Huaqun Li

.@kpomerleau & @florahq: “Many taxpayers will get a tax windfall this year.” aei.org/economics/last…

I did Stanford admissions interviews for nearly a decade, interviewing ~40 students total. Exactly one got in that whole time, one got waitlisted. Among the students I interviewed who ultimately got rejected: an ESL immigrant of color who founded a local nonprofit to help other ESL immigrants learn English, a woman interning at a cancer research center at Johns Hopkins, a woman of color who worked a job at night to support her disabled parent. All 4.0s+ with excellent SATs/ACTs. Stanley's experience is not unique. It's a broken system (I couldn't take it anymore so I quit interviewing). A big reason is how the Common App has severely reduced the marginal cost of fishing for more college admissions.

Seeing how much slop is in the Ways and Means draft>

“Why aren’t you cheering Trump & DOGE? I thought you wanted spending and deficit cuts!" Because I’ve been doing this for 25 years and can’t be tricked by gimmicky nonsense. Trump’s first term added $8 trillion in enacted spending hikes and tax cuts to the deficit - half of which was unrelated to the pandemic. This time around, Trump has proposed roughly $8 trillion more in tax cuts and spending hikes over the decade. And right now, a GOP Congress is preparing to abandon most reconciliation cuts and instead add $325 billion this year in new spending. We’re headed towards $4 trillion deficits within a decade. So, no, I don’t get excited when DOGE cancels $1 billion in govt contracts. Or saves $3 billion in federal workforce reductions out of a $7,000 billion budget. Not when Trump and Congress are also preparing to add $800 billion more annually in proposed new tax cuts and spending. And no, the huge savings are not coming. Even (unrealistically) eliminating 20% of the federal workforce would save $60 billion, and overhauling federal systems to sharply reduce payment errors may save perhaps $80 billion (and is probably unlikely too). For all of DOGE’s bluster, administrative and executive reforms would at best save 1-2% of federal spending and offset only a small fraction of Trump’s red ink agenda. That leaves trying to unilaterally impound spending such as USAID—which is wildly illegal—or actually going to Congress to pare back spending the constitutional way. But Trump has already taken Social Security, Medicare, defense, veterans, border (and interest) off the table, which is 2/3 of all spending and is driving deficits. And the GOP Congress seems ready to give up on cutting the remaining one-third of spending. Want to cut spending and the deficit? How about they stop passing budget-busting bills. Don’t brag about your coupon-clipping frugality at the same time you are buying a $250,000 Ferrari. I’m not going to cheer Trump and DOGE for adding “only” $750 billion to deficits instead of $800 billion. We’re still going backwards. I’ve spent decades studying the federal budget. I know that $7 trillion(!) behemoth inside and out – where the money really goes, and where the savings opportunities lie. So I can also detect bullshitters who talk tough about trillion-dollar spending cuts without doing their homework. It’s the ones who claim most spending goes to undefined “waste,” federal salaries, immigrants, foreigners, Ukraine, or non-working welfare recipients. It’s the ones who claim we can easily balance the budget or cut $1 trillion without specifying exactly what line-items to cut. Or that we can return to 2019 spending levels for each program, which means a 20% inflationary cut, defaulting on the federal debt, and kicking off every senior who has since retired into Social Security and Medicare. It’s all hot air and empty bluster. Tough talk without following through on anything substantive. Just wait until you see the final deficit numbers in October. And this is why GOP movements to cut spending always fail. They make absurdly ambitious promises without doing their homework, understanding where the money goes, and specifying real plans to fix it. You can’t significantly cut the deficit just by cutting waste, firing bureaucrats, and defunding immigrants and foreigners. There are no easy short cuts. You have to stop cutting taxes and then address Social Security, Medicare, defense, and a lot of other popular programs. Wake me when the GOP goes there. So, no, I will not get excited about a couple billion in DOGE savings on one hand while Trump pushes Congress to add $8 trillion over the decade in tax cuts and spending with the other hand. I’m not that gullible.

NEW PAPER! (w/ Ed Fox) We study 1) how much the wealthy borrow, quantifying “buy-borrow-die” for the first time, and 2) how much unrealized gains impact their taxes. The results changed (some of) our thinking on how to tax those at the top. 🧵 w/ findings ⬇️

We estimate a 25% tariff on all goods imports from Canada and Mexico plus a 10% tariff on all goods imports from China would raise $1.2 trillion over 10 years. We make 4 main adjustments to arrive at our 10-year score of $1.2 trillion. 🧵

Students interested in tax policy, we’re looking to hire an intern on our federal tax team during what will likely be a pretty exciting time! taxfoundation.org/about-us/caree…

RIP, Gary. You will be deeply missed. Every time Gary answered my question, he would say, 'You owe me one more penny.' I can not remember how many pennies I owe him, but I will always feel indebted to his mentorship and support. taxfoundation.org/blog/gary-robb…

The recent IRS data suggests TCJA has not broken the trend towards more pass-through businesses and fewer C corporations. via @TaxFoundation

Join us for a FREE #webinar tomorrow at 2pm ET to learn about the different types of #healthcare data we have, and understand practical ways to use our data through real life experiences. go.usa.gov/xnE6M

Millennials suck at saving for retirement. Only 31% are doing it at all. on.mktw.net/2k8x1Oc

@ChickfilaMobile So u parked at different place each time?

@ChickfilaMobile Did not see u, sold out already?

"Do Higher Corporate Taxes Reduce Wages? Micro Evidence from Germany" forthcoming in AER zew.de/en/publikation…

14/ Eliminate the needless phrases that pad your writing, especially those that express only vague relationships.

The easy campaign rhetoric has run into the harsh realities of the market & government. Governing & policy, it turns out, aren't easy. x.com/dandrezner/sta…