Gonzalo Varela

Energy is not just infrastructure. When we power a home, a business, or a hospital, we aren't just providing electricity—we are powering growth. Learn how #Mission300 is creating jobs & opportunities for millions across Sub-Saharan Africa: wrld.bg/rf3I50Z2t3B #PoweringAfrica

The growth in the importance of #digital infra & services investment is staggering.

In an environment of dwindling public resources and mounting uncertainty, the central question is how to protect the public investments that promote growth and jobs. blogs.worldbank.org/en/voices/face… via @worldbank

NEW EPISODE: While Chinese exports of electric vehicles to Europe flood the headlines, developing countries suffer silently from another problem caused by China's trade. This week, @arvindsubraman joins to explain. tradetalkspodcast.com/podcast/215-ho…

Great off-cycle chart (@BaldwinRE didn't post it as a factful Friday ;-)). On this topic, also worth listening to @arvindsubraman with @ChadBown @Trade__Talks x.com/Trade__Talks/s…

Here are the China dominance shares by sector 🔗 open.substack.com/pub/rbaldwin/p…

Icymi

Hoy podemos confirmar que la cuota de arroz otorgada por la UE al MERCOSUR para todo este año (6.667 toneladas) se acabó. Y Uruguay se quedó con el 63% del total. Uruguay no se duerme; y menos se duerme su sector productivo @compresidencia @CancilleriaUy @mef_Uruguay @FreddyLago

. @JonathanKarver

We surveyed 349 technical researchers, engineers, and managers (in February–April 2026) about how they use AI tools at work. On average, participants self-report that AI use made their work 1.6–2.1x more valuable, and that this multiplier will grow over time.

More quality evidence to add to the #industrialpolicy debate. #Korea

Thought provoking on #AI, #jobs and the future. economist.com/leaders/2026/0…

World Bank division director for Philippines Zafer Mustafaoglu talks about the Philippines as ASEAN’s next economic engine at the #BusinessWorldEconomicForum @bworldph

Growth in data centers—driven in part by rising AI demand—boosts local employment, wages, income, and house prices, while also increasing electricity prices, from Fernando E. Alvarez, @dargente05, Joyce Chow, and @dianavanpatten nber.org/papers/w35194

I am presenting in "preview mode" today for the first time Messy Jobs, in the Alumni Weekend of @LSEPublicPolicy. I profit from the opportunity to show you the cover by James Clarke! We are working hard towards a June 15th publication date. Hopefully we shall make it!

It seems that the #REER -> #exports conversation is coming back in #Pakistan, so bumping up this almost 6 year old 🧵, likely still relevant.

@Ab_1_1_1_1 @TalhaEjaz07ee @PseudoEconomist _real_ exchange rate depreciations boost exports all else equal through the effect on value added. If you just reexport (no value added, only imported inputs), then no effect.

Few years back, @gonwei along with his colleagues at the World Bank highlighted an important point on Pakistan’s exports: A 1% REER depreciation increases exports by ~0.5% in the long run, but the adjustment is asymmetric. Exports fall much faster after rupee appreciation than they recover after depreciation. The reason is structural. Losing export clients is easy; rebuilding buyer relationships, pricing strategies, and customized production takes time and cost, especially in textiles and surgical goods. Commodity exports like rice and wheat adjust relatively faster due to organized markets and benchmark pricing. Another key takeaway from the same report: Pakistan’s export challenge is not just the exchange rate. High import tariffs, low productivity, limited long-term financing, and weak market intelligence also constrain export growth.

@TalhaEjaz07ee @PseudoEconomist Happy to discuss it.

@PseudoEconomist @gonwei Yup. People don't think his work is accurate. I saw an iba guy telling altogether opposite to this

India's tech boom helped, but barriers to education and migration created big regional winners and losers. Just Accepted new paper by Devaki Ghose @DevakiGhose zurl.co/Y5XUE

Featured in the latest Digest: Global Evidence of Business Use of AI nber.org/digest/202605/…