London dad

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London dad

London dad

@ghose77

Dad. Husband. Reading. Learning. Writing.

London, England Katılım Ekim 2020
729 Takip Edilen1.2K Takipçiler
Fund_GM
Fund_GM@Fund_CDM·
Some people seem unsettled that a Substack like Citrini can move stocks. For years, markets reacted to “Goldman upgrades” and "Morgan Stanley downgrades" as if the institution had spoken. In reality, it was often just Mike, 32, Drexel grad, updating a model and sending a note. The logo made it feel institutional. Big banks were the newspapers of finance. They controlled research distribution the way legacy media controlled journalism. Now it feels like podcasts versus traditional TV and radio. Different channel but the same mechanism and maybe HR at the banks weren't the best at identifying the best potential analysts. Joe Rogans of finance will emerge from Substack.
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@alexandrascaggs @alexandrascaggs congrats! What about…”it’s 2028 and Arnie the Terminator has returned to hunt a rogue AI agent, former high paid SaaS execs are using Klarna to buy Taco Bell’s…” 😂
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@Victoria_Spratt Why do you think high end suburb houses in places like Wimbledon are holding at record levels? Thanks
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Vicky Spratt
Vicky Spratt@Victoria_Spratt·
It’s quite amazing that, even though this was obviously happening, it has largely been ignored by estate agents and government Another reason why a return to any sort of government demand-side support for housing would be v risky
Henry Pryor@HenryPryor

House prices always go up, right? Some people are just cottoning on to the fact that prices for many homes (especially flats) in the Capital are back where they were in 2013. Factor in inflation and they're even lower!

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Joe Weisenthal
Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart·
The primary reason why the tech boom is a contributor to financial measures of inequality is because these companies reach extraordinary valuations with relatively few workers, and the few workers are extremely well paid. The public/private distinction is a sideshow IMO.
Vlad Tenev@vladtenev

Thanks for the thought-provoking piece. My main critique is that you are overemphasizing flashy but low probability events like “left-handed bacteria,” while merely giving lip service to the risk of extreme economic concentration of power, which is very real and materializing as we speak. Anthropic is reportedly raising funds at a $350B valuation, and the wealth created thus far has been concentrated into a few hundred (perhaps more like dozens) high net worth individuals / institutions. It’s looking increasingly likely to me that none of the leading AI labs will IPO until they reach valuations in the trillions, at which point retail investors will finally be able to get shares. In order for retail to get a 100x return on these investments, which was achievable for Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google, the valuations of the AI labs will need to reach hundreds of trillions of dollars, meaning it’s likely too late for a more equitable redistribution of wealth. Simply put, you are currently exacerbating the problem. The consequences of this are that voters may take matters into their own hands and push for either or both 1) more aggressive / nonsensical forms of redistribution — the CA Founders’ Tax is just the beginning or 2) a drastic knee-capping of the AI industry in America, which make the CCP dominance scenario more likely. The solution is to enable retail ownership now, increasing the number of Americans with economic exposure to Anthropic and other AI labs from hundreds of people to millions.

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Norma Cohen
Norma Cohen@NormaCohen3·
LBC are leading the way in highlighting the abuse of occupiers that current leasehold law permits. @HarryScoffin tells LBC that Labour’s failure to block Ground Rents amounts to acquiescence in the financialisation of housing.
Free Leaseholders@FreeLeasehlders

“Own nothing and be happy” has quietly become the dividing line in Western politics. By backing ground-rent grifters over ordinary leaseholders, Keir Starmer has chosen the wrong side of it. Our interview with @LBC’s Matthew Wright coming soon.

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Mark Wharrier
Mark Wharrier@mark_wharrier·
@RNBlake Process, consultation, impact assessment, lobbying, HM Treasury, legal challenges….. Sums up this government. Why not just make the change happen that you promised. 170 majority, no excuses.
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Rachel Blake
Rachel Blake@RNBlake·
We are starting the year where we left off by bringing together MPs, managing agents and insurance companies to a roundtable discussion exploring ways to reform the leasehold system so residents are protected and secure.
Rachel Blake tweet media
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London dad retweetledi
Harry Scoffin
Harry Scoffin@HarryScoffin·
What’s going on with @Keir_Starmer?! In November 2024, @mtpennycook, presumably with Number 10 backing, promised a Draft Leasehold and Commonhold Reform Bill would drop in the second half of 2025. It never happened, after a last-minute lobbying push by Big Freehold.
Free Leaseholders@FreeLeasehlders

Painful from @Keir_Starmer at PMQs. @RuthCadbury asks when the Leasehold and Commonhold Reform Bill will arrive … and he dodges with rental reform! Notice how the PM cannot bring himself to say his government will end leasehold, even though the @UKLabour manifesto promises it.

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Iain Dunning
Iain Dunning@iaindunning·
Sunday math... CitSec took $1.1B from Sequoia et al in Jan 2022, valuation $22B. Millennium recently valued at $14B after selling 15%. I think $VIRT market cap ($5B) is 2-3x trading revenue. JS did about 7B in Q3. So if a three-letter secretive AI lab raised $2B at $32B... 🤷‍♂️
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@tomhfh I use Kensington library and it is a beautiful building. Context
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Tom Harwood
Tom Harwood@tomhfh·
How did we get to today's Kensington and Chelsea town hall (left)... ...from Kensington town hall (right, black and white) and Chelsea town hall (right, colour)? Decline.
Tom Harwood tweet mediaTom Harwood tweet mediaTom Harwood tweet media
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@MichaelAArouet What wealth tax? Haven’t seen one. They keep hitting the middle class! I would also prefer to a Dubai estate agent of last 5 years vs next 5. Dubai can be cyclical. The young estate agents moving to Dubai now have missed the fun
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Michael A. Arouet
Michael A. Arouet@MichaelAArouet·
Dubai real estate agents after the UK and France introduce a wealth tax
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
I saw that post and was a little puzzled as I thought London pays more tax than is spent on it ie it was a net contributor to the country? Central govt sure can be blamed for lack of vision with building new industries in the north but I think we overemphasize how rich and powerful London is. It is not richer than Paris and the US has a dozen cities like London. Shifting Parliament to another city is a good idea in my view but as for taking resources away from London we are already see money flow out to Dubai
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Nick, 30
Nick, 30@an0n_Nic·
There has certainly been a disproportionate amount of investment in to London, but I disagree with this take. The problem here is that the mentality in the UK is not “let’s build several Londons, with the infrastructure and investment” but has been complacent that London takes the lions share and shouldn’t receive the investment. Grow the pie, not the slices.
Peter Hague@peterrhague

To help Americans understand the UK situation: In GDP/capita terms, London is comparable to New York. England outside of London is comparable to Puerto Rico (really). The entire country shares roughly the same minimum wage as California. This is a result of policy. For decades successive governments have aggressively prioritised the capital over everywhere else in the country - in terms of infrastructure spending most notably, but also in industrial planning and monetary policy. Londoners see themselves as the nations economic engine, graciously giving charity to poor useless northerners - but this is not at all an accurate picture. England is intentionally kept down in order to maintain London's status as a world city during a period of decline. You can see it in infrastructure - roads outside the capital are left to decay, trains and busses are infrequent and unreliable. The grooming gang scandal was ignored in part because it occurred in post industrial towns in Yorkshire and the West Midlands, places the government could not give less of a crap about. A lot of the political turmoil of late can be understood as an English nationalism in reaction to this mistreatment, and the authoritarianism of the government as the metropole attempting to reassert control.

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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
It would be good if someone with your profile and distribution to chat to my friend @HarryScoffin on leasehold. Not only does it disproportionally impact the young and poor in cities there is a huge amount of fraud in addition to inflation. Renters this service charge indirectly. Freehold flats can have service charges half of what leaseholds ones do
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Tom Harwood
Tom Harwood@tomhfh·
When house price falls aren't actually house price falls. While London leasehold flat prices are falling, semi-detached house prices are actually *rising*. We can deduce therefore that the price changes therefore aren't about supply, but other factors. Like service charge risk.
Tom Harwood tweet media
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@_emrul Indeed. You are 100% right. Would flag there is two track at moment - affluent London suburbs are at record levels but inner London gutted
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Silenced by Tw**ter
Silenced by Tw**ter@_emrul·
To be fair, prices were detaching from reality for a while. When we had the post-Brexit financial exodus from the City of London the writing was on the wall. Now we're going to see over-leveraged landlords forced to sell, homeowners that overpaid try to stay put and suddenly everyone will want to rent rather than own in a down market.
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@LizzieCernik @rainbowland1979 No service charge? So no common areas but there is freeholder? £150k I assume includes stamp duty. I live in Earls Court and the whole of West central London has got smoked
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@LizzieCernik @rainbowland1979 Houses have gone down as well apart from suburbs. But the difference in decline in flat prices between freehold and leasehold without RTM is huge. I know as I own both. It’s reflective of control over service charges.
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London dad
London dad@ghose77·
@rainbowland1979 As a Londoner I am biased but people think this is London so who cares but all cities across the country
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