Giuliano Bologna

@AverageDipBuyer youtube.com/live/PiN4EUUKX… Don’t listen to the pumpers. Listen to some rational analysts discussing the company @ramahluwalia @giulianoab

We are live! You don't want to miss this. I will be the $SOFI bull today. @DataDInvesting, welcome to join in - DM me, and my team will send the guest link.

Great job guys! Appreciate great analysis

Thanks to Giuliano for his lengthy email this morning responding to my quick take on his analysis. He's a true professional, and I have a lot of respect for his analytical chops. I need to point out a correction that I needed to make. I had said: "...he assumes a weighted average duration of SoFi's fair value loan book of ~6-8 months..." I corrected that statement to the following: "...he assumes a weighted average seasoning of SoFi's fair value loan book of ~6-8 months..." His email helped me see more clearly the areas where he and I disagree, and frankly it's not a "he's wrong, and I'm right," situation. It's more around the specificity and confidence that you can draw given the massive informational asymmetry that exists in our line of work.

Banner day for earnings guidance. SOFI just makes up its definition of GAAP and then can't foot it. Nice work, boners.

$SOFI not to be an alarmist or anything but...

"Mr. Cooper Group Inc. $COOP - Buy: Solid 4Q23 - 14%-18% FY24/FY25 ROTCE Range Implies EPS Upside Above Consensus" #CompassPoint

@KyleWhiteGOAT Francis Ford Coppola (Hofstra Alum) might like a few words with Mr. White Goat- maybe he will bring Luca Brasi with him- You might not like his analysis and your free to piss on it if you want but no need for the ethnic slants- be better

The FT weighs in on SoFi's opaque accounting practices "The dark art of bank fair-value accounting needs more transparency, SoFi's Choice" Excerpts: "It can be argued that some of the assumptions SoFi is using are aggressive, especially relative to the few other lenders using this method." > I would say so... Look at how SoFi increased the value of their loan book in Q3 while credit spreads widened during the quarter. "At the very least, banks should be required to report the difference between CECL and fair value treatment in their financial and regulatory reports, so the differences are clear to the markets and regulators." > Absolutely. You can't allow banks to game the system. "...only six us banks had non-mortgage consumer loans (personal, student, etc), measured at fair value, with SoFi’s loans making up more than 95% of the total. And only SOFI’s loans were booked at a large premium to their unpaid balance, resulting in higher loan revenue." According to Bologna, if SoFi had elected to account for loans at amortised cost and had to take CECL reserves similar to peers, its tangible book value per share reported for the third quarter of 2023 would fall from $3.42 to $2.00 and its CET1 ratio would be cut from 14.3 per cent to 8.9 per cent. > SoFi needs to raise more capital and slow origination growth. If they do that OR if delinquencies increase (take a look at Discover...), then SoFi's earnings will take a major hit. @TBakerBroadmoor @Seawolfcap @BankingIp @giulianoab @khaslett

ft.com/content/7df3cb… I agree with the author, but no transparency exists for a reason. Much like not disclosing credit metrics on a bank's earnings releases.

The dark art of bank fair-value accounting needs more transparency on.ft.com/3vOiAUe

I thought my ethically-challenged colleague @BobMenendezNJ could use some encouragement given his substantial legal problems. So, I approached a seasoned expert on the matter to give ‘Bobby from Jersey’ some advice.

@HaveIShocked @DataDInvesting I think it’s fair to give @DataDInvesting time to analyze the information. I assume if the company provided numbers are what they look like, he will respond accordingly. Hat tip to @giulianoab , analyst at Compass for his timely 10-Q review note.

Best piece of Research his am.. Cross River is problematic for many including $Upst ⁦@Seawolfcap⁩

I have an idea… we should allow a group of unelected academics control the economic fate of our country. We will give them carte blanche and there will be zero ramifications to any of them if things go to shit..

Yesterday was a watershed. The key with Target and Walmart is that consumer spending shift – trading down always comes first, then the actual budget downsizing. Recession is this year's story; next year will be the rebirth. Raise cash now & put it to work later.

Podcast #87 is up! Jacob Rubin returns to the podcast to discuss why he thinks $FTAI is undervalued and how an upcoming split could be a big catalyst. yetanothervaluepodcast.substack.com/p/podcast-87-j…

🔊 Police seize $60 million of bitcoin. Now, where's the password? reut.rs/3riGIa6

FHFA Addresses Servicer Liquidity Concerns, Announces Four Month Advance Obligation Limit for Loans in Forbearance ow.ly/lc7750zkat8