Roar Adland

Pretty sure I'm the only #shiptwit person on here that has stood in a line-up on deck, having been boarded by the US Navy and the ship's cargo checked for weapons smuggling? (1994, Balkan war)

As a Norwegian I'm *very* concerned about the Russians starting to make up stuff like this.

If the IRCG is removed from the US OFAC sanctions list Iran officially controls the Hormuz, a transit fee scheme is a done deal (ref. Bosphorus) and the MEG war is over. Until then it's Iran/dark fleet and a few friendly vessels only. Market is sniffing out where this is heading.

Trump seems to agree... x.com/jonkarl/status…

Neither Iran nor the United States have signed and ratified the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Oman has, and so cannot collect transit fees for Hormuz, and they have now stated as much. Iran and the US are not bound the same way. Maybe "Ayatollah and I may share" was a Freudian slip?

@Kallang22 Fair, thanks.

@freightmarket I replied but it was just to add flavour to what you said and not to contradict you personally.

This. There has been so many bad takes on the global coal market, with everyone focusing on how the world ex-China will switch to coal. Doesn't matter if the biggest, most price elastic buyer pulls back....

@Kallang22 I'm a shipping person, so care about volumes - for that purpose coal is a single market. And exports were not up in March.

@freightmarket Coal is 2 markets. High specs and low specs. Indonesia coal is for low specs, so less useful for JKTC clients (apart for blending)

@rev_cap @Geo_papic It's not about ships escaping but whether they return and actually restart the MEG oil trade. The *returning* ships will in all likelihood be dark/grey fleet ships (a fleet that will continue to expand). The further release of oil-on-water into the system is bearish crude though.

Seems kind of relevant but I hesitate to repost lest the bears lose their minds!

@Schwerepunkt Probably, but without an OFAC waiver you still cannot pay the "tolls" as a compliant ship/company since the IRGC is defined as a terrorist organization.

@freightmarket I’d bet Norwegian owned ships get a “neutral” or even “friendly” designation given the Norwegian government’s position on various things, including Gaza, Bibi’s arrest warrants, and the illegality of the US/Israeli strikes initiating the war. They’d probably prefer former, TBH.😂

Iran plans to classify countries as hostile, neutral or friendly, with only the latter two categories eligible for Hormuz passage according to @AJEnglish

@Vmaxpax OFAC will soon be the main bottleneck for trade on compliant "neutral" tonnage. Unless the Omanis maintain a safe shortcut.

💯 CEO of Okeanis Tankers told Pete Hegseth straight up that the issue is missiles and drones A new constraint for operators considering engaging with IRGC ‘toll booth’ is criminal legal exposure due to US Treasury OFAC sanctions on Iran. Will US issue waivers with reinsurance?

So ironically we could be moving into a situation where it is US OFAC regulations that block the Hormuz and not Iranian military threats or marine insurance. Good for the grey/dark fleet. Fragmentation of shipping would intensify.

Importantly, this could theoretically unblock a large share of the trapped fleet and sooth commodity markets. What matters is whether the fleet escapes or actually TRADES. The financial incentives will be there. However, OFAC and the IRGC terror designation stand in the way.

@BurggrabenH Agreed

Getting to “day one” is the real problem. Best case is May but it could easily take months. Most are conflating TACO with a reopening of the Strait. They are not the same. TACO doesn’t reopen anything. Instead, it entrenches Tehran’s veto. TACO is the worst case for markets. Even if flows resume after TACO, this won’t be a switch flip. It will be messy, partial, and conditional — think bilateral carve-outs with “friendly” countries. Russian style. Full normalization likely requires either new pipeline capacity that bypasses Tehran’s tollbooth, or a credible international naval effort (and likely boots on the ground) to finish what Trump started and may yet abandon. A “deal” is entertainment for the masses. Markets are not priced for this.

I'm going to take a risk here. And ask the BIG question: What if the situation in the Straits of Hormuz ain't going back to what it was? What if the Iranian "Toll Booth " is there to stay? First, some math: - According to today's freight prices, a VLCC goes for approximately 700k per day (10x what it was) . For a 30 day AG -- China voyage- that's $21m. - Throw on top of that 1-3% of hull value (yes you can buy insurance , it's harder but doable) - -that's another 3m or so. - Cargo value would be 2 million barrels * 120USD = =$240M. So the overall deal is $240M+ $21M + $3M + [IRANIAN TOLL BOOTH CHARGE $2M] = $266M USD. Out of which less than 1% is for Iran. I think many charterers and shipping companies will end up paying that, just like they paid the Houthis or they pay the Suez Canal in a very ROI driven analysis as an alternative to going around the Cape of Good Hope. So what's the way out? I think we've all learned a lesson in resilience. The Straits of Hormuz are structurally not resilient. So what should the world do? 1. Double down on Yanbu. Grow the pipe from 5m barrels a day to 7m and later to more. Maybe build another pipe to West Coast Red Sea. 2. Fujairah as an export hub has really been on a tear with approximately 1.8m barrels. I assume the UAE can scale that more. 3. Oman and Salalah- we've reported that actually Oman has been the great benefactor of all of this situation, with 3000%+ more vessels on the way. Despite a crane being hit by a drone and things slowing down a bit. These are sure-fire ways to make the world's supply chains more resilient. We can't all depend on one small straits, or we might end up with a very long show of the Dire Straits. [Image: @WindwardAI data shows the vessel "Al Salimi" hit within the E Anchorage off Dubai, where you have approximately 49 other 250m + vessels waiting]

@Vmaxpax Yeah, reflagging is pretty quick these days.

@freightmarket Ah, thank you! There’s so much going on all at once, it’s hard to keep track. Will be interesting to see what happens here, maybe just a financial loss for Panama as impacted vessels seek other registries.

There’s also that little problem with the Panamanian Registry being targeted by China in retaliation for annulment of port contracts Separate from canal rates, but a whole bunch of vessels hit by China on it. Some stuck/delayed. Others rapidly reflagging.

@AndersSjastad Question is whether this is just "trapped vessels escaping" or the start of ongoing exports. Those are very different outcomes for both energy and shipping.

What happens to this 18 mbpd loss when vessels keeps going through, yanbu produces 7 mbpd (exports 5), Fujairah, ceyhan and SPR releases? Worth considering that the net effects are smaller then the gross effect frequently flaunted by macro doomsters