GaUrI

@breezyjpg @Polymarket @PolymarketSport @PolymarketTrade Waiting til Jun 10, 2026 to get 0.1%?

If you saw $100 on the ground would you pick it up?

@AndresGiordanoS La vulnerabilidad de chile viene dada por el alto % de la deuda externa (deuda emitida en usd o euros) en relacion al total de la deuda.

Juan Pablo, un poco de honestidad no vendría mal. El Gobierno de Boric heredó de Piñera: Inflación de ~9,4 % hoy en 2,4%. Déficit 7,6 % del PIB, hoy en 3,55% FEES US$ 2.457 millones, hoy US$ 3.912 millones Activos del Tesoro, US$ 14.900M, hoy en 16.900M. Con todo eso, se ocupó MEPCO con barriles más caros que hoy. Por cierto, una deuda de las menores en países de la OCDE. Si quieren achicar el Estado y reducirle los impuestos a los más ricos a toda costa, díganlo. Pero no más mentiras, Sr. Swett.

@AbrigoCD Avisenle a este iluminado que el rating crediticio es condicional al nivel de deuda. Sobre el 55% y con el % de deuda externa que tiene chile, pierdes el grado de inversion, capo.

La deuda de Chile es de 45% del PIB app. El promedio OCDE es cerca de 85%. Lo que se considera "aceptable" ronda el 100-110%. La calificación que nos dan las evaluadoras de riesgo a nivel mundial es de A/A+. Significa que el país es capaz de tomar deuda. No quisieron.

@orrdavid Long dubai real estate. Long CLP

Besides short oil, what's another way to bet on the Iranian war ending with a great result within 3 weeks? Something obvious, not convoluted. Also, anything with options?

@upfrontmma @netflix @PlatinumPerry @MightyMouse @ufc @muhammadmokaev @NateDiaz209 bs

🚨 BREAKING FIGHT NEWS: Muhammad Mokaev vs Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson JUST ADDED to the Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano @netflix card along with Nate Diaz vs Mike Perry!! @PlatinumPerry @MightyMouse The @ufc is cooked?

Polymarket shares aren’t pure probabilities; they’re zero-coupon binary bonds maturing when the market resolves. A distant “Yes” price therefore embeds both the crowd’s true odds and the yield you forfeit by locking capital until then. That time drag is why even near-certain events trade well below fair value when resolution is far away.

Free money glitch on Polymarket

@AahanPrometheus What is the average level of vix when it trades in backwardation?

SYSTEMATIC TRADE IDEA 🤖 On Friday (on stack), I shared how some long VIX could be helpful as an equity hedge. In addition to that, energy looks good (duh). But the *main* factor to focus on right now is that energy and VIX are both positive carry. This is a big opportunity to diversify equity and bond exposure. As ever, we ran this systematically. Clear uplift to 60/40 investing. The rules are simple. 1. Benchmark: 60/40 2. Risk-Parity: 60/40 doesn't make sense. We use risk parity to bring the portfolio into balance, but keep a 60/40 risk split. We just want more equity risk, because that's popular. 3. VIX + Energy Overlay: If energy or VIX curves are in backwardation, go long energy or VIX futures. Target 15% constant vol for each position. 60/40 risk split of VIX/CL Futures 4. Portfolio: 50:50, Risk-Parity: VIX + Energy Result: 1.5x the risk-adjusted return of vanilla 60/40 with much lower drawdowns. This IS NOT a strategy in and of itself- but a base framework for a trade/ how to think about exposures in this environment.

@JulianKlymochko I think the main concern is how trash recoveries are this time.

The thing is, the current secondary market prices of liquid private credit vehicles (BDCs) are implying a default rate north of 20%, far in excess of anything experienced during the GFC and greater than UBS’s draconian “worst case” scenario

@zivdotcat Bloomberg makes ~$12–15B/yr because of proprietary real-time data feeds, not the black screen with charts.

Bloomberg makes ~$15B a year, ~$12B from the terminal. Bloomberg charges $30000/yr per user for terminal access. Perplexity Computer literally one-shotted the terminal with real-time data within minutes using a single prompt.

@markgadala Do you have a bloomberg terminal? It is 100% the data.

A Bloomberg Terminal costs $24,000 a year. Someone just recreated one using Perplexity Computer for $200 a month. Bloomberg's moat was never the data, that's increasingly commoditized. It was the interface: thousands of keyboard shortcuts, proprietary screens, and muscle memory that finance professionals spent years learning. The switching cost wasn't price, it was retraining. AI agents collapse that moat. If Computer can replicate the interface and pull equivalent data from public sources, the only remaining lock-in is the chat network and real-time feeds. One is a social product. The other is a licensing negotiation. Bloomberg did $12.6 billion in revenue last year selling terminals. The first credible open-source alternative just got built in an afternoon.

@CarOnPolymarket Is it possible that this large bet was placed by Polymarket itself (or someone related) to lure more bettors into the market, provide low-cost funding for operations, and/or earn a cut/rebate/revenue share from Circle on yield from the locked USDC?

Someone spent $50K on "Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?" If he is right he will win $1,400,000. What does he know? His profile: polymarket.com/0x44c1dfe43260…

@CarOnPolymarket @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney Who is copy trading who, then?

@gchuber88 @PolymarketTrade @PolymarketMoney the copy traders front run him, taking away his liquidity

Suffering from success. A trader found a strategy correctly predicting the price of eggs every single month. He has made $97,000 so far. However, he became so successful that he had to stop trading these markets because too many copy traders started copying him, reducing his profits.

@thepowerfulHRV MSTR common shareholders are paying the bill

Few understand what is happening

@saylor Now MSTR is digital CREDIT?

The winners are Digital Intelligence $NVDA, Digital Credit $MSTR, and Digital Capital $BTC.

@GiacoDiego @Miguel_Boggiano y cual es el contrafactual? Cómo sería la inflación de no tener un ancla fiscal y un dolar estable?

El proceso desinflacionario sigue su marcha según @Miguel_Boggiano, pero hace 8 meses que la estimación de la inflación INDEC, que la subestima, no para de subir mes tras mes. Es es la foto, esta es la película. Miguel está diciendo cualquier cosa. Lo que suceda a futuro se verá.

@marcopabst Now do the JGB portfolio.

❤️ I love central banks I have long been an admirer of how central banks have evolved over time in their role to now create backstops for the economy and implement monetary policy in more and more creative ways. They deserve some praise for that, in my opinion. What is even more fascinating is how some of them went beyond the call of duty and managed to create wealth out of nothing. Ignore pure QE/QT and other conventional tools for a moment. When you take it one step further you get to the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Both are running their own humongous investment portfolios with money that was created on an Excel sheet. And both are generating substantial profits from investing these funds in equities and bonds. The SNB runs around CHF760bn which is not far off Switzerland's ~$1trn GDP. Think about it! There is a portfolio manager that invested the equivalent of your country's GDP in US tech stocks! Hedge funds come to mind. I know it is not quite that but 25% of Switzerland's foreign currency portfolio is indeed invested in global stocks, i.e. 20% of Swiss GDP. 👉 Japan is even better at that: According to a fascinating new article in FT Alphaville, the BoJ's QQE programme (Quantitative and Qualitative Easing) has spent almost JPY40trn on hoovering up equity ETFs in the country since 2010 and, thanks to a booming stock market, is now sitting on a portfolio that has more than doubled. 👉 Picture this: The profit on the BoJ's equity book is now the equivalent of 11% of Japanese GDP! 👉 This is part of the reason why I believe that all that doom & gloom talk about perceived high debt-to-GDP levels in Japan misses the point, ignoring the total balance sheet of the country. Obviously, as impressive as these gains are, I am still wondering how balance sheets of this size can ever be crystallised. They are probably not meant to and will more likely morph into some kind of sovereign wealth fund - investing money that didn't exist before. 👀 Certainly no investment advice, unless you are a central bank!

@junkbondinvest Masterclass

Lot of questions about BDCs lately. Wrote a primer. What they are. How the fees work. Why the liability side can blow up faster than the asset side. Check out Part 1 here (link below):

@koozy_pm @tsybka @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade Maybe those are polymarket related accounts. Basically they get close to free funding by taking this action.

@tsybka @Polymarket @PolymarketTrade do you have a reasonable explanation why anyone would (without trolling) buy Yes shares in that market?

There is so much liquidity in the “Jesus Christ return” market that right now you can place $120k and by the end of the year get $5k with zero risk. It’s like taking your stash to a bank and forgetting about it until EOY. Polymarket is a place where free money is literally on every corner.

@thepowerfulHRV at this point, you are embarrasing yourself.

$MSTR mNAV 1.08x through all of the noise. The company remains in strong position to BUY MORE BTC.