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@EyeforRetail_ Poppi goes first because one of the strategics isn't willing to wait.
Olipop team holds out and wins the valuation/exit number game.
And I think wins the volume game long term.
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Austin Gardner-Smith
6.8K posts
Austin Gardner-Smith
@gardnersmitha
Co-Founder @drivepoint_io. Tweets on eComm, DTC, profitability, data, analytics, finance. Dad to 4 humans and 2 Goldens.
Boston, MA Katılım Aralık 2008
1.8K Takip Edilen1.3K Takipçiler
Austin Gardner-Smith retweetledi
Building a 90% complete agent: x time
Building a 99% complete agent: 10x time
Building a 100% complete agent: 100x time
Does this sound right or am I doing something wrong?
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Sometimes the universe just gives you a sign that it’s gonna be a great day.
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@bhalligan @jack How many direct reports does the safety pin have?
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So @jack wants ~6,000 employees reporting directly to him in the new version of the company.
Layers between CEO and any employee in the company: ~5 today → 2-3 this year → basically zero
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I’ve never heard of this chain and I had no idea people ate bundt cakes in 2026. Which makes this kinda legendary.
JT Singh@FranchiseMnA
🚨Nothing Bundt Cakes to be acquired by global investment firm KKR for $2 billion! The chain is expected to generate EBITDA of roughly $120M this year
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Austin Gardner-Smith retweetledi
On how big the prize actually is
Bain projects cumulative AI value creation by 2030 across three layers:
Hardware: $5.8 trillion
AI Infrastructure: $5.2 trillion
AI-enabled Software: $6.0 trillion
Software takes the largest share. Again.
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This is a very important document. I think we will use this moment to mark a cyclical bottom in software valuations
The Icahnist@TheIcahnist
BREAKING: Thoma Bravo just released their LP meeting slides. The world's largest software PE firm thinks the market has it completely wrong on software right now. Public markets are panic-selling software based on AI fear. Here's what they're seeing:
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The fact that I can’t run Claude Claude locally on my phone and just control all my apps by talking via my AirPods infuriating
Please tell me you’ve solved it
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Have really enjoyed the pod. I think it’s totally OK to have the folks on who are on the pod. But I think you can go even more weird with them.
Very specific examples of hairy situations or challenges, particularly around big strategic calls or people stuff, are so so useful. They can be old/outdated to not force them to disclose current challenges, these experiences are kinda evergreen.
But there is really no repository/library of case studies on these things that exists today and it’s very valuable from my POV as someone in the seat.
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Dear listeners of my Long Strange Trip pod,
Sometimes I have folks on that doing the pod circuit. Should I (1) assume my ceo deep dive is unique and not worry about it OR (2) not spend time filming folks on the circuit as it’s too repetitive?
Bh.
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Is your sales org “friction with a friendly face?”
Sobering take: open.substack.com/pub/citrini/p/…
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The trust paradox of AI in finance explained really succinctly:
“Finance is the sector where being right is worth the most money. The marginal value of an accurate answer in an M&A process or in a distressed debt situation, is enormous. The cost of an inaccurate answer is also enormous. There is no other professional domain where the reward for getting things exactly right, and the penalty for getting things almost right but slightly wrong, is so consistently, measurably high.
And that means that finance will consume AI capabilities faster than any other vertical. Not because finance professionals are early adopters or technology enthusiasts, but because the economics of precision are simply so extreme. When the expected value of a correct answer is ten million dollars and the expected cost of a wrong answer is also ten million dollars, financial institutions will pay almost anything for a system that they can actually trust.”
George Sivulka@gsivulka
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Austin Gardner-Smith retweetledi
The Campbell's Company agreed to acquire a 49% interest in La Regina, the privately held maker of Rao’s tomato-based pasta sauces.
The company will pay $286M in two tranches for its stake.
Based in Scafati, Italy, La Regina was founded in 1972 and has been a Rao’s partner since 1993.
The acquisition solidifies Campbell’s long-term strategic partnership with La Regina and is expected to fuel Rao’s continued growth.
Campbell's originally acquired Sovos Brands, the parent company of Rao's, in 2023 for $2.7B.
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There is some baseline of “MVD” …minimal viable distribution required to even have a shot at maximizing velocity. But usually 1-2 major accounts or 3-4 regional accounts is good enough to start focusing on velocity. You probably have a take here but I’d guess MVD in most cases is somewhere ~500 doors.
I’d also point out that the earliest velocity gains can come from non-promo stuff…namely field operations, void reporting etc. When I visit stores there is so much low hanging fruit for newer entrants…product not on shelf, not merched well, packaging blindly cloned from DTC etc.
A huge benefit of focusing on velocity after MVD is building the operational muscle to win in retail. Just spending more on trade won’t fix bad shelf presence and can lead to a death spiral
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For CPG brands, VELOCITY > DISTRIBUTION, yet so many brands prioritize the opposite.
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@codyplof Skio/Stay - not doing DTC without sub
Quickbooks - the only ERP you really need
Drivepoint - the map and the compass in one kit
See you at the IPO
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Ok next question. You’re starting a DTC brand. You get 3 softwares outside of Shopify, Klaviyo, and PostScript.
Which 3 are you picking?
Cody Plofker@codyplof
You are Director of Growth. You get 3 roles. What are the first 3 hires for your DTC brand? Mine are: - Influencer Director/ Manager - Creator/ Producer - Edition/ Designer hybrid Debate
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Austin Gardner-Smith retweetledi
Distribution Snapshot 👇
- Magic Mind rolled out at Target
- Sunny added Sprouts
- TRIP launched at HEB
- Levels launched at HEB
- Supergut went nationwide at Walmart
- Koia Kids launched at Costco Canada
- Daily Crunch launched at Albertsons
- JAMBAR launched at Jewel-Osco
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Yes BUT…it’s so easy to underestimate the power of staying focused and driving velocity in your first product.
From an EV standpoint, there better be a LOT of volume in that second product to justify the startup costs, redistribution effort etc.
A lot of founders will use this blended margin argument to justify new products when really, they’re mostly just bored…
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In CPG, unit economics will kill many of your best ideas.
Because if the math ain’t mathin, you should never begin.
With one exception:
Let’s say you have a 1st successful product already. With strong margins.
Now you create a 2nd, more incredible product that would be great for the brand, but it falls slightly below your desired margin threshold.
Your math could involve a blended margin across the portfolio to justify the new product, especially if that new product delivers strategic benefit to your business – e.g. attracting additional consumers, is more defensible, opens new channels.
Now if the following 3rd new product in your pipeline has very strong margins, your math gets even more compelling.
Rules are there for a reason, but they should also be questioned and challenged.
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Austin Gardner-Smith retweetledi
Not getting enough attention:
tobi lutke@tobi
You can now build Shopify stores with AI in Lovable
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@willnitze What’s the secret to doing it well? Is there a texh solve in your opinion or is the challenge on the comms/people side?
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Demand planning is the hardest part of CPG once you've scaled up (assuming you're omni-channel).
I spend probably half of every day working through demand planning challenges.
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