@HFI_Research Interesting times - any obvious reason why crack spreads are so crazy high and seem unbothered by any moving force in the universe? I can't figure this out.
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SPC
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Final crude estimate for May 1 week.
SPR release is 5.2 million bbls.
Total crude draw including SPR is 10.7 million bbls.
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@ThePowerAudit @A_M_R_M1 this is from 2 weeks ago, tanker in the gulf near Iraq
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@A_M_R_M1 Sunrise today at Sharjah was 05:30
The attacks occurred after 06:30 local time. This is not from today
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🚨Footage of a fire that broke out on an Emirati oil tanker near the city of Sharjah.
▪︎Source: Iranian Tasnim News Agency
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never seen this valuation methodology work
i.e. "shares are trading at ~1x 2035 EPS"
what does that even mean. its like a puzzle where 7 out out of the 10 pieces are missing
Gregory Blotnick@gregoryblotnick
things that are supposed to "work" in investing/trading but actually have a 0% success rate -sotp -buybacks -"paying a dividend will create/expand into a new yield-oriented shareholder base" -"how did IR sound" "how did the CFO sound" etc -RSI -mean-reversion of any valuation metric or multiple -debt to GDP, entitlement spending, other doomer pitches that end with "and then the 30-year goes to 12%" -"wait until the market realizes that the depreciable life of their office kitchen microwave is 5 years and not 6" -NAV discount -M&A synergies -ERP implementations (unless ur short) -if 2nd best player with 30% margins can get to 1st's 40% margins...catch up trade --> 50% upside. then you learn its structural -any/all intraday trading color esp on progress of any "big client" order - if an elephant doesnt want to leave a trail, there's infinite ways to do so thru swaps/derivatives/etc. same for all "unusual options flow," if they dont want to be seen, u aint gonna see em -"an activist could get involved here" -"email the ceo and tell him and other insiders to buy some stock" -"the AI overhang will lift as long as the quarter is okay" -short squeezes -lock-up expiration -analyst day trade / conference day trade / investor day -"I could see PE getting interested here around 5x EBITDA" -variant view on FX for the qtr -shorting Deere
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@sentdefender @flightradar24 @grok eli5 why would military aircraft operate with transponder/ADB on, either for routine logistics or targeted logistics behind an operation, knowingly this could provide advantage
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Compare at least 13 U.S. Air Force tankers active currently with activity over the same region from 24 hours ago (left) and 7 days ago (right), via @flightradar24.
OSINTdefender@sentdefender
Following several incidents in the region today, including Iran firing "warning shots" at U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, attacking a South Korean merchant vessel with unknown projectiles, and several drones and missiles fired at the United Arab Emirates (UAE), U.S. Air Force activity in the region has visibly increased with 9 KC-135 "Stratotankers" and 4 KC-46A "Pegasus" aerial refueling aircraft active via @flightradar24.
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@CRUDEOIL231 @BarakRavid SOURCES CLOSE TO AXIOS REPORTS THAT IRANIAN ‘PEACE ROCKETS’ WERE LAUNCHED AT THE UAE AS A WAY TO CELEBRATE THE END OF THE WAR. PAKISTANI OFFICIALS CONFIRM THAT THE AERIAL DISPLAY OF LOVE WAS WELL RECEIVED BY EVERYONE AND THE STRAIT IS OPEN.
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Hey @BarakRavid , what happened to that deal you were blabbering about on Friday?
Why don't you tell us about that? You were acting like peace was just around the corner on Friday.
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@CRUDEOIL231 When is Axios Inverse ETF launching? Who is building this?
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Barak Ravid: A total loser who pumps out fake news to aid insider trading and government propaganda, all while dodging legal accountability and lacking the balls to face criticism.
A complete piece of trash. This time is no different. He’s been blabbering about peace since Friday, but in reality, Iranian missiles are raining down on Fujairah.
Aren't you ashamed of yourself in front of your own children?
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We can't wait to make our case in court where both the truth and the law are on our side. This lawsuit has always been a baseless and jealous bid to derail a competitor. We'll also finally have the chance to question Mr. Musk under oath before a jury of Californians about this attempt to undermine our work to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity.
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@adamscochran Agree that markets likely have been pushed around in non-legitimate activity
However it's part of the game, macro asset prices are another element of the waf (similar to closing the Strait to gain leverage - this is a countermeasure to that).
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We know that the Treasury has been suppressing cash settled oil futures on behalf of the administration.
But think when we finally audit this corrupt administration we’ll also find they were bolstering the S&P 500 futures as well.
During the past two weeks, we’ve had aggressive nightly TWAP buying during closed market hours, repeatedly shifting prices up 0.2% plus, reversing every sell off and obeying every EMA line.
Remarkably odd behavior, and it always perfect front runs the next Barak Ravid headline, and leads with futures with spot chasing.
The administration has risked billions in tax payer money to fraudulently paint the tape, in violation of its own CFTC regulations.
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As a game theory question, it’s boring and easy. As a political question, it’s fascinating and reveals a great deal about why democracies struggle.
Superficially, blue looks like the collectivist, selfless, moral answer. And as you’d expect, plenty of people not only assumed that to be true, but moralized aggressively at those who understand that’s not factually true.
Anyone who picks red is guaranteed to live, including if everyone does it. It’s objectively the better and more moral choice for most and to recommend to others. Blue is a kind of stochastic suicide button.
Tim Urban@waitbutwhy
Everyone in the world has to take a private vote by pressing a red or blue button. If more than 50% of people press the blue button, everyone survives. If less than 50% of people press the blue button, only people who pressed the red button survive. Which button would you press?
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@SecScottBessent @LiveSquawk @USTreasury Could even write off the US debt backing those stables. No wonder it's called the Genius act
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Under Economic Fury, @USTreasury will continue to systematically degrade Tehran’s ability to generate, move, and repatriate funds.
Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control is sanctioning multiple wallets tied to Iran — resulting in the freeze of $344 million in cryptocurrency.
We will follow the money that Tehran is desperately attempting to move outside of the country and target all financial lifelines tied to the regime.
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Oil isnt an important part of the economy anymore... many are saying.
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@AndreasSteno @AdiSurreyEnergy Can you confirm you are short oil though?
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@AdiSurreyEnergy So you are telling me that HFI Research does not understand the only sector/topic he covers? 😂
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There is NO disconnect between futures and physical. There cannot be, by definition.
This is the way they were meant to work.
HFI Research@HFI_Research
Holy fuck.
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@mlmabc @RudyRong3 Forbes30 AGAIN
LIKE A CURRICULUM VITAE FOR CRIMINALS LMAO
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One of the founders, @RudyRong3 , appeared in a series "Crazy Rich Asians" 7 years ago and is the son of a Chinese billionaire. He was also present at the WLFI forum, where he met Changpeng Zhao.
youtube.com/watch?v=LEG_4a…
YouTube
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$M (Memecore) is currently trading at a $34.5B FDV and ranked top 25 by market cap - but the circulating supply shown on CoinMarketCap and Coingecko is wrong.
Their site lists 1.29B circulating. Only ~230M is actually unlocked. That's nearly 6x lower. (@CoinMarketCap @coingecko pls fix)
This creates misleading optics and can bait people into shorting because it looks like a worthless coin trading at tens of billions FDV. Don't do that.
Onchain, this is likely ~99.5%+ insider controlled:
Binance Alpha wallets: 48.85%
Insider wallet cluster: 23.46%
Genesis (team) wallets: 25.82%
Meson Finance + Kraken (funded by that cluster): 1.42%
Total estimated insider control: ~99.6% of circulating supply.
That means only ~9.7M tokens (~0.1% of total supply) are in non-insider hands. At a $35B valuation with only 2.3% unlocked, the real float is just ~0.0115% of total supply - roughly ~$4M actually held by non-insiders.
The above figures are estimates based on onchain data, but they clearly show the bigger picture.
Don't touch this coin.
ZachXBT@zachxbt
@MemeCore_M @Grayscale Officially recognized on @ZachXBT ! We’re just getting started. Please provide a single data point to support your $6B mkt cap at a top 20 token and why insiders hold >90% of supply.
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@Brad_Setser What about Argentina then? Recent history weakens this line of reasoning tbf
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And there isn't anything obviously "America first" about a financial lifeline to one of the richest oil sheikdoms (if not the richest) just so it doesn't have to borrow in the market/ sell assets ...
7/
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Interesting WSJ story about the Emirates request for a swap line --
the UAE hasn't reported its end March reserves but it went into the conflict with tons of reserves and no shortage of liquid bills in US custodians
1/
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@GracyBitget so it does look bitget as an institution is involved in this shit lmao
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GameStop（GME）在 2021 年 1 月 28 日盘中最高触及 $483 美元，收盘价约 $347.51。
从基本面来看，GameStop 当时只是一家陷入困境的实体游戏零售商，年营收持续下滑，被大多数分析师认为”合理估值”不超过 $10–20 美元。
也就是说，情绪和集体行动，把一个“合理价值 $10 的公司”，硬生生冲到了 $483，溢价超过 40 倍。
这背后的心理机制非常值得了解：
1.FOMO（错失恐惧）：看着别人赚钱，理性瞬间崩塌。
2. 群体认同感：Reddit 上的“我们 vs 华尔街”叙事，让买 GME 变成了一种”站队”行为，不再是投资决策。
3. 情绪的自我实现：当足够多的人相信“它还会涨”，它就真的会涨——直到音乐停下来。
4. 加密市场的镜像：这周 $RAVE 的故事，和 GME 如出一辙。只是从实体股票换成了一个 Meme 币，从 Reddit 换成了 X（Twitter）。
推荐大家去看《Dumb Money》——2021 年 GameStop 事件的电影。从里面能学到很多。
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@WazzCrypto @GracyBitget why do you call it a scam? clearly says in the name Bitget they are going to get your money
at least they're upfront about it
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Any comments @GracyBitget ?
Looks like straight up Grade A5 Premium Crime
方程式新闻 BWEnews 🏎️@bwenews
BWENEWS: a major RAVEDAO connected address just transferred 23m USD worth of RAVE into Bitget Spot exchange, causing price to nuke 30% on spot in short period of time. - Arkham intel.arkm.com/explorer/addre… 方程式新闻: 一个与 RAVEDAO 相关的主要地址向 Bitget 现货交易所转账了价值 2300 万美元的 RAVE，导致现货价格在短时间内暴跌 30%。- Arkham ARKM MarketCap: 84M RAVE MarketCap: 276M (Auto match could be wrong, 自动匹配可能不准确)
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1/ We are aware of the rumors and accusations circulating regarding $RAVE and RaveDAO team. We want to be clear: RaveDAO team is not engaged in, nor responsible for, recent price action. We take transparency seriously and remain humbled by the attention, but our focus is on the mission: bringing mass adoption to Web3 through live events.
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