the new DEP commissioner is a focus on cutting red tape and streamlining government processes. Also helps that the new commissioner is a former Chemist! In summary here, no guarantees when it comes to regulators and its taken longer than hoped (I understand why Dustin and team were optimistic this would be done sooner) but after months of back and forth I think we are closer to the finish line than folks appreciate. At the end of the day, this is what NJ wants and $PCT is on the right side of issue at hand.

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