0xfro

On Punk Strategy (PS): Some stream-of-consciousness initial thoughts: 1/ PS is a simplistic (not full AMM), inventory-bound market maker (buys and sells), not a Saylor-esque laser eyes buy-and-HODL DAT 2/ PS generates short-term profits in up markets and not in down markets. If you believe in long-term up-only for punks, it will create long-term profits too, but fewer profits than just HODLing punks would have 3/ you can indirectly participate in the profits generated from #2, to the degree that profits are generated, by buying the token under the theory that token buybacks will make number go up (this is sometimes true and sometimes not in tokens) 4/ the tax on token transactions creates working capital for the market-making in #1. In classic terms, the token contains both the GP and LP and has a large front-end and back-end load (10% as of right now) on both the GP and LP. There is no real exact analogy in tradfi but it is something like that 5/ PS has a small tribute from the other Strategies, though this does not change the fundamental analysis 6/ I somehow "disagree" with both Team PS and @PunksOTC, in that I think it is net more positive long-term for the CP price than for the PS token because it creates buying pressure whether token is going up or down. Though ofc @punksOTC spends a lot more time market making punks so I might be wrong 7/ The fact that PS relists higher as opposed to not listing does not seem to me to be a net negative - those punks were already listed, but lower. If a human collector wants to buy them and HODL them, they can anyway so this is net incrementally more buying pressure at all times 8/ In other words, imagine you have an NFT collection and two people started trading an unrelated token back and forth between themselves and, for some reason, took 10% of their trades and said "we will blindly buy the floor NFT and list it for a higher price, and never list it for a lower price" You may wonder if this is a good strategy for those two people, but it is probably good for your NFT collection's floor price and liquidity so long as they are happy to do it 9/ I think the PS people saying "don't look at NAV or NAV multiple" (they are 50x ore whatever right now) are right because the goal here is NOT a long-term hold for price appreciation What you should be looking at instead is: a) as the expected profit stream from the trading strategy and b) applying a multiple to that 10/ Of course, "should" is carrying a huge amount of water here since this is crypto, and obviously we trade on vibes not on "financial ratios", so I do not put much credence (good or bad) in traditional financial analysis for crypto 11/ It is just that IF you are going to use a tradfi metric, the right one here is price/earnings, not mNAV, I think 12/ Is "buy floor and list x% more" the world's most advanced trading strategy? Obviously not, I think if someone offered you an investment bot that "bought the floor and sold it 20% higher" you would not have been ultra-impressed 13/ These are the challenges with smart contracts - it is hard to get advanced strategies into the EVM and it is an area that needs work for us to progress to building more complex self-driving systems 14/ As always in crypto, the speed of capital formation is astonishing 15/ Is this a better relationship between a fungible and an NFT than: "no relationship at all" and "the NFTs 'yield' fungible coins" - I think so because of #6 above - I think the benefits in the end will accrue to the NFT collection 16/ Is any of this a price prediction or investment advice? Are you kidding me? - I have no idea what BTC is going to do, so obviously I have no idea what the right price is for something that was $5M two weeks ago and $300M today 17/ Is this the type of thing that can happen with network art and cannot happen with digital art in a museum? Yes! I am mostly disinterested in the exact mechanics of PS, but do think it is the latest example of why network art is different Success or failure, PS will be there forever now, as long as Ethereum and punks themselves. This is wild, fascinating and I think we will see endless more experiments like this over the next 1, 10 and 100 years 18/ One of the reasons I am infinitely bullish on early/important/top 10,000, 100,000 or 1M or whatever NFTs is that I think they will be the 'target' of endless smart contract based experiments over the years and we have no idea what will happen over time Just like BTC is more important the Strategy or any ETF, DAT, etc, I think CP are more important than any vehicle, person, contract buying or selling them 19/ I would love to see a Punk Strategy but with "the sales button taken away" - I don't have time to do it, but if someone did it well and professionally and non-scammy, I would buy a few tokens 20/ As you know, I have trouble finding the "sell" button in general, so I like the idea of collectively buying punks but I dislike the idea of collectively selling them for 20% more 21/ So if we take this idea to its logical conclusion, why sell them at all? Why not have a token that just funds buys only? In time, 10 years? 50? 100? could it become the largest owner? Who knows? If people stay interested, "yes"; if not "no" but we could probably, almost certainly buy at least 1 and that would be fun 22/ I have been beefing with @batsoupyum all weekend because he is a Boomer (tm) and he is telling me all types of Boomer things like "this would be like a closed end fund and you need to be able to redeem otherwise the token will trade at a discount to NAV, blah blah" As if PS, and CryptoDickButts and so on trade on financial ratios 23/ In any case, every properly fractionalized NFT / NFT collection with a redemption mechanism (Fractional, Whale, etc) has always traded at a discount to NAV because it is boring - just hanging around owning a 1% of a punk in the hope that later you will sell it for more, is very boring IMHO. I bought some fractionalized $APE back in 2021 and almost died on the spot from boredom. 24/ One the other hand, "we will collectively own a lot of punks forever", I dunno, that seems more fun and interesting and you can "do things" with them 25/ To continue the thought experiment: if it makes you feel better, say you could sell them in 99 years. Does that change anything? I don't think so, but it gives an "exit" for those who feel they need it. And it makes no difference IMHO if it is "never", 99 years, 69 years, 42 years etc 26/ If you "buy and HODL" in an immutable self-driving contract, would this move the sense of ownership transitively to the token? I am not sure, but it is an interesting question I think. 27/ "But you would lose the burn of PS" -> I mean, OK, sure but this does not reflect my "investment thesis" as such on punks. If this was important to me, I would have sold my punks a long time ago and not just captured profits from the burn indirectly moving the token price (maybe), but directly from the sale. But beyond the fact that I generally like NFTs and do not want to sell them, I do think 10 years from now punks will be worth more than today (NFA, etc, etc) so even from an "investment" perspective, swing trading them seems not ideal 28/ thank you to @Rhynotic for giving me the opportunity to think about something different and put my brain cells to work 29/ for those in profit, don't forget to take the chance to buy some NFTs 30/ As always, do not read into this my views on the financial side of PS - I have no idea what my views are on the token, in the immediate, short, medium or long-term, so for sure you don't either.

Alright screw it. I got plenty of time over the next 4-6 months. Thinking of freshly funding $10k into my wallet and explore @HyperliquidX eco. What's my best first move? Farming DEX point? Stake my $HYPE?