M. Nadeem Sarwar

جنت میرے نصیب کی واعظ کو بخش دے میرے کفن میں گیسوئے جاناں کی بْو رہے ۔۔۔ (آمین)

Even REER assumes free flow, open trade whereas we have restrictions and we especially love banning imports - which results in reducing exports as well.

@AliHasanain Though you are focusing on Ex rate, still i think one clarification should be given that even REER assumes free flow, open trade whereas we have restrictions and we especially love banning imports - which results in reducing exports as well.

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I've heard some of Pakistan's richest & most powerful men (including the PM) say that: "The exchange rate went from 100/140/180 to 300 but exports didn't improve." It is a simple idea, tallying with lived experience & the data 👇. It is also utterly wrong & easily debunked 🧵

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@enigmaakh @salmanAraja Actually this highlights something important: Raja Sb should give full time to cases and we should have a political minded SG. However, the problem is whom we can trust for an important position like SG? I guess that's why IK insisted on keeping Raja Sb as SG.

بہت ادب اور احترام کے ساتھ، سلمان اکرم راجہ صاحب: آپ ایک باکمال وکیل ہیں، آپ کے وقت کی قدر ہمیں بخوبی ہے۔ ہمیں علم ہے کہ آپ کی مصروفیات، کیسز اور عدالتوں میں ذمہ داریاں بے حد اہم اور demanding ہیں۔ لیکن جو بنیادی نکتہ ہے، وہ یہی ہے کہ جس کا کام ہو، اسی کو زیبا ہے۔ آپ وکالت میں جتنے بھی قابل ہوں، آپ کی مہارت پر کسی کو شبہ نہیں، لیکن سیاست، معاشرت اور عوامی تحریکیں محض 'قانونی چارہ جوئی' سے نہیں چلتیں۔ انہیں قیادت، عوامی جذبات کے فہم، قربانی اور نڈر فیصلوں کی ضرورت ہوتی ہے۔ اور جہاں خان کی بہنیں، قوم کی بیٹیاں اور ماؤں جیسے کردار بے توقیر کیے جا رہے ہوں، وہاں صرف سیاسی خاموشی اختیار کرنا، یا "مصروفیات" کا سہارا لینا، حق ادا کرنے کے مترادف نہیں ہوتا۔ سر، آپ ماشاءاللہ صاحب حیثیت ہیں۔ کل کو اگر سیاست سے کنارہ کشی بھی اختیار کر لیں گے تو آپ کا کیریئر، آپ کے وسائل اور ساکھ آپ کے ساتھ ہوں گے۔ لیکن عام پاکستانی، جس نے نہ صرف اپنی شناخت بلکہ اپنے خون، پسینے اور رزق کی قربانی دی ہے، اس کے لیے یہ سب محض سیاسی انتخاب نہیں، بلکہ جہاد ہے۔ اور یہ قربانیاں کسی شہرت یا مفاد کے لیے نہیں، بلکہ صرف اور صرف عمران خان کے نظریے اور پاکستان کے مستقبل کی خاطر دی گئی ہیں۔ بہت سے پاکستانی، جنہوں نے 2013 سے لے کر 2022 کے بعد تک عمران خان کے بیانیے کو سنبھالا دیا، ان کا خون، ان کی آنکھوں کے سامنے اپنے ساتھیوں کی لاشیں گریں اور پھر وہی پارٹی رہنما، جنہیں وہ اپنا نجات دہندہ سمجھتے تھے، جب ان کے حق کے لیے آواز بلند نہ کریں تو دل دکھتا ضرور ہے۔ عمران خان کی جماعت آج ایک سیاسی تنظیم سے بڑھ کر ایک عوامی تحریک ہے۔ خود عمران خان بارہا کہہ چکے ہیں کہ یہ صرف سیاست نہیں، بلکہ قوم کی بقا کی جنگ ہے۔ ایسے میں جب پارٹی کے اندر موجود کچھ عناصر عمران خان کی بہنوں اور قوم کے ساتھ توہین آمیز رویہ اختیار کریں اور قیادت کی جانب سے خاموشی اختیار کی جائے تو پھر اس خاموشی کو مجرمانہ غفلت ہی کہا جائے گا! سر، یہ بات یاد رکھیں کہ پارٹی کے پاس اگر آج اقتدار کی کوئی رمق بچی ہے، تو وہ عوام کی قربانیوں کی بدولت ہے! تو اگر آپ جیسے باوقار لوگ بھی پارٹی کی اندرونی خرابیوں پر آواز نہ اٹھائیں گے، تو پھر عام پاکستانی کس سے امید باندھے؟ پہلے بھی کہا ہے کہ آپ کے لیے تو کل کو سیاست سے نکل جانا بھی ممکن ہے، مگر عام کارکن یا عام پاکستانی کے لیے یہ "سیاسی بحران" نہیں، بلکہ اس کی زندگی کی سب سے بڑی سچائی ہے۔ سلمان صاحب، یہ بھی یاد رکھیں کہ ہم ان لاکھوں عام پاکستانیوں میں سے ہیں جن کے پاس نہ کوئی عہدہ ہے، نہ شہرت، نہ چہرہ لیکن نیت میں فطور نہیں، اور سچ کہنے سے ہم باز نہیں آتے۔ یہ سچ ہے: آپ کی پارٹی، اٹھ فروری کے الیکشن کی چوری کے بعد، کوئی بھی مؤثر مومنٹم نہیں بنا سکی۔ خان کے جیل جانے کے بعد بھی آپ کی سیاسی صفوں میں وہ یکجہتی نظر نہیں آئی جو تحریک کی بقا کے لیے ضروری تھی۔ سر، یہ جو "سیاسی مفاہمت، ذاتی مفادات، اور اندرونی سازشیں" ہیں، ان کا بوجھ اب عوام نہیں اٹھا سکتی۔ اگر اب بھی پارٹی کے اندر موجود "پاگل ہاتھیوں" کو نہ پہچانا گیا، اور ان کا محاسبہ نہ کیا گیا، تو یہ جدوجہد آپ جیسے باوقار لوگوں کے ہاتھوں کمزور ہو جائے گی اور یہ شاید سب سے بڑا سانحہ ہو۔ قوم نے ستر سال کا گند صاف کرنے کا عہد کیا ہے۔ اب ہمیں نہ مصروفیوں کا بہانہ درکار ہے، نہ خاموشی کا دفاع۔ یہ وقت خود احتسابی کا ہے، انا کو پیچھے رکھنے کا، اور سچائی کو تسلیم کر کے اصلاح کا۔ ہم آپ کے علم، وقار اور خدمات کا احترام کرتے ہیں، مگر ساتھ ہی بطور پاکستانی یہ حق بھی رکھتے ہیں کہ جہاں غلطی ہو، وہاں سوال کریں، اور جہاں حق تلفی ہو، وہاں صدائے احتجاج بلند کریں۔ اگر آپ جیسے باشعور اور بااثر لوگ بھی اب خاموش رہے، تو پھر اس تحریک کا خدا ہی حافظ ہے۔ @Aleema_KhanPK

گھنٹے بعد مجھے پارٹی کیلئے مخصوص نشستوں کا مقدمہ لڑنا۔ یہ وقت بیوقوفوں و بد نیتوں کو جواب دینے کا نہیں۔ دو دن پہلے بھی کہا کہ پولیٹیکل کمیٹی کے فیصلے کی تائید کرتا ہوں تاہم ۲۳ کو بجٹ کا پاس ہونا حیرت کا باعث تھا۔ آج بھی یہی موقف ہے۔ ۲۷ سے ۳۰ جون کے دوران بجٹ کو پاس ہونا چاہئے تھا

e) Participate in Regional Trade - with our peer n neighboring economies that are not too much different in Per Capita Income we can make significant progress in shifting to export led economy. However, any progress at snail's pace will not make any difference.

a multi buyer, multi seller mechanism, improving governance of DISCOs & reducing energy price to regionally competitive rates, d) Invest in Humans - to upgrade their skills, health conditions, thought process & hence make them more productive, and

Tariffs reduction and Export Promotion 🇵🇰 Govt in recent budget initiated tariffs reforms & committed to bring tariffs to a max of 15% in five years time. While this is worth appreciating, let's be clear that this is necessary but not sufficient to ⬆️ exports + productivity

@MushtaqBilalPhD Is it free?

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@AbdulRehman0292 This will lead to another circle of inflation, eroding purchasing power of the people + keeping policy rate higher for longer time. Both leading to economic recession for longer period.

Continued focus of IMF on indirect taxation‼️ To achieve next year tax target of around Rs13,000Bn, additional tax on petrol/diesel, eatables being suggested. Instead, collect Rs500Bn each from tax evading sectors like retailers, tobacco & agriculture. If implemented petrol/diesel price will increase by around Rs50 per liter.

@Hammad_Azhar You have been one of the most underrated ministers. Though your performance as Rev Min wasn't great but as energy and industry minister, it was remarkable. You pushed for reforms in energy sectors, couldn't carry out due to time constraints but those are still pending.

You see other than the problem of non storageability of Sugar Cane vs sugar, there is another market failure: WATER. Sugar cane is an extremely water intensive crop. And Pakistan is a water stressed country. The future of agriculture and much more in Pakistan depends upon water conservation and availability. For example, in the south-asian context, Sugar cane needs 2.5 times more water than cotton to irrigate. Water, the lifeline of entire civilisations and source of many future conflicts is not priced in the market. Meaning it is free to pump out of land (barring electric costs) or to be used through canals. This means that resource availibity and scaricity signals become perverse and our water starved country ends up irrigating with increasing prevalence, the most water intensive crop. See the graph below; notice how area under cultivation for cotton has declined in favor of sugar cane. It’s a direct result of what we call in economic term; market failures, negative externalities and free rider issues. Well done, you’ve made it till here in this tweet. The most striking fact is contained in the last para. Now lets briefly discuss the devastating impact Sugar Cane has had on cotton output (this year alone saw a 34% decline). Through the years, the area under cultivation by cotton has faced a steep fall (see graph below) The entire shortfall in cotton output will all have to be imported at higher rates. This makes value addition in the textile industry challenging and uncompetitive. It also has a negative impact on other crops whose area under cultivation is shrinking due to population growth and unchecked expansion of housing societies. Sugar Cane also modifies the eco system of any region. The high amount of water needed for it cause humidity levels to rise in neighboring acres. This in particular causes pest infestation in cotton growing fields and many cotton farmers have for this reason abandoned their sowing cotton because they were surrounded by sugar cane farms. To end I want to give you a striking case study: UAE. Its sugar refineries imports raw sugar that is easier to transport and import in bulk. they then produces 40 million tonnes of white sugar annually (more than 5 times the annual sugar consumption of Pakistan) and UAE also become the fourth largest exporter of white sugar in the world. And they have achieved this without growing a single strand of sugar cane plant, or any export subsidy or heavy water use. Meanwhile Pakistan is left just with sinking water levels, shrinking crop acreages including cotton, loss of billions every few years due to export subsidies followed by import of white sugar, highest diabetes rate in the world and a couple dozen rent seeking political families with zero skill sets but an addiction for rent seeking.

Read this below and prepare to be amazed:   In April of 2020, a high powered sugar reform commission was established on the orders of Prime Minister Imran Khan. I was nominated as its head and the commission was tasked with studying the sugar industry and proposing reforms for this sector that would be completed by the end of the PTI govt’s tenure. With representations from all fed govt institutions like SBP, FBR, FIA and all provincial govt departments, the commission convened multiple sessions with representations from all industry stakeholders, farmer community and govt departments. Some measures that were deemed immediate, like the penalties for failure to start crushing by the mills and thereby blackmailing govts to allow subsides on exports were undertaken immediately. Similarly, the customs duties, taxes and prohibitions on import of sugar into the country were removed in order to align the local market with the international. My portfolio was changed in the midst of this process but nevertheless we had conducted enough study into the subject that I can share with you some of my findings that are extremely startling: Refined sugar can be stored but Sugar Cane itself cannot be stored beyond a couple of weeks. Now this may seem like a mundane fact to the reader but in fact this is the very dynamic that Sugar Mills have used to leverage their bargaining power with the govt. Just before the crushing seasons starts (November) millers often start complaining of excess unsold stocks and tied up liquidity that needs to be exported before they can start buying sugar cane from farmers. The farmers cannot store their sugar cane once its harvested and even otherwise they need to free up the land to plant crops for their next season. This puts pressure on the govt to yield to the millers demand. The pressure works wonders if the PM himself is a sugar mill owner and even subisides are doled out to millers if the price of sugar in the international market is below that of the cost of producing sugar in Pakistan. Once the “excess” sugar is exported, the price of sugar in the local market invariably starts rising because there was no excess in the first place. Our commission found that the stock figures that the govts have been using to allow export were provided by the millers themselves who had in interest in pushing the govt to export sugar (often on the back of a hefty subsidy). So the millers rake in the profits twice! Once on export of sugar and then on the resultant price increase in the local market. Hence the PTI govt introduced legislation at the provincial level that forced millers to start crushing or pay steep fines and even risk losing their license. However that alone doesn’t fix the problem. Read on. Next comes the regulation of entry into However the sugar milling business. Not everyone can set up a sugar mill. It’s a privilege that is doled out to the well connected political families. The competition commission also found ample evidence of collusion and price setting between the mill owners. But it doesn’t end here. Keep reading.. You see in India the sugar regime is different. Its fully regulated. The price of sugar is set by the govt as is the minimum price of sugar cane. Hence its not a very profitable let alone rent seeking business in India. In Pakistan, everything else is regulated in the sugar industry that suits the mill owner apart from the final price of sugar. That does not suit the mill owner hence its allowed to float freely. Hence it’s the choicest line of occupation for politicians. However, our commission was of the view that complete regulation or deregulation is not the way forward as the problem is one of market failure and negative externalities. What these economic terms and how they work in practice in Pakistan is written below. Continue to be amazed.. 1/2

When economic figures start reading like fantasy fiction, it’s time to ask hard questions. Pakistan’s latest GDP numbers (estimates) are out — and so are the anomalies: Real GDP growth? Just 2.68% GDP in dollar terms? Magically jumps 10.7% from $371bn to $411bn Per capita income? Leaps from $1,680 to $1,824 — an 8.6% gain Agriculture? Major crops like wheat and cotton plunged, yet the sector grew Industry? Large-Scale Manufacturing contracted — but industrial growth is a healthy 4.77% Services? Wholesale trade barely moved (0.14%), yet services rose 2.91% Either we’ve discovered GDP alchemy, or the math behind these figures needs serious public scrutiny. Where’s the transparency on: Exchange rate assumptions? Deflators used to convert real to nominal to dollar terms? Sectoral weightings in GDP calculation? If we want public trust in economic reporting — especially in an IMF program year — we need more than just numbers. We need coherence, credibility, and clarity. Let’s not turn national statistics into creative writing exercises. #PakistanEconomy #GDP #FiscalTransparency #EconomicPolicy #Governance www-dawn-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.dawn.c…

@AhsanJPirzada I dont know his name but I am following you and have been in contact with Dr Ahmed Jamal Pirzada, and based on that I can surely say salute to him , upright parents raise upright children

Having served as a fed secretary & then as a Judge of Competition Appellate Tribunal for 6 years, Baba finally retired at the age of 68. I’m proud of the fact that v live in a rented house, that my dad sold everything he had to give us the best education 1 can hope 4.Alhumdulliah

youtube.com/watch?v=bAW1-p… South Asia Integration: Regional Trade overview by Dr. Manzoor Ahmad (Chairman BoT PRIME)

👍youtu.be/_Qxn5v_WOBc Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Integration in South Asia: Insights from Dr. Ali Salman Visit Site: prisa.org.uk hashtag#prisainstitute hashtag#prisaorganization hashtag#prisaukorganization hashtag#prisaorguk @fmnadeem

A couple of days back Twitter was kept on in Pakistan and we could access it without VPN. And on that same day 7 or 8 federal ministers made similarly phrased tweets congratulating Mian Shehbaz Sharif for his “vision and leadership” in getting Pakistan a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. This seat has come to Pakistan for the 8th time and is done on rotation basis and no leadership was required. But how pitiful that the government kept Twitter operational just to praise the PM but doesn’t otherwise.