flipjackhapablap

@ThomasSowell I believe that’s a quote, or at least a very similar paraphrasing, of St Francis of Assisi.

@aeberman12 Genuine question. Why would Iran fear higher oil prices?

Oil rises: Washington & Tehran get pragmatic. Oil falls: both test what they can get away with. Now real Treasury yields are above the levels that forced Trump to retreat on tariffs. The battle is in Hormuz. Markets may decide its limits. #Oil #Hormuz #Iran #Bonds #Inflation #EnergyCrisis bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…

@aeberman12 It’s almost like wars are a bad idea.

The war against shipping is going global. 116 Russian ships hit. Commercial vessels attacked. Hormuz contested. Blockades and tolls. Dark fleets targeted. Somali piracy returning. The physical arteries of the global economy are becoming the battlefield. #Shipping #Hormuz #Ukraine #Iran #Oil #Geopolitics

@dailysimpsons @tubatron @canyonjim @simonsam “scourge of the despot” is how I want to be remembered

35 years ago today, July 11, 1991, “Blood Feud” first aired on Fox. It is still the only episode of #TheSimpsons to ever premiere in the month of July. Dir: @tubatron. Wr: George Meyer. EP: @canyonjim, @simonsam & Matt Groening.

@brivael With Christ reigning over all, it may work. I don’t think any secular philosophy can sustain a project like this.

Il y a un mois, au lendemain de l'IPO de SpaceX, je publiais une analyse expliquant pourquoi cette entreprise vaudrait 30 à 50 trillions de dollars d'ici cinq ans. Trente millions de vues, et pas mal de gens pour me dire que j'avais perdu la tête. Elon m'avait RT. Hier, Elon Musk a écrit que SpaceX vaudra plus que le reste de la Terre si ses objectifs sont atteints. « More than the rest of Earth. » Tout le monde y a vu une provocation. Moi j'y vois un théorème. Laissez-moi le démontrer. Posons le problème. La richesse mondiale totale, tout ce que huit milliards d'humains possèdent, immobilier, actions, usines, or, pèse environ 500 trillions de dollars. Dire qu'une entreprise vaudra davantage que tout cela réuni semble arithmétiquement absurde. Et ça l'est. Dans un système fermé. La phrase de Musk ne dit qu'une seule chose, et c'est la plus importante du siècle : le système est en train de s'ouvrir. Accordons aux décroissants leur unique point valide : la croissance infinie est impossible dans un monde fini. Leur erreur n'est pas logique, elle est géographique. Ils ont cru que le monde s'arrêtait à la Terre. Or la Terre représente 0,0003 % de la masse du système solaire et intercepte un demi-milliardième de l'énergie du Soleil. Nous nous disputons des miettes au pied d'un buffet que personne n'a encore ouvert. Ouvrez-le, et l'hypercroissance cesse d'être un slogan pour redevenir une trajectoire physique. A. Depuis dix mille ans, la richesse suit une seule variable : la quantité d'énergie et de matière que l'homme sait capter et organiser. Feu, agriculture, charbon, pétrole, atome, silicium. Chaque bond de civilisation est un bond énergétique. Notre civilisation entière tourne sur 20 térawatts. Le Soleil en rayonne vingt mille milliards de fois plus, en continu, gratuitement, depuis quatre milliards et demi d'années. Sur l'échelle de Kardashev, nous sommes une civilisation de type 0,7. Le Soleil, à lui seul, nous emmène au type II. B. SpaceX ne participe pas à cette transition. SpaceX en possède l'unique porte. Starship divise le coût de l'orbite par cent, la constellation assure les communications, et le deuxième acteur mondial a dix ans de retard. J'ai déjà fait la liste de ce que ça débloque, data centers orbitaux, usines en microgravité, minage d'astéroïdes, Mars. Ce qui m'intéresse aujourd'hui, c'est l'étage que personne ne price : ce que ça débloque dans les têtes. Car voici ce que les démographes refusent de voir. La natalité occidentale ne s'effondre pas à cause du prix de l'immobilier. Nos arrière-grands-parents faisaient six enfants dans des logements sans chauffage. Elle s'effondre parce qu'on a confisqué le futur. On ne fait pas d'enfants pour un monde qu'on nous décrit comme finissant. On en fait pour un monde qui commence. Le pic de natalité occidental coïncide exactement avec le pic d'optimisme technologique, les jets, l'atome, Apollo. Girard l'avait compris : une civilisation privée de frontière retourne sa rivalité contre elle-même, et c'est très exactement notre époque, guerres culturelles, ressentiment, déclin administré par comités. Rendez-lui une frontière, et la même énergie mimétique redevient émulation, construction, transmission. La colonisation du cosmos est le premier projet capable d'unifier l'Occident depuis 1969. On refera des enfants comme on posait des pierres de cathédrale, pour un édifice qu'on ne verra pas achevé. Le premier bébé né en orbite fera plus pour la démographie européenne que cinquante ans de politiques familiales. Maintenant, additionnez. Une économie terrestre relancée par un projet commun et une démographie qui repart. Une économie orbitale complète, énergie, calcul, industrie, tourisme, dont chaque dollar transitera par le même péage. Un système solaire dont la matière et l'énergie excèdent tout ce que la Terre contiendra jamais. Et une seule entreprise qui détient l'accès. Si A, la richesse suit l'énergie captée, et si B, SpaceX ouvre seule un réservoir un milliard de fois supérieur, alors la conclusion tombe d'elle-même : comparer SpaceX à la richesse terrestre est une erreur de catégorie. La Terre cesse d'être le dénominateur. « Plus que le reste de la Terre » n'est pas une hyperbole. C'est un arrondi à l'inférieur. Personne, devant le premier puits de pétrole en 1859, n'a dessiné Dubaï. Personne, devant le premier transistor, n'a imaginé que le calcul deviendrait la première industrie du monde. Nous sommes en 1859, et le puits vient de jaillir. Je maintiens ce que j'écrivais il y a un mois : achetez de l'optimisme. Je ne change qu'un détail. La taille du sous-jacent. C'est l'univers.

@Vuojolahti @TheAliceSmith Not her fault, they wrote her as a Berkeley undergrad, she had to play the role as written.

@TheAliceSmith Zendaya is easily the worst part of the Dune movies and it's not even close

If you haven’t read Dune, you might want to know that the Chani of the books is the opposite of the film character played by Zendaya. In the books, Chani believes the Fremen prophecies and fiercely loyal. In the films, she’s a skeptical girlboss. Of course.

@Wright99David The right can be callous, but for hatred to the point of celebrating someone’s death for disagreeing with their beliefs, you gotta go to the left. Not all, there are some genuinely good left wing people, but it’s disturbing seeing how little they can understand other viewpoints

Why are folk telling me 2 show some respect 2 Anne Widdecombe? She was vile. She failed 2 show respect 4 others and sowed hatred&division It would be hypocritical of me 2 remain silent and show her 1 ounce of respect Others can mourn. I rejoice (as I did with Thatcher's death)

@curioushaggis Yet another reason I could never be a leftist. I just don’t have enough hate in me.

I’m just going to say it. Anne Widdecombe was a rotten human being and I’m glad she’s gone. You can still be against murder and be glad someone is gone at the same time. It’s not that complicated.

@gbrew24 @staunovo Aaaaand oil is down 2%

JMIC keeps threat level in Hormuz at SEVERE. Notes that traffic continues (though at a depressed level); interestingly, notes traffic is moving on the Iran route as well as the Omani route, which based on available data has been very quiet since Sunday.

@Reuters @trend_bullish Only some?

Some war insurers advise shipowners to pause Hormuz voyages after attacks, sources say reut.rs/3QYXNIQ reut.rs/3QYXNIQ

@calvinfroedge @energyburrito I sold none of my oil names as prices collapsed. Of course, I also sold none of them when they skyrocketed earlier. Have I learned anything about taking at least some profits? Time will tell. Spoiler: probably not.

You're about to see a biblical short squeeze in certain oil names

@JosephMajkut @gbrew24 Is it possible that China never recovers? 2-3 million barrels a day is 18-25% of their imports. I don’t see how that’s something that can just be permanently replaced on a whim.

@gbrew24 What of China never meaningfully recovers and like 2-3 mbpd are just gone?

Factors keeping prices low: -UAE vs. Saudi price war -Iran oil building up on the water -Non-MENA crude flows staying strong (esp. US and Russia) -No recovery (yet) in Chinese buying. #OOTT

@JayOnSC @JayOnrait This was the first thing I thought of when I heard of the trade.

Expecting to lose my voice regularly this upcoming NHL season. YOU'RE OFF THE CASE, BOBROVSKY! 😵‍💫😮‍💨

@GaryMarcus America: gives away hundreds of billions over half a century, then shuts some of that spending down. Way too many people: you’ve just killed a million people. Looking forward to the counter for the countries that never gave nearly as much. How many people did they “kill”?

over a million deaths attributable to DOGE and counting: doge-impact.org, with sources

@pegobry_en The war is over, but Hormuz ain’t opened. If that’s not settled soon we won’t have $70 oil for long.

All we needed to do was stop the war in Iran

@KarelMercx Part of this is that we’ve had 4 months of inefficiencies in shipping as shipping companies had to re-route due to the Hormuz closure.

There have never been 1.37 billion barrels of oil at sea before.

@AmnestyUK I agree that the state of discourse today is deplorable, but I have yet to see any concern when people are called fascists or white supremacists without any evidence. Even when it leads to violence, Amnesty and other organizations are strangely silent on that side of the issue.

And regulators must hold X to account for its repeated role in human rights abuses and recognise that the self-regulation model is clearly failing. 6/6 🧵

If the Secretary of State responsible for social media regulation and oversight says X/Twitter "isn't healthy for our democracy or our communities" she should take more decisive action - not just leave the platform. 1/6 🧵

@SteveEm64916 @vintagemapstore That doesn’t count, you see, because they didn’t write it down. Genocides only count if they’re written down.

Well, that's not very likely because the indigenous people of the Americas were constantly at war with one another, sometimes in a total genocidal sense. For instance, the Beothuk on that map were annihilated by smy First Nation ancestors, the Mi'kmaq. The Lakota people in Minnesota, etc., were driven from their lands, and they ended up in the Black Hills, taking the land away from the indigenous tribes there. By the 19th century, the Comancheria controlled a huge chunk of that map. They had driven the Apache out of much of their land, and the Apache and other Athabascan people, such as the Navajo, had driven the Hopi and pueblo out of their land, and I could go on forever.

What North America might look like in 2000s if Europe had never discovered it--an alternate history of thriving Indigenous empires and confederacies

@MarineTraffic @trend_bullish I’m guessing there will be no war this weekend, what with the funeral of the Supreme Leader and the 250th 4th of July. Next week determines if the Iranians have given up on control of the Strait or not.

Hormuz traffic data signals #MarineTraffic data show 38 confirmed crossings through the monitored Strait of #Hormuz zone on 2 July, a 10% day on day decline. Commercial vessels continued to account for most movements, including 14 laden cargo transits led by crude, CPP and dry bulk, alongside LPG and DPP cargoes. Iranian flagged activity rose sharply to 11 crossings from two the previous day, while nine sanctioned crossings were also observed. Route selection shifted towards the Iranian and Dark or Unknown corridors, as Omani route use weakened.

@WarMonitors I see no chance of it not happening.

Odds on Iran charging fees by August 31st is now up to 52%. Do you guys see this happening?