Fugitive42

97 posts

Fugitive42

Fugitive42

@fugitive4242

Maine, USA Katılım Ocak 2025
12 Takip Edilen12 Takipçiler
Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@Dancingtapas Right now the market cap is only sitting at roughly 5x last year's full year revenue That's ridiculous with Amtagvi ramping and 60%+ revenue growth last year New guidance in early May could easily deliver that 20-30% you mentioned especially if they give color on margin expansion
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Sally struthers returns
Sally struthers returns@Dancingtapas·
@fugitive4242 I don't think they compare to lung cancer data but certainly guidance and margins could lead to a 20-30 percent bump. What's your opinion.
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
$IOVA Looks like 4 Abstracts/Poster sessions at ASCO 2026.
Fugitive42 tweet mediaFugitive42 tweet media
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@Dancingtapas None of those. Earnings and guidance in early May are the next catalysts.
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@Dancingtapas I say 100% they have a slot. If not they need to fire everyone. 😁
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
$IOVA If they have an accepted slot at ASCO 2026 (oral presentation, poster, poster discussion, or late-breaking abstract), the title must appear on tomorrow’s list (Tuesday, 10:00 AM ET). There are no exceptions or later additions after this date. They've been very quiet so....
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
$IOVA Tomorrow Tuesday, 4/21/26 at 10:00 AM ET Abstract titles ( all Late Breaking Abstracts / LBAs) are released publicly. They go live on the ASCO meetings site (meetings.asco.org). This is the first public look at what’s accepted. No full data yet, just the headlines
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@Drcm4t @BIOTECHSCANNER 2028 runway isn’t infinite, but it’s enough time for the clinical and commercial engine to actually work. That’s what the original post meant by “cash oils the machine.” We bought time Now it’s on management to deliver the milestones that make today’s % ownership worth a lot more
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Cm4t
Cm4t@Drcm4t·
@fugitive4242 @BIOTECHSCANNER but as that cash gets burned, unless the company starts to report positive eps and significant revenue growth, our shares in the company are worth less and less on a % basis.
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BIOTECH SCANNER
BIOTECH SCANNER@BIOTECHSCANNER·
$IOVA - I want everyone to know that we have an amazing group of investors who bring so much value to the community. Several of them have massive number of shares. They have invested in the company longer than I have. They have endured the ups and downs over the years. They follow the company extremely closely. They provide with information that I have not looked into on a regular basis. Investing in biotech is a treacherous endeavor, and we have to help each other. This is why I refuse to take my research to other platforms to monetize for myself. Many have made hundreds of thousands on the tickers I have released both biotech and non-biotech. I don’t want you to be my customers. I don’t need your money. The only thing that I expect is that you would contribute positively to the community. If you share DD, whether it’s negative or positive, you have to back them up with evidence. You have to process it in your head before tagging me. You can’t simply say, “looks like they diluted again.” That’s not DD! We have to raise the bar on information sharing. Why am I expecting this? Because we are swimming in shark infested waters my friends. Shorts and manipulative traders are everywhere. Many of them follow me. They track my posts. We have to be careful about what we say. Does this mean if a company did something outrageous I won’t bring it up? Of course not! I called out one of my favorite management AQST for not making sure the FDA is all good with everything including the human factor trial. Management saw that several volunteers didn’t use Anaphylm correctly! They could have done another HF trial before submitting the NDA! There was no rush! Yet Dan Barber said everything looks like approval is coming. Nope! If IOVA does something wrong, I will point it out as well. But the dilution discussion is MANIPULATION at its worst. It’s the same tactic used by shorts and manipulative day traders on a daily basis. It’s a lazy move but unfortunately it’s worked so they keep using it. We are smarter than this. This community is better than getting misinformed by these sleazy shorts. We should be able to put information in context. When the company announced an additional 150 million shares to the OS one of them immediately said “the company wants to add 150 million shares to the ATM.” You see? Since when is the entire outstanding shares of a company is in its ATM? NEVER! But they want you to think like this: “The company is diluting and the share price will be stuck as long as it keeps doing it.” Really? Facts: Share prices go up and down regardless of dilution or not. Look at Rocket Lab and many other unprofitable companies that have diluted last year and see how much the stock has moved up! What about dilution and $IOVA? I released this ticker again at $1.78 last year and called it the most bottomed out biotech. Didn’t it hit $5.63? How did that happen? If you believed in the shorts’ narrative you would have missed this run! Baker Bros Advisors didn’t see this move coming from IOVA. I did. But $5.63 is peanuts. I want $20, $30 and beyond. All of that dilution and still. The truth is this is not unique to IOVA! It happens all over the place. Have you heard of catalysts like positive earnings and improved margins or positive trial data? These catalysts will always trump dilution. But shorts don’t want you to think that way. Is dilution always bad or should we examine the progress the company makes with the funds? Or is that too much work and we should just believe the FUD? Here’s another fact: Don’t be surprised if there will more dilution from Iovance! But don’t be surprised that the share price will still be at least $7 by end of this year with $10 still a strong possibility. Who are you going to believe? The lazy shorts or someone who actually provides evidence for his claims? You choose.
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just a random dude
just a random dude@jy201506·
It's a legit question: “why raise at $4 when you could raise at $10 potentially down the road.” I think it’s actually more about never being forced to raise at $2 than maximizing at $10. $IOVA isn’t optimizing for the highest price on one perfect raise—they’re optimizing to survive and stay funded through uncertainty. Drip ATM = • maintain ~18–24 months runway (market punishes hard when runway < 12 months and company loses leverage in negotiations) • avoid binary financing risk ( $IOVA may reach $10 on the back of NSCLC success, but what if it didn't?) • sell into strength when it shows up (I believe they have been optimizing within each quarter where they try to raise around catalysts within each quarter) • reduce chance of distressed dilution later (avoid situation where they run out of cash and key catalysts such as NSCLC doesn't pan out) Waiting for one big catalyst sounds good, but if it disappoints even slightly, they lose leverage fast. This is a risk-managed treasury strategy, not a lack of confidence. It's basically dollar-cost averaging for the company. It's the right strategy to run a steady business. I anticipate them to continue to do so until reaching profitability likely in 2028.
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Project Kai
Project Kai@kainvests·
$IOVA Yesterday, Iovance filed a PRE 14A form (ir.iovance.com/static-files/3…) as a notice for the Annual Meeting of Stockholders, scheduled for June 10, at 11:00h local time. Now let's do some numbers and extract some meaningful conclusions on where we stand shares-wise and what Iovance's decisions may hint regarding which strategic pathway Iovance is most likely to follow: going solo or a buyout. 🧮 Let's start with some maths! According to this filing, as of April 15 2026, Iovance had 446,502,396 shares outstanding. Remember that the 10-K filed on February 13, 2026, just 61 days earlier, stated 411,961,607 shares outstanding (source: ir.iovance.com/node/15616/html), so that's 34.5M new shares created. These shares are coming from the ATM or At-the-market facility, which allows Iovance to sell new shares quietly, directly into the stock market, day by day, at whatever the current price is. In the last ≈ 12 months, 112.6 million shares have been created. In percentage terms: 33.7% dilution in ≈ a year. Do take into account that a smaller portion of new shares comes from routine sources: employee stock options being exercised, restricted stock units vesting, and employee share purchase plans. For a company this size, that typically accounts for 5–10 million shares per year. The Proposal 6 section of the PRE 14A form states that shareholders will vote on whether to increase the total number of shares Iovance is legally allowed to create: from 500 million to 650 million. That creates 150 million new shares that they may choose to raise or not. At $3.80, fully using all of that would raise approximately $570 million. We expect the stock price to rise with quarter-over-quarter improvement and clinical data updates. We may have positive news from Australia as well; we shall see. While it is frustrating that dilution is on the table and Iovance seems to have overpromised and underdelivered in their commitment to prioritise stakeholder value and explore alternative funding methods, the priority is getting us to the finish line. Whether they may tap the ATM or not, expanding it was a must-do for a company in their situation. 👩🏻‍💼👨🏻‍💼 Something revealing that can be extracted from Page 24 Director Compensation section and subsequent pages is the fact that management voluntarily changed their own pay formula: Instead of a fixed dollar amount, they switched to a fixed percentage of shares outstanding: 0.142% of the total share count, split among all eligible directors. Total director equity pool for 2025: 472,825 shares across all directors. Under the old system at $2.58, each director would have received roughly 165,000 shares. Under the new system, they received 67,546 shares each. They voluntarily took less than half to avoid taking a windfall from a price they clearly believe is temporarily depressed. You may have also noticed that the board will vote on renewing Fred for one more year. For a moment, I thought: “Oh, maybe that signals a buyout?” Unfortunately, it doesn’t! This is the same timeframe for which he is renewed every year. ♟️ So, what does this tell us about a potential going solo or buyout out scenario? It seems that Iovance is executing an independent path to NSCLC approval, because that is what maximises the eventual sale price. It seems management wants to get Iovance to a position of strength and perhaps sell post a potential NSCLC FDA approval, as expected and hoped by most of us in the StockTwits community. But remember, a buyout will get us high returns quicker; going solo will require more patience, but act as a multiplier. In any case, everybody wins. In short, our investment thesis has not changed. We still need three things: 1. Consistent and substantial quarter-over-quarter improvement. 2. Good enough NSCLC data. 3. Nothing critical to happen (severe maintenance issues, severe misguidance, etc.). Long is the way, let's ride. 🤍
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@BIOTECHSCANNER iCTC campus can only handle 5,000 patients annually and that capacity won't be ready for a couple years. They will need to expand significantly and quickly as demand increases.
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BIOTECH SCANNER
BIOTECH SCANNER@BIOTECHSCANNER·
$IOVA - Before you take off for the weekend, I want to share this with you to hopefully make it even better! As you are aware, due to what happened with the previous CFO who gave outrageous inflated guidance, and caused all kinds of problems for shareholders. The current CFO, Corleen Roche is very careful about giving guidance. In fact, she hasn’t given full year 2026 guidance yet! To the uninformed people, this spell troubles because the guidance must be low. Shorts will try to use this to further their short sighted agenda. Remember, this management is now taking a very conservative approach when giving guidance. With that in mind, guess what the CEO said about Amtagvi’s market potential in the USA alone? Approximately $12 billion per year for peak revenue IN THE US ALONE!!! How did he come up with that number? He estimated that Amtagvi sales will be above $1B for melanoma. Another $1B for soft tissue sarcomas and $10B for NSCLC. Try hard to not think about “In the US alone” for the $12B from a conservative management estimates. And I have not even mentioned the next generation TIL products yet with multiple other indications 💥 Let me remind you that we are only about a year away from a potential approval for NSCLC. There is a possibility that Amtagvi will be given the Chairman National Priority Voucher (CNPV) that will cut review time to 1-2 months! $IOVA is the company that I have gotten many of my friends and family (wife) to invest in. I believe this will be an incredible investment for my family’s future. Do your research. Ask me questions and if I can help I will. Listen to the Q4 2025 earnings call and pay attention at the 35 minute mark. Have an awesome weekend! ir.iovance.com/events/event-d…
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@financialway EU Expansion: Global rollout begins April 1st in the European Union. A brand new, massive revenue stream is officially open. What's this ? That's not accurate or even close.
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Pedro Morales
Pedro Morales@financialway·
$IOVA Facts: The absolute reality. 🚀🔥 The mathematical trap is closed. Here is the sequence of facts the shorts can no longer deny: ✅ 52% Efficacy: Last week’s data confirmed a massive 52% efficacy rate. The medicine works and the market knows it. ✅ 87 ATCs: Infrastructure is ready. 87 Authorized Treatment Centers are now fully operational and delivering. ✅ 24/7 Manufacturing: Philadelphia is officially at 24/7 production capacity. No more bottlenecks; scalability is now a fact. ✅ EU Expansion: Global rollout begins April 1st in the European Union. A brand new, massive revenue stream is officially open. ✅ Fibonacci R1 BROKEN: Technical resistance is gone. The trend is officially bullish. ✅ OOS Risk DEAD: 100% revenue safety guaranteed via EAP. Top-tier centers like Stanford, City of Hope (California) and MD Anderson (Texas) are already available and billing. ✅ 5X Gamma Pressure: The options multiplier is building up for a massive squeeze. The coiled spring is ready to explode. Math doesn't lie. Shorts are fighting a losing battle. 📈 #IOVA #Biotech #Nasdaq #Investing #WallStreet
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@BIOTECHSCANNER I don't think 93 views on YouTube is really going to push the needle much. They need to go far bigger, 60 minutes interview or a commercial for AMTAGVI come to mind. I think something like that would do the trick.
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BIOTECH SCANNER
BIOTECH SCANNER@BIOTECHSCANNER·
$IOVA - Dr. Brian Gastman being interviewed on TV about cellular therapy for metastatic melanoma on 3/20/2026. This is part of the unbranded awareness campaign that I was waiting to be completed before announcing the event. I just didn’t know the exact timing except that it would be soon. Chris White @MucosalMelanoma was invited to take part in the campaign. He did a fantastic job. It’s important to note that this was an unbranded campaign. The company has to be very careful with what they can say. Note that Amtagvi wasn’t mentioned. Amtagvi is now becoming a standard of care. This is every pharma company’s dream when the drug is almost automatically chosen as a default first and then ruled out only if the patient doesn’t qualify due to physical limitations or other factors. It’s the opposite of what happens when a drug is not a standard of care when doctors have to give reasons for not using standard of care treatment first. When a physician is not using standard of care treatments, they are basically going “off script” and when things go awry, they have to answer to the patients, insurance and their own hospitals. Amtagvi being a standard of care is a game changer for a company with only 1 drug. By the time NSCLC sBLA is approved, oncologists are already aware of the treatment. Again, this is a dream scenario for $IOVA. $IOVA will be a monster in solid tumors. It’s just getting started with advanced melanoma. youtu.be/KKAUFRPaFFE?si…
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Pedro Morales
Pedro Morales@financialway·
🚨 $IOVA Catalyst: The new Short Interest report drops tomorrow, April 16. 📊 Per FINRA schedule, this data reflects short positions as of March 31. Understanding this lag is crucial to gauge the real bearish conviction. Stay focused. 🚀 #IOVA #ShortInterest
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@financialway NICE appraisal is already underway. NICE is conducting a Single Technology Appraisal (STA) for lifileucel in previously treated unresectable or metastatic melanoma. The expected publication date for NICE guidance is 8 October 2026. Draft guidance in 2025 did not recommend it.
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Pedro Morales
Pedro Morales@financialway·
🚨 Market is sleeping on the UK catalyst. While some wait for August, the new MHRA-NICE "Aligned Pathway" (launched April 1st) is a game changer for $IOVA. It could slash 6 months off the timeline. Management's 1H 2026 target is now a high-conviction play. Global expansion! 🌍🚀
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Fugitive42
Fugitive42@fugitive4242·
@MashReez @susan_naud_link Yes down the road a bidding war is very likely. Need a share price closer to $20 before that action starts. NSCLC approval starts the process, frontline TILVANCE-301 icing on the cake and Sarcoma is the ice cream. Monster in the making!
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