freshmintcut
44 posts
Dramatic video shows the U.S. Navy Blue Angels making a low-altitude flyover above Pensacola Beach, Florida, on Wednesday. Navy officials confirmed in a statement that Blue Angels leadership is "reviewing the circumstances surrounding the maneuver and conducting a thorough safety review.” abcnews.link/wxR8vXz
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@ShaleTier7 Another Wall Street trader that thinks he can excel jockey his way to e&p knowledge. Hopefully he posts trades so everyone can take the other side.
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You heard it here first folks.
Waha will trade on-par with Henry Hub by next summer. Less than 365 days from now.
(I'm assuming Teddy's very robust model doesn't assume this causes any volume uplift)
Teddy “Trican-Jesus” Gambino@TeddyGambino
Spent the day going thru the natty-LNG oppy for the next 5yrs. My assumptions for current flaring/re-injection in Permian were off by a mile. Totally wiffed on conventional+GOM depletion out to 2031, for starters. 7bcf of Permian pipes coming from Q4 2026-Q3 2027, another tranche in 2028 and final late 2029/30. The waha bitching will be gone by the spring, will trade close to HH by next summer. Kimmeridge recent white paper missed a chunk of LNG projects+didn’t account for added production needed to fill expanded storage. At current 12m strip, not going to see the added pull necessary from Hville to meet 4-5bcf added needed by YE. Price up natty poker will need to increase, substantially from current levels. Demand goes vert 2027 thru 2031.
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@zerohedge deeply undervalued comment. this is in fact the only way to super intelligence.
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Payment for Information flow > Payment for Order Flow
Wait until token prices turn negative
Satya Nadella@satyanadella
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@SigEStructure They need to target the pipelines, gathering systems, and drilling equipment. They can put Russia back into the Stone Age they take those out.
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I fucking love Ukrainian drones! Kicking the shit out of the Russian energy infrastructure.
GIF
Tom Kloza@TomKloza
Another overnight attack by Ukraine sets Syzran refinery in Russia ablaze. The facility normally processes more than 160,000 b/d and is owned by Rosneft.
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@LPInvestor @opinioncasino Like saying hey I’m the best option trader in the world. Here’s my realized track record I’ve been profitable 15 times in a row but I conveniently leave out the mark to market on the current trade I’m in has wiped out the realized gains of all 15 trades and I’ve really made $0
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This was from Fund 2 market docs, so the answer is yes, the full track record was disclosed.
Not shown here is the Fund 1 marks at the time (2024) which were above cost, so likely most Fund 2 investors were investing under the presumption that Fund 1 doing just fine....
x.com/LPInvestor/sta…
REIT Bagholder@LPInvestor
People seem to wonder how S2 raised so much capital.... and this is why. Their 2012-2022 realized track record was insane... they perfected the sunbelt fix/flip/bridge-debt model and that was close to a 3x average gross return every few years on almost 50 deals with ZERO losers. It's fun to play monday morning quarterback but they did have a decade+ old platform that was printing money for them and their LPs. You can poke holes in the fees (but who cares on a 35%/2x net?), the nepotism, the wife, PJ, etc but at the end of the day, we're all out just trying to make money and it's hard not to look at a track record like this and not be intrigued.... Obviously the moral of the story is that there was a ton of embedded risk in the assets, markets, capital stack ("fixed rates is for suckers") and management.... but those are all easy to gloss over in real time when you think you're going to double/triple your money with zero work and buy your wife that Mexican beach villa you've been dreaming about.... 👀
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Let’s talk about how $373M walked into a burning building.
S2 Capital, Scott Everett’s Dallas multifamily shop, just dissolved its first fund — $400M, twenty properties, and a July 1 letter telling LPs there would be “no return of capital.” Zero. The private REIT S2 created in 2024 to shelter its floating-rate deals? Investors were told to expect a full loss of equity there too.
And yet between 2023 and 2025 — while Fund I’s vintage was visibly rotting — investors committed another $373M to Fund II. Ask yourself how that happens. Sophisticated people don’t knowingly wire eight figures into a strategy that’s underwater. So what did they actually see?
Here’s one clue. In January, FINRA censured and fined TPEG Securities — the Southlake, TX broker-dealer affiliated with Trinity Investors — $175,000. Trinity is not a random bystander here. Trinity was S2’s feeder: it raised capital alongside S2 for years, then earned commissions selling LP interests in S2’s funds. It’s the firm that told its own investors this spring to expect a total wipeout on the S2 REIT.
What did FINRA nail TPEG for? Marketing that used aggregated IRRs and cash-multiple figures across a sponsor’s prior closed deals — plus performance projections. FINRA’s finding was blunt: blended track-record numbers mask the performance of the individual deals. (The FINRA settlement doesn’t name the sponsor. Draw your own conclusions about whose deals a feeder for S2 was marketing.)
And that’s the entire trick. A sponsor that started in 2012 has a decade of deals. The early ones — bought at post-crash prices, sold into the 2021 frenzy — printed monster returns. The 2020-2021 deals — bought at peak, levered with floating-rate debt — are the ones going back to lenders. Average all of it into one number and the marketing says “phenomenal track record across dozens of deals.” Break it out by vintage and the picture screams: every recent deal, the ones most like what your new money will buy, is losing.
Investors in Fund II weren’t buying the 2013 track record. They were buying the 2023 strategy. One shiny blended number made it very hard to tell the difference — and a regulator has now formally said the firm selling those interests communicated in a way that masked exactly that.
Fund I: gone. The REIT: gone. Fund II LPs: watching. The question that matters now isn’t whether the marketing worked. It’s whether anyone who wired money after 2022 was ever shown a deal-by-deal, vintage-by-vintage breakdown — and if not, why not.
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@opinioncasino $1 billion is too low but directionally you’re correct. $1 billion plus.
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I estimate that S2 has DESTROYED $1 billion of capital since inception. Scott never went through any meaningful debt interest rate cycle in his career. He thought rates were always going to be low and credit markets always open. A greedy manager that did not understand risk management or a good capital structure.
Methodology notes on my table:
The $700M net distribution is an estimate. Carry fees on the JVs across vintages aren't disclosed, so I couldn't net them out—meaning if anything, $700M overstates what LPs actually received.
Roughly 40 JVs remain outstanding and unresolved. ~25 more—concentrated in the underwater 2020-21 vintage—were rolled into the S2C REIT. The PPM valued that rollover equity at ~$340M, which I believe materially overstates the true mark on those assets.
I also excluded the REIT as a discrete capital raise, deliberately: it was funded almost entirely with converted JV interests plus a small slug of new Founders Shares. Counting it would double-count LP capital already in the table.
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@cohamizu1 About half of all the spr releases this year have been exported to foreign countries.
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アメリカの戦略備蓄放出は7月10日前後くらいに終わると以前ポストしました。
予測通り備蓄のバッファがなくなり、ホワイトハウスは緊急用の石油があと10日～20日しかないと発表しています。
この惨状の中で外国に輸出するという非常識な考え方は、トランプはともかくアメリカの有権者にはないでしょう。
cohamizu@cohamizu1
Chris Martenson（Peak Prosperityの創設者、エネルギーアナリスト）の予測は以下の通りです。 SPRの「決定的な転換点（decision-point）」を7月11日頃と予測（彼が読んだ123ページのSPR公式報告書に基づく分析）。 →SPRの貯蔵洞窟には一度空にすると二度と使えなくなるタイプ（古い塩鉱山由来の単回使用型）と、繰り返し使えるタイプがある。 →現在残っているのは主に単回使用型の洞窟で、これを空にすると実質的な運用限界に達する。 →予測範囲は引き出しペースによってばらつきがありますが、昨日ホワイトハウスがあと10日～20日しかないと緊急事態宣言を出しています。 →彼の最新の見解でも、7月11日頃に安全バッファーがなくなるという予測を維持しておりそれを裏付ける形で「筆者の予測通り進んでいる」と考えています。 →SPRが実質的に底をつきかける7月11日前後というクリティカルなタイミングで、トランプがイランに対してさらに強硬姿勢を取っていることは「不可解で非常に危険」であることはいうまでもないでしょう。 こうして両手でカウントできる程度の日数しか残されていない中、時間だけが無駄に過ぎています。
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@nasosoasos $400 would be quite a Christmas gift from the Donald
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@CapRateKen Are you out of your mind?! He’s charging 14% in fees and you think 4% is skin in the game. With that fee structure 4% is part of the con.
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Believe it or not, looks like GP co-invested 4% into fund 1 and 2, apparently they had meaningful skin in the game. This is excluding the Trinity vehicles, still going through
Someone with the offering docs can better opine as to what they legally agreed to put in & in what form
REDMF@caisson68
Not defending S2 but if you’re an individual investor in their fund(s) and you didn’t ask how much personal capital the Everetts were investing pari passu with yours,, THAT’S ON YOU.
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You guys did an incredible job reporting on this - you were first for sure.
I'm curious: how do you think Trinity justified, in its role as the independent manager, recommending that LPs roll into the private REIT? Is it typical for there to be independent third-party appraisals or valuation opinions supporting a recommendation like that? And if so, do you know who performed them in this case?
I'm also curious how Trinity analyzed its potential conflicts, given its relationship with S2.
Finally, have any S2 LPs reached out to you with additional information? I've heard a lot of different things, but I'm trying to separate what's documented from what's just rumor.
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🚨 BREAKING: Another current/former S2 Capital LP has reached out regarding the 2024 private REIT roll-up.
According to the LP, Trinity "heavily encouraged" investors to approve the transaction, even though the vote was conducted pursuant to the applicable partnership agreements.
Our understanding so far is that Trinity served as the independent manager for the affected SPVs. One of the questions we're still trying to answer is what information and valuation materials Trinity relied upon in making its recommendations. Specifically, who prepared the valuations, what assumptions were used, and what analysis supported recommending the roll-up?
To be clear, this LP also emphasized they had positive experiences with prior S2 investments. Their concerns relate to the 2024 REIT roll-up process and governance, not necessarily S2's historical investment performance.
If you have firsthand knowledge or documents relating to the roll-up, my DMs are open.
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@freshmintcut @Bkclaims hahahaha. oh man, thanks for that
Tom is someone I like and whose content I enjoy, I'm sure he doesn't need some anon toad to defend him if I point something out.
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@hitsamty @Bkclaims Guess what loser. It’s his X account he can post whatever the hell he wants. And for the record I specifically follow him for this exact post. Your promote podcast didn’t dig into of these questions. You just sat there and glazed scott the whole time. begs how you’re involved.
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@Bkclaims Tom, how is this "breaking"? I love the enthusiasm and deep dives but this is getting a bit much. An LP reaching out is not something revelatory.
Some level of equanimity is important in these situations. Otherwise, you're just bringing out the worst instincts of this platform.
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@LPInvestor @Stupend61057969 Another retarded take. You don’t have a daily mark to market on the apartment portfolio.
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@Stupend61057969 If you kept a static 3:1 margin on SPY over the same time period, you probably would have been margin called in the 2020 drawdown and been zero'd out as well.... of course after making a ton of money....
Oldest leverage story in history....
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People seem to wonder how S2 raised so much capital.... and this is why.
Their 2012-2022 realized track record was insane... they perfected the sunbelt fix/flip/bridge-debt model and that was close to a 3x average gross return every few years on almost 50 deals with ZERO losers.
It's fun to play monday morning quarterback but they did have a decade+ old platform that was printing money for them and their LPs.
You can poke holes in the fees (but who cares on a 35%/2x net?), the nepotism, the wife, PJ, etc but at the end of the day, we're all out just trying to make money and it's hard not to look at a track record like this and not be intrigued....
Obviously the moral of the story is that there was a ton of embedded risk in the assets, markets, capital stack ("fixed rates is for suckers") and management.... but those are all easy to gloss over in real time when you think you're going to double/triple your money with zero work and buy your wife that Mexican beach villa you've been dreaming about.... 👀
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@Geiger_Capital That’s what you get when you let Indians run American companies.
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Microsoft continues to lay off thousands of American employees, while simultaneously applying for thousands of H-1B visas.
This is absurd and should be illegal.
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@Adam_Is_Pneuma @LPInvestor Their entire business model boiled down to shorting interest rates on massive leverage. That is all they were doing under the hood. Zero risk management. Complete degeneracy.
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@LPInvestor Nah this ain’t it. Completely ignore established credit and market cycles? They didn’t discover and endless money printing glitch. They got lucky on timing for a short while. Nothing more, nothing less.
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@LPInvestor You do realize this is a retarded take right? All they did was short interest rates with massive leverage. That is ALL their business model boils down to. You would have to be a moron to believe this is a sustainable business that wouldn’t blow up.
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@thepromotepod this was bush league fellas. you don’t dig into anything on scott. nothing about trinity investors, packaging good properties with bad to socialize losses, the fees he was charging, the fees trinity were charging. you sat there and glazed him. pathetic.
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TODAY on the pod: The lads break down the S2pocalypse: with $400M in capital evaporated, the pitchforks are out for bigwig multifamily syndicator Scott Everett. Schadenfreude abounds.
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@Bkclaims Isn’t this the same thing as the sub prime mortgage disaster? Package a bunch of junk together with a few good things and call it all good?
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👀 Could be just the tip of the iceberg.
Remember, S2 rolled thousands of apartment units from numerous syndications into a private REIT and raised new capital in an attempt to stabilize the platform.
But putting a collection of troubled assets into one vehicle isn't financial alchemy. If some portfolios were materially healthier than others, the obvious question is whether losses were effectively socialized across different funds and investor groups to try to save the broader enterprise.
If the platform was already under severe financial stress when those transfers occurred, I'd expect investors and creditors to scrutinize the transactions closely - including solvency, valuations, disclosures, and whether every investor group was treated fairly.
The REIT may not have solved the underlying problem. It may have simply concentrated it.
If you're an investor, lender, or creditor anywhere in this structure and are exploring your options - including selling a claim or discussing the situation - feel free to reach out.
We've been investing in distressed and special situations for nearly 20 years at 117 Partners, and we're always interested in evaluating complex restructurings and claims.
Kyle Mitchell@opinioncasino
June 1st everything looks fine for Scott Evertt. Smoking arm candy. Luxury house you live at. Flexing on social media. Literally a month later. Lose all $400mm of your investor capital. Arm candy probably has no idea this has occurred. She’s about to give him support for a year or so. But when he can’t raise capital anymore and support their lifestyle. And even worse, if he did something funky with the money and gets in trouble with regulators, well let’s just say she will be leaving him. My wife left me. And is bouncing on some Applebee Barback hog. Not great.
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@MacroAlphaHQ I’ll bet you bottom ticked the market with this post. Macro guys are always wrong for size.
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energy bulls are screaming about a breakout while completely ignoring the physical tape.
we just hit 1.37 billion barrels of oil sitting on the water.
thats the highest number on record, and it changes the entire crude structure.
actually wait, look at the spreads.
the Houston crude premium over WTI just completely evaporated.
paper traders see tankers delayed in the Persian Gulf and panic buy.
physical buyers know that oil is just acting as a massive floating inventory overhang.
the sequence is pretty mechanical.
the logistical logjam builds the glut at sea.
foreign buyers see it coming and stop bidding up US crude for immediate delivery.
then the Houston premium dies.
anyone holding long front-month WTI waiting for a breakout is about to get run over by delayed supply.
you dont get a sustained rally when the rest of the world flat out refuses to pay up for Houston barrels.
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Hormuz exit transits without fresh loadings to sustain them are a temporary sugar high
Middle East* oil loadings are up notably through June, largely on UAE recovery, but are still only at roughly half pre-war levels
*Inc reroutes: Gulf + Red Sea + Gulf of Oman, excluding Oman
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