Capital Flows
53.2K posts
@Globalflows
Christian | Mapping the macro regime across rates, FX & equities to find home run trades | Streaming live every weekday at 8:30am MST | Free daily reports ⬇️
I want to explain the most misunderstood factor for Hyperliquid. If what I lay out is going to happen, the price will easily go to $350 this year. 🧵 Right now, everyone is overly fixated on the launch of the ETFs. The Hyperliquid ETFs are a drop in the bucket for the wall of capital that is going to hit the market This is very straightforward if you understand global interest rates, fx, and the supply of money in the system. Most people have ZERO clue about how these markets function because they have never traded G7 rates. People think they understand liquidity because they traded Bitcoin during a dollar devaluation narrative but when asked about the most important input into macro liquidity, interest rates, they have no clue. It is IMPOSSIBLE to have a view on macro liquidity and money in the system without understanding interest rates. These are two sides to the same coin. Let me lay out this thesis very simply: 👇 Interest rates are all about the price you pay for money in the system. FX markets are the flip side of the coin, which is denominated the actual currency you are borrowing relative to other currencies and their respective interest rates. Why does this matter for Hyperliquid? Because the largest markets in the world are all about interest rates and FX. Bitcoin and crypto are a drop in the bucket for large players who are managing massive balance sheets. If Hyperliquid can provide enough value via liquidity and low-cost leverage, then the largest players in the world will start moving more capital onto the platform to transact in the most important markets, interest rates, and FX. Simply put, if you have enough liquidity on your platform, the price you pay for leverage can be LOWER than what you might pay somewhere else. Simple example: If you need a mortgage for your house, you are going to try to get the best rate possible. This is you trying to find the "cheapest leverage" possible in the system. If someone offers you a lower interest rate, with no trade offs, people will take it. Many brokerage accounts compete with each other on the margin rates you have to pay in order to use the firms margin. The same dynamic is true for Hyperliquid. If they can provide attractive margin rates (or what we can funding rates on Hyperliquid), then this is the real value proposition for Hyperliquid. While everyone is focused on ETF flows, you want to ask what are the drivers of value that would catalyze the flows of the largest players to begin using Hyperliquid every single day. Clearly, the regulatory constraint is holding capital back like a dam holding back water that wants to pour into a new market. But the most important thing to understand is that if the funding rates for interest rates and FX are low enough on Hyperliquid, this begins to attract capital from the largest players in the world. This especially attracts capital from the entire Eurodollar market that is constantly trying to hedge the surplus of dollar liquidity that is in the system due to the dollars reserve currency status and the historic level of trade the US has conducted which has pushed an unprecedented level of dollars through the entire system. This flow mechanism connected to the larger macro picture is WHY I am so bullish on Hyperliquid. Notice that functionally, no one else has talked about this. They think this is just the regular "crypto cycle" where you buy momentum and fade the price once everyone starts talking about it on the timeline. The place we are at with Hyperliquid is actually taking advantage of the biggest blind spots for both people in crypto and people in traditional markets. Crypto people have been conditioned to just think in terms of pump and dumps instead of value creation and flow mechanics in the global interest rate complex. Traditional finance people have functionally dismissed crypto as something that is worthless because no one has really provided true value that has lasted. This is why I wrote this article on the blindspot that existed earlier this year, before Hyperliquid made its massive YTD rally: x.com/Globalflows/st… There is a reason that no one is talking about these mechanics. The crypto influencers or VC establishments won't talk about it because they didnt get to invest in Hyperliquid before it launched or get a crypto allocation to schill. On the flip side, the largest institutions won't talk about Hyperliquid because they dont want to draw attention to a market that they havent established a dominant positioning in yet. "Do you mean to tell me you've finally established a position, so you can price mine?" - The Big Short My job is a trader. I get paid to hold risk and I have established a position in $PURR which is the largest Hyperliquid treasury company and the only treasury company in the world with a positive P&L right now. It is up over 140% since I originally published the view (see my pinned tweet). But we have only just begun to price what is possible for Hyperliquid and what is possible for $PURR. Once you realize that Hyperliquid sits in a massive gap in the tradfi and crypto space, then you will realize why $PURR sits as the bridge to BOTH of these. I continue to hold my $PURR position and it is my strong conviction that Hyperliquid will have a significant rally beyond anyone's expectations and $PURR will be the direct beneficiary of this in addition to adding additional shareholder value on top of HYPE returns. There are several things that you need to know in order to navigate these changes in Hyperliquid: 1) Understand that we are in a credit cycle melt up that in its very nature is currently sowing the seeds of its own demise. None of this will end well given the amount of liquidity that is in the system but first we are melting up MUCH MUCH HIGHER. 2) Hyperliquid underlying drivers in its value proposition that could catalyze capital aggressively moving onto the platform to access cheap leverage. 3) All of the signals for positioning in global risk assets, interest rates, Hyperliquid, and $PURR. I will be providing an entire playbook for #1-3 in a livestream tomorrow at 8:30am MST. You will walk away with a playbook for the credit cycle, a model with the code included on mapping funding rates on Hyperliquid, and Tradingview models for monitoring the positioning signals. This will be 100% free for everyone who is a subscriber here. I will send out the links tonight and resend them tomorrow morning so no one misses it: capitalflowsresearch.com/subscribe Below, I will link the most important tweets and videos I have done thus far that you should review before the livestream tomorrow Welcome to global macro HYPERLIQUID
Livestream with @Tyler_Neville_ and @jaymesrosenthal tomorrow morning I’m excited for this one I’ll link it below
I’m super excited to share that we have signed a contract with @SpaceX @Starlink to integrate its mini laser terminals onto our satellites for high bandwidth, low latency connectivity!
