gouml

2.2K posts

gouml

gouml

@gouml1983

Katılım Ocak 2022
2 Takip Edilen21 Takipçiler
Andy Hazelton
Andy Hazelton@AndyHazelton·
This is a good question. And the answer is yes we do look at aggregate statistics and also case studies like this to improve the model. In this case I think HAFS was overdoing the supercellular convection out over the Gulf. It was somewhat real as evidenced by the 80 mph observations at an oil platform. But I think what the model was doing was being too quick to develop a new low pressure in response. It was at least correct that the system would get sheared again regardless. I think HWRF might have been the best for this system overall though.
Edward the Texas Moran@TexasMoran

Hello Dr. @AndyHazelton - I pretty much knew a new LLC would struggle to form when Bertha's old LLC still had a vigorous circulation over SE Louisiana and would be interfering with formation of a new LLC. The HAFS models were showing almost immediate center reformation offshore yesterday. Not a big bust but does the development team look at errors and try to tweak the physics or simplifying assumptions that lead to errors? HAFS were, of course, an order of magnitude better than the HMON which had numerous runs with a hurricane approaching the middle Texas coast.

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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@MaxVelocityWX If you wrote that in 1974, I'd have assumed it was Bertha Butt. The Bertha Butt Boogie was one of the absolute worst songs to be a hit then.
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Max Velocity
Max Velocity@MaxVelocityWX·
I’m about to be inside of Bertha, wish me luck!
Max Velocity tweet media
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@UmpScorecards 5 calls overturned. The ABS system and the pitch clock were two terrific rule changes.
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@ericfisher Mother Nature is very good at mean reversion.
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Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher@ericfisher·
Just my $0.02 but I think we will end up looking at this July as the hinge point where we left the dry overall pattern of the past year and a half and start a wetter regime. El Nino should bring plenty of moisture heading into fall and winter. #wbz
Eric Fisher tweet media
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@ericfisher We had a downpour in Wilmington. It didn't last long but my grandmother would have called it a gully-washer.
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Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher@ericfisher·
Rained for all of 10 minutes and still did a decent job of flooding out the parking lot
Eric Fisher tweet media
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@ericfisher @RedSox I'm glad we have a pitch clock. That double play was quite well-timed, too! On to history being made!
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Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher@ericfisher·
Sox have about 40 minutes to wrap it up at Fenway before rain/storms arrive in Boston. Was hoping to perfectly squeeze this downpour chance in between games...let's see if we can pull it off. @tomcaron #wbz
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@ericfisher I love whoosh gifs. In the Merrimack Valley, it poured around 1:00 am. A bit of a surprise but we need it.
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Eric Fisher
Eric Fisher@ericfisher·
Humid day tomorrow with a couple more PM storms firing up. Then the drier air pours in through the weekend
GIF
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@ericfisher He might be tomorrow's closer - Chapman might need a night off. He's been busy. Gotta love Durbin. He's a dirt dog.
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@BenNollWeather Wow - about 5 weeks ahead of 1997. Records might not just be broken, they may be shattered.
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Ben Noll
Ben Noll@BenNollWeather·
Incredible warmth continues to build across the equatorial Pacific. In the central Pacific, this El Niño is already as warm as the 1997 event was in late August and the 2015 event was in early October.
Ben Noll tweet media
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@UmpScorecards Some of those misses must have been from a position player pitching but 4 of them were absolutely brutal misses. 19-2 game, not a big deal, but still, do the job.
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@kerpen 120 minutes and Argentina couldn't get a shot on goal. Such excitement!
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Phil Kerpen
Phil Kerpen@kerpen·
OK, soccer is done for another four years.
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GeoPobe51
GeoPobe51@George02789416·
@UmpScorecards Justified buyout. Watched this game. Wasn't as efficient as it looks
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gouml
gouml@gouml1983·
@ericfisher So now everyone knows how good we've got it.
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Keşfet

@ReedTimmerUSA @AndyHazelton @MaxVelocityWX @UmpScorecards @ericfisher @RedSox @TomCaron @elonmusk