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Goodwill Impairment
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Goodwill Impairment
@goodwillimp
, CPA Battery Think Tank Investor
Katılım Nisan 2023
225 Takip Edilen419 Takipçiler

@CompoundingTony The company who took an accounting position so aggressive that their auditor fired them was doing something illegal???
Color me shocked.
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My only interest in $EOSE is seeing if this flaming bag of dog shit can ever be profitable. I don’t care what you do with your money. I told you what I was seeing and what I was doing with mine when it was unpopular to do so and other big accounts were talking about hulk candles, “the real move hasn’t happened yet,” and “textbook setups” at $18 while they were quietly dumping their shares. I feel bad for the guys that got swept up in that noise and lost their ass.
I’m not short. I don’t have puts. I don’t have a price target for re-entry. I’m not particularly interested in investing again with their current CEO still at the helm. My lines in the sand are performance based, not price based. It’s an amusing circus to watch and I still follow a lot of you so it pops up on my feed constantly, so that’s why I call out some of the smooth brained takes I’ve been seeing. I’m one of a handful of accounts that has battled both bulls and bears on this investment over the years. Deal with it.
Batfleck@JezzieFlannigan
@tmitch4040 this account, topher, and hunger strike have all been talking to each other, this is a very common tactic used by manipulators to get you to be bearish. this is similar to how meme coins are launches. talking to each other can signal the same person is running the account.
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@dmottco The $100m fixed costs is what I am trying to nail down. then we can back into variable any insight here will be helpful.
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@goodwillimp The fixed costs are what they are
The variable costs I assume are
Bipolar plates (Acro): ~$30-35/kWh
Housing and structure: ~$8-10/kWh
Electrolyte fill: ~$5-8/kWh
Labor and testing: ~$8-10/kWh
Logistics: ~$5/kWh
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$eose if line 1 is configured like line 2. Which it eventually will be this is what I think Eos will look like
Revenue per kWh — $250
Variable cost — $60
Variable gross margin — 76%
Two lines — $1B revenue
Variable COGS — $240M
Cash Fixed COGS — $100M
Depreciation — $36M
Total COGS — $376M
Gross Profit — $624M
Gross Margin — 62.4%
Add 45X credits — $140M
Effective gross profit — $764M
Effective gross margin — 76.4%
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@dmottco @bert_gilfoyle @xEBITDA Redemption is the company buying the pref shares back. Don’t think it’s mandatory.
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@dmottco @bert_gilfoyle @xEBITDA If going well PE relationships can last a long time. Client of mine is in year 7.
Think this one has a lid at 10 years due to expiry.
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@bert_gilfoyle @xEBITDA Who the hell is going to buy a portion of their shares without promises not to sell the rest on their heads. I think their situation is not an easy one. I think they are either all in or all out
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@johnny85208429 @99_loss_capital Eos goes back to $15 if they show me 90M of revenue and 90M of COGS. I’ll get it there myself.
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@99_loss_capital Good analysis on the near term. Thanks. As an aside, I’d be shocked if it goes back to $15 this year.
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@mymorristribe @NetMelc 😂😂 this time of the year I wish I didn’t know accounting. The other times of the year I am glad I do
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@goodwillimp @NetMelc 😂 Nah, I've seen your posts on financials. I have to ask Grok to explain them to me like I'm a child. I wish I learned accounting years ago.
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@goodwillimp @NetMelc Yep. They listed and dropped hard. Now it's re-rated. I hope one of you smart money types digs into them eventually. But, I don't understand the economics of the utility side of things. Seems like there's not much profit there, but who knows.
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@NetMelc @mymorristribe WTH happened in early February??
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$NFE New Fortress Energy Signs Restructuring Support Agreement
ir.newfortressenergy.com/news-releases/…
@CockedStriker
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@NeeleySadler @mountainwesttax Advise them to make less money in order to reduce their tax bill.
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@goodwillimp That’s a given. If the battery is fundamentally unprofitable Eos is fucked.
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$EOSE
If your given two options as the ceo which one do you go with …
Option a:
Maintain guide-> raise $80m warrant cash
Raise $500m in equity
Remove GC risk
But lose credibility after the miss
Option b:
Preserve credibility
But likely: stock is lower, less capital raised (at worse terms), GC risk persist for longer
Ultimately if the tech actually works the choice is easy.
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@srvc76 I don’t feel like $300M is the big debate, I think the big debate is what will happen with COGS this year. It’s imperative that they cut down on scrap & rework. $300 is seems doable provided they have customers
Cost/kwh increasing when production doubled is a big red flag to me
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$EOSE
It’s been a few weeks since the Q4 print and I’ve read a lot of takes on Eos. Some thoughtful, some emotional. Per usual.
Truth is.. everyone digests information differently based on their own timeline, obligations, & tolerance for volatility.
Some people truly rely on the market to fund everyday parts of their life… others are thinking 5, 10, 15+ years out. Both seats exist and that’s part of what makes markets fascinating.
For those of us who have accepted the peaks and troughs of a long term investment, price deviation & “what the hell just happened” moments .. are part of the ride. That includes premiums to credibility, vanished. Horrific earnings.
As long as the underlying trend of the business continues to move forward… that’s what matters. It’ll never be perfect or on your timeline.
“Short-term thinking demands immediate proof. Long-term investing lets time deliver the verdict.”
-> Mind you.. a short-term viewing can absolutely be 1-3+ yrs.. or even longer.
Take a step back and look at the numbers.
In the second half of 2024, Eos printed back to back quarters with less than $1M in revenue.
Let that sink in for a second…
Fast forward to early 2026, 18 months. The debate is whether they can reach roughly $300M this year. Regardless of street’s expectations, sandbagging, or just overall questioning of optics within Q4.. I get it.
Healthy skepticism is absolutely fair based of recent trends, but the scale of that progression shouldn’t be ignored.
Two years ago this company was conserving cash, slowing operations, and dealing with extremely expensive capital just to keep the lights on.
Today they sit on a much stronger balance sheet with capital to execute & a clearer operational path forward.
That is a massive shift. Again, a massive shift.
Nothing is perfect and the story is still early… but when you zoom out, the trajectory is remarkable. If a company goes from under $1M per quarter to over $100M per quarter within a handful of years… that is real scaling. Hypergrowth.
Markets will always price things daily. Macro, sentiment, bears, momentum… all of it.
But sometimes it’s worth peeling back the noise and just looking at the progression of the business itself.
Eos is still in the early chapters… and the trend is what matters. They should be a dead SPAC.
But every investor also has to do a personal check in. What is your timeline… how much volatility can you realistically handle… & what milestones do you personally need to see next from the business?
Markets will always test conviction along the way.
But if you step back and focus on progression instead of daily price… the story becomes much clearer.
For me, that progression is still moving in the right direction. Let’s see what 2026 brings. Their first full year with a SotA line.
Good luck
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For anyone who didn't know already, Derek Trucks was a member of The Allman Brothers Band and is probably the best living slide guitarist right now. This is awesome.
Travis Akers 🇺🇸@travisakers
Derek Trucks is playing Allman Brothers on Jerry Garcia’s guitar, Tiger. This is not a drill! 🎥 sgibson818
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@TopherGotWifi @Cluster_6 This is the world we live in now. For the life of me I do not understand it.
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For all of you who thought that the “proud boys” were real (and not feds)….you’d see them in action in Dearborn, MI as these Muslims chant “death to America.”
They’d be taking care of business. But the proud boys were a psyop and this country is full of beta males, or they’d go up there in a group and square off with these fools.
Dr. Maalouf @realMaalouf
In the middle of Dearborn, Michigan, an entire crowd chants “Death to America.” When asked about it, Rashida Tlaib refused to condemn it.
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@xEBITDA @RsnblAssurance @StockHawk402 Correct. Been saying it since 2/26. Margins margins margins.
$eose
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The real risk for $EOSE is not “chemistry collapse”. It’s the same risk every hardware startup faces: manufacturing economics. Every investor in $EOSE is painfully aware of this.
If cost per kWh doesn’t fall as production scales, margins stay negative and dilution continues.
That’s the actual bear case.
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