btown_g

⚡️The real phenomenon is absorption without repricing. That is the phase before violent moves. When a massive buyer says they can buy $100M, $200M, $300M and price does not move, the naive read is: “Bitcoin demand is not strong enough.” The better read is: there is still a large supply wall being transferred into stronger hands. Price does not move when big buying is matched by equally large selling, OTC inventory, market-maker liquidity, ETF creation/redemption plumbing, arbitrage desks, miners, treasury sellers, old holders taking profit, or leveraged traders fading the move. The screen only shows the final print. It does not show the silent migration of ownership underneath. A big buyer like Strategy is usually not market-buying like a retail ape. They are not smashing the ask and announcing “number go up.” They are likely using execution desks, algorithms, OTC channels, VWAP/TWAP style programs, liquidity windows, and negotiated blocks. The goal is to acquire size without moving the market against themselves. So the buyer itself can suppress the visible move. That sounds counterintuitive, but it is basic execution logic. A disciplined whale does not want price to explode during accumulation. They want to sit there and absorb. They let sellers come to them. They avoid chasing. They break the order into pieces. They use liquidity when it appears. They create as little visible footprint as possible. That means price can look dead while the float is being eaten. This is the part most people miss: price is set by the marginal coin, not total buying. If a large buyer absorbs a giant seller at $X, price may not rise. But the seller is now gone. The supply that would have capped the next move has been removed. Later, when a smaller buyer comes in, the market moves faster because the earlier absorption already cleared the wall. That is why Saylor’s line about price rising after they stopped buying is believable structurally. During the program, the desk absorbs available supply carefully. After the program, the market has less sell-side depth left. Then normal buying can lift price because the heavy seller is no longer sitting there. The deeper mechanism is hidden float compression. Bitcoin’s displayed liquidity is fake in the sense that total supply is not tradable supply. A huge amount of BTC is lost, cold-stored, tax-locked, ETF-held, treasury-held, whale-held, or psychologically unavailable. What actually trades is the marginal float. If Strategy, ETFs, and long-duration holders keep pulling coins out of that float, the market can appear liquid until the exact moment it becomes violently illiquid. That is the ignition setup. A market can absorb billions quietly when sellers are present. Then one day the sellers are exhausted, liquidity thins, and price gaps higher on demand that would not have mattered before. The move looks sudden to outsiders. Underneath, the move was prepared by months of quiet absorption.

I am writing from FPC Morgantown prison in West Virginia. It has been about 5 months since I first surrendered myself in December, and I will be honest, the prospect of a Presidential pardon is very low. There was some hope during the Bitcoin 2026 conference, but that has now come and gone, and one must come to terms with the fact that I am simply a federal prisoner without money, power, or influence, and I will serve my full sentence. It will be years before I can even attempt to rebuild my life. Which is why I am now writing this appeal to you all now. Things are dire and we need your help. Lauren and I need your help desperately. More than ever before. We have over $2 Million of debt due to legal fees. We have a $250k fine the judge levied against us. Every day I get letters and calls from anxious lawyers looking to be paid. Or the DOJ demanding I start making payments on my fine. Perhaps it was denial or delusion, but I had hoped to do what I have always done and dig myself out of this hole myself - but with the reality of serving a full sentence that is not possible. I hate to ask for your help in this way but we are entirely out of options. We need to pay off these legal bills and other debts accrued attempting to defend myself. We desperately need your help. Now. For 10 years Bill and I built and published open source code and tools for Bitcoin users. Those same tools and code are what the government says were criminal. The tools and code still exist, they are out there right now and always will be. The creators however are locked away in Federal prison. The creators are the ones whose lives have been decimated. The creators are the ones who have been financially wiped out. The creators are the ones who desperately need you now. Please donate whatever you can to bc1qtjjcvn98wh7dfd55m8kxhjcfexanttwt8gtan8 . We have to get this albatross from around our neck. Samourai had well over 100,000 users. These users pushed over 2 billion dollars through our open source tools. We need those users and any bitcoiner who appreciates the work that we put into this industry for over a decade to help us now. Please donate whatever you can to bc1qtjjcvn98wh7dfd55m8kxhjcfexanttwt8gtan8 right now. If you require a private address please DM my wife @leamuirleyn and she will provide one. Please do not delay. Time is of the essence. Please help us. - Keonne

Bitcoin was around 90k in November. If you sold after Nov and paid 15%+ long-term capital gains tax (or higher), today’s $81.5k would effectively be $77k after taxes. You’d effectively have less Bitcoin than if you'd just held.

@LorenHodl @without_rulers My brother ordered a zip up hoodie from him and shipment was delayed because @without_rulers was attending the BTC conference. To make up for the delay, he very generously sent my bro 2 free t-shirts on top of his original order! The quality and designs are awesome.

I can’t say enough about how much I enjoy @without_rulers stuff. Here’s another of his designs 🧡

@martypartymusic @TheRealPlanC

100% agree with this ☝️ Great account must follow.

Bitcoin is about to go through its first supercycle: from $16,000 to $250,000+. The cycle began Nov 2022 at the $16,000 bear market low. The first peak was $126,000 and the mid-cycle low was $60,000. The next cycle peak will land in the second half of 2027 to the first half of 2028, and I would be surprised to see anything less than $250,000 at the supercycle top.

🚨 Important Point: Bitcoin Let me remind you again, like I said two months ago. Bitcoin has NEVER had its FULL, complete bull market EVER while the PMI was below 50 the whole time. It's wild that people honestly think Bitcoin will correct 50% from here... It's not 2015, people. We're talking about a completely different asset. Bitcoin also doesn't follow the 4-year cycle. It never has. It has always followed the business cycle, and once again it is. Like clockwork.

So Bitcoin reaches $80,000 in the week that Strategy doesn't buy any. But I was told it was only Saylor that was buying. Narrative destruction playing out before our very eyes.

Bitcoin creeping higher just waiting for Asia to arrive at their desks and take us through 80k 💪

The reason Saylor has softened his stance on “crypto” is because he realizes that one of many killer apps for $STRC is backing a yield-generating stablecoin that utterly mogs the sustainable yield offered by any stablecoin not backed by Bitcoin. He wants stables backed by $STRC running on every crypto network, accruing value to $MSTR and $BTC. Like all of us he has done the math behind the question: “what if all of that capital incinerated in cryptocasino / defi bullshit over the last decade had accrued to bitcoin instead?” And he aims to balance that equation.

@tweetsbyzyl Come on……

The only movie with Ben Affleck that I love 🤓

Bitcoin is not a "normal" asset like a stock or even a basket of stocks. It has no earnings. No cash flow. (Although you can borrow against it, turning it into an asset like we do with 2718 fund). It's also not in any way like "other cryptos". It is purely decentralized. Has no foundation or control committee. It can't be sanctioned. It's a purely mathematical form of money. It's what mathematicians would call "canonical". Statistically, is the only financial asset to form a power law. The faster you can get your brain around this, the richer you will get.

Crypto is paying a high price for years of altcoin scams and grifts. It can feel like a toxic industry where very little value is created. It's easy to feel disillusioned and wish you were focusing on AI-related trading, businesses, or working at a startup in that sector. Many companies and investment firms have already begun the rotation out of Crypto. Don't let your apathy make you unproductive; it's your personal responsibility to continue learning about the world. If you feel the call of the wild, then go. For the ones brave enough to stick around, not only will the risk-reward be as asymmetric as it's been in recent history, the concentration of upside in a handful of assets will make it EASIER to generate massive returns. There is less capital looking at Crypto exposure than ever before. This all changes with a rapid repricing in Bitcoin this year, which I believe is inevitable. For a long time in Crypto, nothing felt buyable due to an excess of capital being forced to deploy in a sector with limited opportunity. We're in a new regime now. We're reaching a similar level of apathy that I felt during 2019 and 2022. I almost quit Crypto to go back to TradFi. It's no surprise those were the years where I generated the bulk of my returns (sans Hyperliquid). Outside of trading, if you're passionate about the space, companies that are still building during this period will be positioned to take advantage of the inevitable reacceleration of this industry. Working at top-tier companies in the space is more accessible than ever due to a shortage of people entering the field. Don't undervalue your time.

@trader1sz No idea wtf this is but I love it.

God of Gamblers

This cycle specifically was designed to remove as many people as possible before the move happened. A war, a blockade, and 50 days of extreme fear. It worked on most people. Not all of them. The one's left will become unbelievably rich.

Important: Bitcoin This Bitcoin cycle is clearly unique relative to all others thus far. What we experienced from early 2023 to the end of 2025 was a pseudo/quasi bull run within a contractionary business cycle. During that run, OGs took heavy profits throughout, especially over $100k, and 4-year-cycle believers sold heavily in Q4 of 2025. Then, to make matters worse, came the Binance black swan "glitch," the Jane Street shenanigans, peak global uncertainty and fear, and so on. All things considered, Bitcoin held up remarkably well and only corrected 52% peak to trough. But now things have clearly shifted. The business cycle has now printed three months in a row over 50, showing strong signs that the expansionary cycle is coming. And Saylor is buying 10k to 30k Bitcoin weekly. All signs point to $126k not being the true bull run cycle top. In fact, it was most likely the first peak of a multi-peak bull run, and this was a healthy mid-cycle correction, not a true extended bear market. When will the second peak of this extended bull market arrive? My prediction is sometime in 2027.

Getting messages asking about thoughts on risk pull back on the Asia open Nothing changed in our mind - as we wrote in last weeks Connecting the Dots (see pinned tweet) “markets now price the path to negotiation, not escalation” We all know that path won’t be a straight one - unless you have TDS you will know the consistency with which Trump negotiates Threaten escalation when frustrated at the pace of negotiations to focus minds before reaching agreement Iran in response equally threaten to retaliate and everyone try to make public displays of strength and defiance Maybe some token shots get fired too But we remain on the volatile path to the end of this crisis and the market remains under positioned and feeling pain with the rip higher in the past couple of weeks to record highs Dips will consequently be shallow with every asset manager sat on the bid hoping for levels to get long without paying the ding Dong high Bitcoin, the best macro asset out there is, as it did last week, showing little concern outside of a cautionary pull back So BTFD - pain remains to the topside

Every day new people are discovering Bitcoin and the idea of a finite unconfiscatable money. There is no fighting this idea.

My take on the Fred Krueger "drama"... The Bitcoin Maxi space has a culture of tearing down the very people who contribute to it. I can't believe how many people are trying to crucify Fred after he's donated countless hours of his time over the years. Because of Fred's efforts through Bitcoin spaces, books, conferences, interviews, and X posts, 50,000 to 100,000 people understand Bitcoin and its mathematical growth trend in a way they otherwise wouldn't. It's not hard, people. Take what resonates and leave the rest. Is Fred a net value to the Bitcoin community? Quantifiably and objectively, yes. I don't personally care if Fred chooses to squiggle outside the Bitcoin Maxi lines sometimes on his downtime. I have gotten so much free value from Fred, and I have lost zero dollars because of Fred. Why? Because I don't gamble, I invest, and I take personal responsibility for my own actions. No one says, "I got scammed," when they lose money buying lotto tickets, betting on sports, or gambling at a casino. How is buying a memecoin any different? People need to stop trying to play judge and jury over others and take more responsibility for their own actions.

I'm beginning to think we're on the cusp of the largest BTC price squeeze of all time.