Łukasz Fyderek

US-Iran backchannel diplomacy is simultaneously alive and dead. Schrödinger's negotiations

🚨An Israeli official told ne the mediating countries were trying to convene a meeting in Islamabad — with Ghalibaf and other officials representing Tehran, and Witkoff, Kushner and possibly Vice President Vance representing the U.S. - possibly later this week

It appears US-Iran negotiations did take place in Pakistan after all.

i worry that tehran interprets this level of incoherence/inconsistency as panic.

At least 39 energy oil refineries, natural gas fields and other energy sites in 9 countries have been damaged since US and Israel began bombarding Iran, a @nytimes analysis found. Some have been struck by drones. Several have been hit more than once. nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Larijani’s replacement will be appointed by IRGC. With every assassination U.S. and Israel engineering greater radicalization of Iran’s leadership. It will makes for a bleak future for Iran, Iranians, the region and ultimately makes it far more difficult for U.S. to disentangle itself from endless conflict in the region.

🇮🇷📲🇺🇸A direct communications channel between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi & U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff has been reactivated in recent days, according to a U.S. official & a source with knowledge. Read the story by @MarcACaputo & me on @Axios axios.com/2026/03/16/ira…

IZRAEL I IRAN NIE RUSZĄ SYRII. Nowe czasy dla Damszku ze wsparciem Trumpa. Aktualna sytuacja - wszystko wyjaśnia prof. @fyderek @JagiellonskiUni Posłuchaj: youtu.be/a0nT8B8Bmf4

The Gulf states find themselves in a place very similar to the Europeans. Perhaps they both should develop/reimagine their cooperations : necessity is the mother of invention.

Nowa twarz irańskiego reżimu. Chęć zemsty motywem przewodnim jego rządów? @fyderek z @JagiellonskiUni był gościem @tterlikowski rmf24.pl/raporty/raport…

Iran w ogniu, o co chodzi w tej wojnie @fyderek Izrael murem za Netanyahu @AgnieszkaZagner obrona totalna po szwedzku @MarcinZyla Kanada: strategia wobec Trumpa @marcingabrys koniec bojkotu Rosji w sporcie @BanasiakMich Raport tu: raportostanieswiata.pl patronite.pl/DariuszRosiak

Declarations of air superiority are relative. Iran has road mobile air defenses that can hide and pop up out of nowhere. They have exotic stuff like loitering SAMs too. Moving fighters in for direct attacks doesn’t mean they can operate freely without threat, especially in some areas. The east is likely still significantly contested airspace. Still you need SEAD and EW support and the risk is higher to 4th gen fighters etc. So no, the airspace isn’t some sanitized zone, especially out east and risks are higher to aircrews now as we move to make deep penetrating direct attacks and up the sorties and numbers of target sets hit.

A rather scary read... and a repeat of what we saw in Gaza. "As planning for a potential strike in Iran was underway, Maven, powered by Claude, suggested hundreds of targets, issued precise location coordinates, and prioritized those targets according to importance, said two of the people. The pairing of Maven and Claude has created a tool that is speeding the pace of the campaign, reducing Iran’s ability to counterstrike and turning weeks-long battle planning into real-time operations, said one of the people. The AI tools also evaluate a strike after it is initiated, the person said." washingtonpost.com/technology/202…

The Israeli Air Force has attacked the "Assembly of Experts" meeting in Qom, Iran as they were gathering to choose the new Supreme Leader. The council is comprised of 88 religious leaders from around Iran who choose the Ayatollah.

What Iran’s fired at the Gulf states so far: wsj.com/world/gulf-sta…

After 55,000 Iran-made drones used by Putin against Ukraine in 2025, why are we surprised they are striking targets across the Persian Gulf states and more…We are in the Smart Bomb Trap

Gościem @BeataLubecka w „Trzech pytaniach na koniec dnia” będzie @fyderek politolog i specjalista ds. Bliskiego Wschodu, dyrektor Instytutu Bliskiego i Dalekiego Wschodu @JagiellonskiUni. Czekamy na Wasze pytania! Początek godz. 18:02. Zapraszamy! @RadioZET_NEWS

We wt w #3PnKD @fyderek szef Instytutu Bliskiego i Dalekiego Wschodu @JagiellonskiUni. Jeśli macie pytania, piszcie. Początek godz. 18.02. Zapraszam!

From Bloomberg: The United Arab Emirates and Qatar are privately lobbying allies to help them persuade President Donald Trump to reach for an off-ramp that would keep US military operations against Iran short, according to people familiar with the matter. #OOTT #Iran

Ataki na Kuwejt, Katar, ZEA, KAS i Oman są na razie ograniczone, lecz długotrwały ostrzał wyczerpuje zapasy obrony powietrznej krajów Zatoki. Uderzenia w instalacje odsalania wody lub elektrownie mogłyby wywołać poważny wstrząs społeczny.