$CRV If $0.17 marked the start of the HTF impulsive uptrend, early June’s wave 1 advanced +56% to $0.2655. Wave 2 has retraced -31.68% so far, equivalent to 88% of wave 1’s length. When wave 2 retraces this deeply in an impulse, wave 3 is likely to extend. To estimate an order of magnitude for wave 3 and avoid exiting a trade too early, I apply a mathematical formula based on the Elliott Wave Principle’s equality guideline. Let’s assume wave 4 will retrace a similar percentage to wave 2. In an impulse, wave 4 is not allowed to enter the price territory of wave 1, then the goal is to find the minimum wave 3 top that prevents wave 4 from closing back into wave 1’s territory if it retraces the same percentage as wave 2’s. Formula used: Wave 3 top = wave 1 top ÷ (1 – wave 2 retracement %) With wave 1 top = $0.2655 and wave 2 retracement = 31.68%, then: Wave 3 top = $0.2655 ÷ (1 – 0.3168) = $0.3886 This means wave 3 needs to push beyond ~$0.3886 for wave 4 to be able to retrace the same percentage as wave 2 without closing back into wave 1 territory. The attached chart illustrates this relationship visually. Wave 4s in this market often retrace more than wave 2s. Therefore, $0.3886 is a conservative target for wave 3 if this is the case. If wave 4 retraces less than wave 2, then wave 3 could top out somewhat below this level, but it’s still a good estimate. Combining the above calculations with the chart context, and assuming (again) the HTF impulsive uptrend is already underway, wave 3 could top inside the $0.33–$0.45 supply zone, and wave 5 could take out the liquidity at $0.4578. #CurveFinance
