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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1

aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1

@GnothiSeAuton

Gnothi Se Auton

THΞRΞ Katılım Ocak 2013
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Lex Fridman
Lex Fridman@lexfridman·
I'm traveling the world for a bit, starting with China but then hopping around the globe, anywhere. Open to any adventure. No plans, only a backpack. Hoping to meet & get to know humans from all walks of life. The pic is from a long hike on the Great Wall. For me, as a fan of history, this was an epic experience. In China, first I'm visiting a few big cities & talking to engineers at the heart of China's AI revolution. After that, if feeling crazy enough, I'm hitchhiking (first time) across rural China for a few weeks. Hitchhiking because I think it's the best way to meet rural folks who I would otherwise never get the chance to meet. I hope to do the same in US and other places. I have a request, if you have a travel recommendation, fill out the form(s) below if you feel like it. Or share with folks who might have advice about such travel. Form 1 - travel recommendation: If you can, recommend to me an interesting place I should visit anywhere in the world. For this, fill out form 1. Not touristy stuff, but something off the beaten path, that tourists may not know about, but is legendary. It could be as remote as meeting a herder in the mountains who is a local legend. Asia, Middle East, Europe, India, South/North America, Africa, Australia, anywhere. In China, I'm hoping to visit maybe Heibei, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu, Sichuan, Yunnan, etc, so recommendations for spots to visit are helpful. Form 2 - coffee: If you want to grab a coffee with me anywhere in the world, fill out form 2 (please don't use form 1 for that). Anyway, I hectically tossed stuff in backpack. Realizing I don't have a clear plan of any kind, which is probably the only way to do it. LFG. Love you all ❤️
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ZachXBT
ZachXBT@zachxbt·
1/ Meet Dritan Kapllani Jr, a US based threat actor tied to $19M from social engineering thefts targeting crypto holders. Dritan flexes luxury cars, watches, private jets, & clubs all over social media. Recently he was recorded on a call showing off a wallet with stolen funds.
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Harry Sisson
Harry Sisson@harryjsisson·
Trump had one of his worst mental health episodes yet last night, posting over 55 times in 3 hours. Here is the list: 10:15 PM - Accuses Obama of attempting a coup in 2016 10:15 PM - Says Obama worked with CIA to overthrow Trump 10:15 PM - Reposts tweet saying Obama is a “traitor” and that he should be arrested 10:22 PM - Attacks dominion voting systems for 2020 election saying they switched votes 10:22 PM - Says Fulton County, GA had their 2020 fraud exposed (there was none) 10:23 PM - Accuses Obama of personally making $120 million from Obamacare (wtf?) 10:23 PM - Cites quack lawyer Sidney Powell on the 2020 election 10:24 PM - Posts fake JFK Jr account that says Obama wiretapped Trump Tower 10:27 PM - Demands Senator Mark Kelly resign 10:29 PM - Claims neither Biden nor Harris were in charge of the Biden admin 10:29 PM - Attacks Fulton County, GA again 10:29 PM - Posts Fox News clip of Rep Ro Khanna 10:30 PM - Demands Jack Smith be arrested 10:30 PM - Accuses Obama, Clinton, and Comey of treason 10:39 PM - Reposts a tweet from a MAGA account saying they have secret intel proving Clinton and Obama committed crimes 10:39 PM - Reposts a MAGA tweet saying Hillary Clinton should be sent to Haiti 10:40 PM - Says the DOJ is “working hard” to arrest his enemies for treason 10:40 PM - Reposts a tweet attacking his own DOJ and Todd Blanche for no arrests of political enemies 10:40 PM - Posts a TikTok video of people stealing from a convenience store 10:41 PM - Posts a TikTok of someone taking a Door Dash order 10:41 PM - accuses Obama, John Brennan, and Clinton of sedition and treason again 10:42 PM - Posts a video of a man on CCTV footage knocking over food a waiter was carrying 10:47 PM - Calls Obama the “most DEMONIC FORCE” in American politics 10:47 PM - Posts a tweet from Mike Flynn saying 2020 election wasn’t fair 10:49 PM - Attacks Dominion again claiming they stole the 2020 election (it wasn’t) 10:51 PM - Reposts a fake Charlie Kirk account that claimed Obama blocked Hillary Clinton from being prosecuted 10:53 PM - Claims Obama was part of Hillary Clinton’s emails in some way 11:28 PM - Claims a senior Democrat just testified under oath that Senator Adam Schiff leaked classified information 1:13 AM - Attacks the New York Times for reporting on the reflecting pool This man is clearly not well.
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Willy Woo
Willy Woo@willywoo·
I ask Grok and Gemini to assess the risks investing in Strategy's $STRC yield instrument. Then I asked it to estimate a yield that would fairly compensate the investor for the risk undertaken. Both concluded 11.5% was underpaying for the risk. Grok: 17-22% APY Gemini: 16% APY
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Josie Kins
Josie Kins@Josikinz·
Working with @noonautics / @alieninsect to build an automated system that converts any written DMT experience report into a fully fledged animated replication at the click of a button. It's working better than I expected. 🫠
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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1
aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
Nillion ($NIL). @nillion migrated from Cosmos to Ethereum (ERC-20, with plans for L2 integration). $NIL now has much deeper utility inside the "Blind Computer" economy. Now it directly powers: - Access to the Blind Computer - Peer-to-peer payments btwn devs & node operators - Staking for verification & participation - Future governance on the L2 - Richer product interactions
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Jeff Park
Jeff Park@dgt10011·
taking the 'billion' out of the conversation for a second, it's worth reminding everyday folks what the anatomy of the State is actually all about- the State is an institution for social service. it feigns representation but the reality is that we are not the government, and the government is not us the State is also the only organized endeavor that obtains its revenue not by voluntary actions (such as the mutual sales of goods and services) but by coercion and compulsion. the State makes it a crime to not collect their revenue these conversations below will never advance democracy if we do not understand this very basic principle. only after, can we start talking about the "billion" question but the first principle we must agree is: AOC has never "earned" anything. she coerced her pay
Marco Foster@MarcoFoster_

AOC: “There’s a certain level of wealth and accumulation that is unearned. You can’t earn a billion dollars. You just can’t earn that. You can get market power, you can break rules, you can abuse labor laws, you can pay people less than what they’re worth, but you can’t earn that”

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beeple
beeple@beeple·
NEW ALLIANCES
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Nillion
Nillion@nillion·
Nillion moved to Ethereum and, with it, $NIL moved closer to the Blind Computer. NIL now has a more direct role in the network. On Cosmos, you could stake NIL, but it was mostly tied to block production. It was not deeply integrated into the Blind Computer itself. Now NIL sits much closer to the core of the system: • it gives access to the Blind Computer • it can move peer-to-peer between developers and node operators • it secures verification and participation through staking • it will shape governance on the L2 • it sits inside an environment built for richer interaction with the product NIL no longer lives beside the product. It lives inside the product economy.
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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1
aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
Bottom line: The most likely near-term reversal windows are May 8 (this Friday) for the initial unwind and May 15 (monthly OPEX) for the potentially more violent one. The original post is spot-on—the question isn’t if, but exactly when the flow reverses. These dates are the highest-probability catalysts. The gamma squeeze referenced in the May 7, 2026 X post (discussing record $2.6T notional S&P 500 call volume from May 6) is tied to heavy short-dated call buying, which forces dealer hedging and creates the self-reinforcing upside. Reversals or unwinds in these dynamics typically occur around option expiration (OPEX) dates, when gamma exposure decays rapidly: dealers no longer need to buy the underlying S&P 500 to hedge the calls they sold. This removes the supportive flow, often leading to sharp reversals (as the post warns: “brutal on the way down”). Key Upcoming SPX Expiration Dates (as of May 7, 2026) SPX options (the primary driver here) now expire frequently due to weeklies: This Friday, May 8, 2026 (weekly expiration) — Immediate near-term pressure point. Short-dated/0DTE-style calls dominate recent volume spikes, so gamma decay here could trigger the first unwind leg or volatility spike. Multiple sources tie the current squeeze narrative directly to “this Friday” expirations with trillions in notional exposure rolling off. Next Friday, May 15, 2026 (standard monthly OPEX, third Friday) — The bigger monthly reset. This is when the bulk of front-month open interest (including the calls likely fueling the April–May gamma rocket) expires. Historical gamma events often see the most pronounced reversal or “flip” here. After May 15, the cycle continues with weekly expirations (every Mon/Wed/Fri) and the June monthly on June 19.Quick Context on Timing & Mechanics The April 2026 “gamma rocket” (which pushed SPX past 6,500) was itself a negative-gamma-to-positive flip after prior expirations. The current May setup echoes that but at even larger scale. With SPX now featuring near-daily/weekly expirations, squeezes can persist day-to-day but frequently “reset” or reverse sharply post-OPEX as hedging demand evaporates. Watch for dealer gamma positioning (positive gamma suppresses vol; flips to negative accelerate moves). Current data shows elevated positive gamma above key levels (~7,000–7,300 zone), but expiration removes that support. spotgamma.com
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The Assembly
The Assembly@InTheAssembly·
The market just did something it has literally NEVER done before. The S&P 500 traded $2.6 trillion in call options yesterday. The highest single day call volume in market history. When traders buy massive amounts of calls, the market makers selling those calls are forced to hedge by buying the underlying stocks. That buying pushes prices higher. Higher prices force more hedging. More hedging pushes prices higher again. This is called a gamma squeeze. It works incredibly well on the way up. It’s brutal on the way down. The same loop that drove the S&P higher every day reverses with the same force when the calls expire or the trades unwind. We’re no longer watching investors price in earnings or growth. We’re watching options flow drag the largest index in the world. The question is not if it unwinds, the question is when. you want to know which stocks we’re buying next, turn on notifications this is VERY important.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Many people will wish they followed us sooner.
The Assembly tweet media
The Assembly@InTheAssembly

🚨 Something very unusual just happened. Someone purchased an insane amount of VIX calls. In other words, a big player is betting the market will crash soon and he's doing it with a lot of money. Nobody drops millions on VIX calls unless they know something we don’t. VIX calls only pay off when volatility explodes, which almost always means stocks are getting smoked. The last time the VIX was sitting this calm before getting blown up was early April 2025. 8 trading days later, the VIX exploded from under 17 to over 60. The S&P 500 had one of its worst 2-day drops since the 1987 crash. Trillions in market cap wiped out. We will keep watching. When we make a new move in the market, we will let you know. Turn on notifications so you don’t miss our alerts, this is extremely important. Many people will wish they followed us sooner.

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Cabana Boy 🌴
Cabana Boy 🌴@Alkibiades_·
This is the Axios "journalist" behind the recent 5 reports of an impending Iran deal. He's an Israeli citizen and former IDF cyberwarfare Unit 8200 member. David Ravid. Coordination with BOJ and US Treasury to rig oil markets lower and stocks higher.
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Watcher.Guru
Watcher.Guru@WatcherGuru·
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 FBI charges 30 people in global insider trading scheme that made tens of millions in illegal profits.
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Maine
Maine@TheMaineWonk·
A video from LAX is going viral after a Delta passenger grabbed the mic from behind the boarding gate and started making his own announcements. Not all heroes wear capes friends.
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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1
aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
Yellen (Feb 3, 2014), S&P 500 rose ~6% in 1st month, higher in following months, and multiple record highs in 2014. Bernanke (Feb 1, 2006), S&P 500 rose ~0.7% in 1st month (modest, but positive). Resilient in early months before longer-term issues (housing/financial crisis) emerged later.
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Michael | Hypermarkets
Michael | Hypermarkets@itsmichaelluu·
HISTORY WILL REPEAT: When Jerome Powell became the NEW FED CHAIR in February 2018, SPY crash 4%. Kevin Warsh is the NEW FED CHAIR on May 15, 2026. He does his first FOMC on June 17. History shows the average max drawdown under a new Fed Chair is -20%. SPY has NEVER been kind to regime change at the Fed.
Michael | Hypermarkets tweet media
Michael | Hypermarkets@itsmichaelluu

92% probability SPY crashes in May–June. Back under $700 → targeting $650. 5 massive reasons: 1. Fed instability + Kevin Warsh test = policy shock Markets hate uncertainty and the Fed is entering one of its most unstable periods in years. With political pressure rising and potential leadership shifts, policy direction becomes unclear right when inflation is still sticky. Historically, transitions or uncertainty around the Fed have led to volatility spikes and equity drawdowns. If markets lose confidence in rate control, multiples compress fast. 2. Tech is still historically overvalued (and fragile) SPY is trading around ~20.8x forward earnings well above long-term averages during uncertain macro periods. At the same time, return on equity is sitting near ~20% vs historical ~14.5%, signaling peak profitability conditions that are unlikely to sustain. 3. Rate cuts delayed → liquidity stays tight Inflation is re-accelerating (~3.3% recently), largely driven by energy and geopolitical factors. This forces the Fed to keep rates higher for longer—crushing the “rate cut rally” narrative. Markets priced in easing… but reality is tightening. When liquidity doesn’t come, assets reprice lower. 4. US–Iran war → oil spike → inflation shock Oil markets are now in a war-risk regime, with supply disruptions and rising costs hitting global economies. Energy prices are already forcing companies to downgrade outlooks and cut capacity. This creates a toxic loop: Higher oil → higher inflation → no rate cuts → lower valuations. That’s how crashes start. 5. Buffett sitting on massive cash = warning signal When the greatest investor alive refuses to deploy capital, you should pay attention. At peak cycles, Buffett historically builds cash not because he’s bearish short-term, but because valuations don’t justify risk. Combine that with: Rising layoffs Slowing hiring AI displacing entry-level jobs …and you get early-stage demand destruction forming beneath the surface. Even economists are warning unemployment could rise meaningfully as growth slows. I think the sell off is triggered middly of May closer to May 15, 2026 for FOMC.

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aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1
aΞonj ⓧ 🛞 X1@GnothiSeAuton·
@martypartymusic Biggest vulnerabilities in the thesis: 1. over-reliance on near-term legislative and liquidity catalysts that are already showing delays and friction, and 2. under-estimating how slowly institutional behavior actually changes even when the buyer base evolves.
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MartyParty
MartyParty@martypartymusic·
Bitcoin has only had 2 years of institutional buyers making the floor - anyone saying: - sell in may and go away - 4 year cycle - it did something in the past Is an idiot. They will hurt you. We following US liquidity which is about to go bananas. 🍌 Yes, there are heaps of leveraged longs below but Binance no longer has the firepower to hunt them. They lose equity and are already 400k $BTC behind Coinbase. The market is changing and Clarity will pass. This means: Types of Institutions Likely to Buy or Increase Bitcoin Exposure on Clarity Act 1. Traditional Banks and Custodians (e.g., BNY Mellon, State Street, JPMorgan, community banks/credit unions) • Can offer custody, trading, and related services more freely. • Some are already exploring or piloting; clarity removes hesitation. Banks may also integrate Bitcoin into treasury management or client offerings. 2. Asset Managers and Investment Firms (e.g., BlackRock, Fidelity, Morgan Stanley) • Already active via Bitcoin ETFs (which have seen massive inflows). The Act strengthens the foundation for broader spot holdings, tokenized products, and portfolio integration. • Easier modeling of risks and compliance. 3. Pension Funds and Retirement Plans (public and private, including 401(k)s) • Public pensions in several states have begun limited exposure; federal clarity (plus related DOL/EO developments) reduces fiduciary liability concerns for “alternative assets.” • Sovereign wealth funds and large endowments are often cited as waiting for this exact regulatory green light. 4. Insurance Companies • Can allocate reserves or general accounts to Bitcoin/ETFs with clearer accounting and risk-based capital treatment under the new framework. 5. Hedge Funds, Family Offices, and Private Equity/Venture Firms • Already significant players; the Act enables more seamless integration into funds-of-funds, prime brokerage, and structured products. 6. Corporate Treasuries (public companies) • Firms like MicroStrategy pioneered this; clarity makes it a more standard treasury strategy for diversification and inflation/hedging. Did I get your attention?
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Peter Girnus 🦅
Peter Girnus 🦅@gothburz·
I am the personal financial advisor to the 47th President of the United States. I have made him $4.05 billion in one term. Let me say that again. Four point zero five. Billion. One term. The presidency of the United States, upon proper management, outperforms every asset class in recorded financial history, including venture capital, petroleum futures, and the sovereign wealth fund in Abu Dhabi that manages $1.7 trillion and employs nine hundred analysts. I benchmarked it. We beat them with a staff of four and a leather binder. I keep a binder in the residence. I call it The Number. The Number was $3.4 billion in August. The Number is $4.05 billion now. The Number has never gone down. I update it every Friday at 6 AM, before the briefing, like a surgeon checking vitals on a patient who can only get healthier. The cover is leather. The tabs are color-coded by sector: Crypto, Finance, Hospitality, Media, Other. "Other" includes a Boeing 747-8 valued at $400 million, gifted to him by the Emir of Qatar while he was sitting President. There is no asset class for that. I invented one. I call it EAGLE-7. Crypto is seventy-five percent of the portfolio. $3.02 billion. I want you to sit with that figure. Three billion from digital tokens and stablecoins. From a man who in 2021 called Bitcoin "a scam against the dollar." His words. The flagship holding is Trump Media's bitcoin stockpile. He holds 42% of the company. The company sold shares to institutional investors. Used their capital to purchase bitcoin. His personal stake from that maneuver alone: $1.15 billion. He drafts national cryptocurrency regulation from the Resolute Desk. Signs executive orders on digital asset policy. Handpicks the SEC chair who will enforce them. His bitcoin goes up when he does these things. The investors' stock goes down. That's a conflict of interest. I'm kidding. I've never used those words in that order. That's the investment thesis. Then there is Alt5 Sigma. I need you to understand Alt5 Sigma. Alt5 Sigma was previously known as Appliance Recycling Centers of America. Founded in 1991. In Minnesota. It recycled dishwashers. Then it became a biotech. Then a digital payments company. Then Zach Witkoff, son of the President's special envoy, became chairman, and it became the primary vehicle for purchasing World Liberty Financial tokens. In 1991 it recycled dishwashers in Minnesota. In 2025 it funneled $562 million to the President's family through a Rwandan subsidiary convicted of money laundering. The CEO was removed. The CFO was fired. The auditor was replaced. Twice. The stock went from $8 to $2. We received $562 million from it. I put it in the binder. I logged it in the binder on a Thursday. I used Garamond. It felt appropriate for a company whose journey from kitchen appliances to international money laundering spanned exactly thirty-four years. The stablecoin is where the architecture gets beautiful. USD1. $136 million in projected interest over the remaining term. I will show you the math because the math is the point. $3 billion in circulation. Times 4% annual return. Times three years remaining in office. Times the family's 38% share. The UAE purchased $2 billion of USD1. Then Binance promoted it. Pumped circulation from $2 billion to $5 billion. Binance's founder had pleaded guilty to money laundering violations. He received a presidential pardon in October. I pardon you. You promote my stablecoin. My stablecoin generates $136 million. The pardon cost nothing. The coin cost nothing. The oath of office cost nothing. The entire apparatus of federal clemency was converted into a revenue instrument and nobody filed a complaint. That's yield. TRUMPcoin. $385 million. A memecoin with the President's face on it, launched days before inauguration. Every person who bought TRUMPcoin at launch and held it has lost 90 cents of every dollar. Every person who bought it made the President $385 million richer on the way in. That's the product. The product is not a coin. The product is belief. We are very long belief. His sons received a 13% equity stake in American Bitcoin. A New Yorker investigation determined they contributed, and I quote, "nothing else of obvious value." I would characterize their contribution differently. They contributed the single most valuable commodity in American commerce, worth more per ounce than lithium, more per gram than fentanyl, more per syllable than any word in the English language. Proximity to the man who pardons people. That's due diligence. Hospitality. $271 million. Mar-a-Lago now generates $50 million a year. It generated $10 million when he took office. Initiation fee: $1 million. You are paying $1 million to eat dinner in the same room as the man who controls the Department of Justice. I set that price. It is undervalued. Saudi Arabia. The Crown Prince visited the White House. Then Dar Al Arkan signed licensing deals estimated at $10 billion. Hotels in the Maldives. Golf clubs in Riyadh. A tower in Jeddah. He sat next to the man who ordered a journalist dismembered and said, quote, "He knew nothing about it." Then he signed the hotel deal. I have the term sheet. Our fee is 2-10% of revenue. We do not ask what happened to the journalist. That is not in our mandate. $106 million is in our mandate. That's client retention. Finance: $340 million, predominantly Persian Gulf sovereign wealth fund arrangements structured through intermediaries whose names I am not going to say in this format. Media: $116 million. Legal fee fundraising and branded merchandise: $128 million. The Qatari jet: $150 million. I have already mentioned the jet. I mention it again because a sitting foreign head of state gifted the sitting American President a $400 million flying palace with gold-plated fixtures and a master suite, and not a single member of Congress has asked a follow-up question. Not one. Not in committee. Not in writing. Not on camera. Five hundred and thirty-five legislators. Zero questions. Now. I am required by my own conscience, which is vestigial at this point, to disclose downstream performance. Every public-facing investment vehicle associated with this portfolio has collapsed for outside investors. I will read them. TRUMPcoin. Down 90%. American Bitcoin. Down 80%. Trump NFTs. Down 80%. Trump Media stock. Down 60% since inauguration. Alt5 Sigma. Down 75%. The family's positions were structured to extract value before these declines materialized. The retail investors' positions were structured to supply the value being extracted. There were approximately 600,000 retail wallets holding TRUMPcoin at peak. Retirees. Day traders. People who believed the branding. Their aggregate losses capitalized the portfolio. Their savings became his tab in the binder. That's liquidity. I want to address the competitive landscape. I am a financial professional. I benchmark everything. In 2016, the President stood at a podium and called Hillary Clinton "the most corrupt enterprise in political history." He said she "turned the State Department into her personal hedge fund." The accusation that ended her career was $153 million in speaking fees. Combined. With her husband. Over fifteen years. Goldman Sachs paid her $225,000 per speech. He said the word "crooked" so many times it became her legal name. $153 million. Fifteen years. Two people. I made him $4.05 billion. In one term. By himself. A 26-to-1 ratio. I wrote it on the whiteboard in the residence. Then there was the Biden family. "The Biden Crime Family," he called them. He held rallies about it. He got impeached over investigating it. The Republican House spent two years and $3.5 million in taxpayer funds to uncover, per their own final report, approximately $24 million in Biden family income over five years. Hunter Biden's Burisma salary was $1 million a year, later reduced to $500,000. The Chinese payments were $664,000. The House Oversight Committee called it "influence peddling at the highest level." $24 million. Five years. Ten family members. My client made that in two days. I have the math. $4.05 billion divided by 365 days is $11.1 million per day. The entire Biden investigation, the impeachment, the hearings, the Fox News segments, the "CRIME FAMILY" hats, all of it, for an amount my client earns before his Wednesday morning briefing. The ratio is 168 to 1. I put it on the whiteboard next to the Clinton number. The President saw it. He laughed. He did not ask me to take it down. "Drain the swamp," he said in 2016. I drained it. Into the binder. The swamp is now a portfolio. It is the highest-performing portfolio in the history of public office, and the man who built it ran for President on the promise that he would stop people from doing exactly what I help him do every single day. That's positioning. When the New Yorker published the full accounting, $4.05 billion across five sectors, and asked the President whether he saw a conflict of interest between the office and the fortune, between the pardons and the profits, between setting crypto policy and holding $3 billion in crypto, he told the New York Times six words. "I found out that nobody cared." He was right. He has been right about that singular fact since the beginning. Nobody cared when he launched the coin. Nobody cared when he pardoned the convicted money launderer who pumped his stablecoin. Nobody cared when a dishwasher recycling outfit in Minnesota became a $562 million pipeline to his family through a subsidiary that had been convicted on three continents. Nobody cared when 600,000 wallets evaporated so the leather binder in the residence could gain another tab. He found out nobody cared. Then he monetized the finding at a rate of $11.1 million per day, every day he has held office, including Sundays, including holidays, including the morning he sat next to the Crown Prince and said the murdered journalist had it coming. $4.05 billion. One presidential term. Zero indictments. Zero congressional hearings. Zero audits. Zero consequences of any kind for any person at any level of the operation. The chart goes up. It only counts his money. There is another chart. It has 600,000 wallets on it. Retirement accounts. People who believed a dishwasher recycling company in Minnesota was a sound vehicle for their savings. We do not publish that one. I filed it under EAGLE-7.
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