

0x₿aron ᵍᵐ
12.7K posts

@fun_nft
Historical NFT collector. Full sets: @SpellsofGenesis (2015) & @MyCurioCards (2017). Rare Pepe. Etheria v0.9. Peperium. v1 Punk. BAYC. Art. See Linktree.👇




BREAKING: The world thought Hormuz was an oil story. Then it became an LNG story. If the damage assessment holds, it becomes a civilisation-input story that lasts half a decade. There is a difference between a shipping shock and a capacity shock that the market has not yet priced. A shipping shock traps molecules. The oil exists, the gas exists, the tankers are anchored, and when the strait reopens the molecules flow again. A capacity shock destroys molecules. The liquefaction trains that convert gas into LNG are physically damaged. The molecules cannot be produced even if every ship in the world is available to carry them. QatarEnergy’s CEO Saad al-Kaabi told Reuters that damage to Ras Laffan is severe. Repairs to impaired liquefaction capacity could take three to five years. Force majeure was declared on March 4 and has since escalated as the damage assessment worsened through March 18 and 19. Long-term contract buyers including Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China face multi-year delivery disruptions. Shell declared force majeure on cargoes it resells from QatarEnergy. The market must now confront a possibility it has refused to model: that roughly 17 percent of Qatar’s 77 million tonne per annum capacity is not delayed but structurally impaired. JERA’s CEO stated that the global LNG market does not have the spare capacity to bridge the gap if Hormuz-linked supply is meaningfully lost. That single sentence reprices everything. If the replacement molecules do not exist in sufficient volume, the adjustment mechanism is not alternative supply. It is fuel switching, demand destruction, and rationing by balance-sheet strength. Rich buyers can pay more. Poor buyers cannot. The poor buyers are already breaking. Vietnam’s diesel is up 40 to 59 percent. Australia’s petrol is up 70 cents per litre. Sri Lanka is rationing fuel with QR codes at 15 litres per car per week, a four-day workweek, and Wednesday school closures. India raised LPG prices while importing 85 percent of its crude through a strait that is 90 percent shut. Gulf air cargo collapsed 79 percent. Jet fuel surged 58 percent. IndiGo and Akasa imposed surcharges. Vietnam Airlines warned of shortages from April. Ninety-five countries have reported petrol price increases since February 28. Ras Laffan is not just LNG. It is helium, urea, methanol, polyethylene, and sulfur. The downstream cascade from a multi-year Qatari impairment runs through semiconductor fabrication, pharmaceutical synthesis, phosphate fertiliser production, food packaging, and desalination. The facility that is damaged produces the molecules that four billion people depend on for chips, medicine, fertiliser, plastic, and drinking water. Europe’s post-2022 gas security was built on Qatari LNG replacing Russian pipelines. A structural impairment does not merely make gas expensive. It makes gas unavailable to industry. That is how an LNG shock becomes a deindustrialisation shock. BASF and Yara are already cutting fertiliser output. Russian LNG fills the gap at 18 to 22 percent of European imports. The country Europe sanctioned is the country Europe now depends on because the country Europe trusted was struck in a war Europe refused to join. Anyone arguing this resolves quickly now carries the burden of proof. They must explain where the replacement molecules come from when the world’s largest LNG hub is physically impaired, the strait is commercially closed, and the CEO of Asia’s biggest power buyer says there is no bridge. The market priced a shipping delay. The evidence demands a capacity repricing. The difference between those two words is measured in years, in trillions of dollars, and in whether the lights stay on. Full analysis: open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…



Abu Dhabi intercepted the missiles. The debris shut down the gas fields anyway. Habshan gas processing facilities and the Bab field were both taken offline today as a precautionary measure after falling debris from successful missile interceptions struck the sites. Abu Dhabi authorities confirmed it. No injuries. Both facilities shut down. The public was told to rely only on official sources. The air defense system worked exactly as designed. The warheads were destroyed before impact. And two of the UAE’s most important gas production facilities went dark because the wreckage from a successful interception is still wreckage. This is the paradox that no interception rate can solve. Gulf air defenses intercept 90 to 96 percent of incoming projectiles. Those rates are extraordinary. They save lives. They prevent direct detonation on target. What they do not prevent is debris. A missile destroyed at altitude does not vanish. It fragments. The fragments fall. They fall on the same geography the missile was aimed at. And when that geography contains gas processing infrastructure with pressurised systems, heat exchangers, and pipeline junctions, falling metal at terminal velocity is sufficient to trigger a precautionary shutdown regardless of whether the warhead detonated. Ras Laffan was hit directly today. Riyadh was hit directly today. Habshan and Bab were hit by the defence that worked. Three countries. Four facilities. Two by Iranian missiles. Two by the wreckage of intercepted Iranian missiles. The result is the same: offline. Iran does not need to penetrate the air defense shield. It needs to overwhelm the geography underneath it. Every missile that is intercepted over an energy facility still deposits debris on that facility. The interception prevents the warhead from functioning. It does not prevent the airframe, the motor casing, the guidance section, and the fuel residue from falling on infrastructure that was designed to process gas, not absorb ballistic fragments. The mathematics of this are devastating for the Gulf’s energy posture. Three hundred fourteen ballistic missiles and 1,672 drones launched at the UAE since February 28. At 90 to 96 percent interception, roughly 280 to 300 of those missiles were destroyed over UAE territory. Each one produced debris. Each debris field covered a footprint measured in hundreds of metres. Across nineteen days, the cumulative debris footprint covers a significant fraction of the UAE’s coastal energy infrastructure corridor. Even perfect interception rates produce imperfect debris patterns over the geography they are defending. Shekarchi threatened to burn Gulf energy facilities to ashes. He may not need to. The interception debris is doing it for him. Not through fire. Through precautionary shutdowns triggered by falling metal from the missiles his forces launched and the defenses that successfully destroyed them. The Fed just raised PCE to 2.7 percent and flagged Middle East developments as uncertain. Trump just directed no more strikes on Iranian energy. The IRGC just published satellite targeting images of five Gulf facilities. And Abu Dhabi just shut down two gas fields because the defense that saved lives could not save production. The interception rate is 96 percent. The shutdown rate from debris is 100 percent when the debris lands on a gas plant. And the urea at $610 does not distinguish between a warhead that detonates and one that falls in pieces. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…



















@TylerSCrypto FYI inverted hammer is actually bearish when tested. 65% bear continuation. One of a couple of examples where textbook is wrong when tested (similar to hanging man)

Nobody is talking about how Etheria is now one of the highest priced NFTs because everything else went to zero. Zero talk about it. Its priced at nearly the same floor as Pudgy Penguins. It flipped the Squiggles floor price. I think it may even be in the top 10 floor prices.