Groovyabba

@WhiteHouse Designate the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization! That will greatly help to honor the murdered and kidnapped! Qatar is a sponsor! x.com/trobinsonnewer…

@GenFlynn @POTUS Sadly, we finally know who you are and that it is illegitimate to admire and follow you and agree with your assessments. A great disappointment as is Qatarlson, Candacestein and the rest of the depraved anti-America cohort.

.@POTUS Trump has good instincts. History has proven that. But I’ve spent a career in intelligence studying how decisions get made at the highest levels of government, and the man at the top rarely acts alone. This is not hypothetical. We have watched it happen before. Good presidents have been maneuvered into catastrophic decisions by advisors with other agendas who suffered none of the consequences. Even though the buck still stops with the president, the American people suffer (and bear the casualties), all while the architects of the policy land softly in think tanks, boardrooms, and lobbying firms. What lies ahead depends entirely on who is truly in control of this decision. Continue to Pray for our President. @realDonaldTrump.

@DavidM_Friedman Negotiating and concessions is the wrong rubric, surrender and abdications is the correct.

Iran is far weaker than it was 40 days ago. Its ability to threaten the USA or Israel has been massively diminished. No one can challenge that. As a result, the safety and security of the USA, Israel and its allies has improved significantly. Those saying the victory is only tactical and not strategic are just fond of using big words. The victory must begin with tactics — successful military operations. We’ve now done that. Then comes the effort to achieve a strategic victory — to convert the gains on the battlefield to long term verifiable commitments from Iran to end malign behavior. We may or may not get there, but we are in a better position to get there than ever before. And we will be negotiating without a gun to our heads.

@AmitSegal You left out the most obvious third option which is that Iran chooses to remain aligned with its proxies and Trump correctly interprets the Hormuz closing and other recalcitrance as a violation of the ceasefire agreement and obliterates their energy infrastructure.

The first 24 hours of any ceasefire are rarely quiet. But last night in Lebanon, Israel issued a deafening statement: in one place at least, it is still at war. As part of Operation Eternal Darkness, 50 fighter jets dropped 160 bombs on 100 targets across Beirut, the Beqaa Valley, and southern Lebanon within just 10 minutes, targeting command centers, intelligence headquarters, rocket and naval units, and assets of the elite Radwan Force. The massive scale of the strike was a product of three main factors. The first is that it simply became possible. With so many fighters withdrawn from Tehran’s skies, the IDF had the option to concentrate military force in Lebanese airspace. Second, the strikes served as a definitive statement of Israel’s interpretation of the ceasefire—namely, that it does not apply to Hezbollah. Third, if Trump were to impose a ceasefire in the north to preserve his ceasefire in the east, Israel wanted to ensure its final strike was devastating and decisive. So far, Trump has sided with Israel’s interpretation, stating that Lebanon “was not included in the deal” and describing the ongoing fighting as “a separate skirmish.” Pakistan and Iran claim otherwise. Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi wrote on X that, “The Iran–U.S. Ceasefire terms are clear and explicit: the U.S. must choose—ceasefire or continued war via Israel.” No one expected Iran to celebrate the continued degradation of its most important proxy; the real question is what Tehran is willing to risk for their ally. Iranian negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has already declared negotiations “unreasonable” under the current conditions. Furthermore, the IRGC has claimed that shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has been halted and will not resume until Israel’s attacks in Lebanon cease. Israel does not seem intent on ending its campaign, so the question becomes: who will break first? The answer is about far more than interpretation of the ceasefire agreement; it is a fundamental question of whose strategy survived Roaring Lion. If Iran breaks and leaves its proxy at the mercy of Israel, then the Axis of Resistance has officially broken. The Iranian guarantee becomes as worthless as their currency, and its proxies will have to chart their own courses, if not disintegrate altogether. Conversely, if Israel concedes, then it has surrendered its post-October 7 security doctrine: never allow threats to build up on the borders. In the post-Roaring Lion world, only one doctrine can survive. To read the rest of today's newsletter click here. newsletter.amitsegal.net/p/its-noon-in-…

@AmitSegal Your cynicism belies any journalistic effort in your post. Our existential perpetuation is far more critical than an election cycle to PM Netanyahu and the current coalition.

Israel’s lesson from October 7 is that intentions do not matter—only capabilities do. For years, the IDF ignored the terror monster rising on its borders and instead focused on whether the enemy intended to attack or whether it was in its interest to do so. Similarly, although it is tempting to dwell on sentiments in Tehran, it is irrelevant. The only question is whether Iran currently has the capability to pose a real threat to Israel. The answer, after 40 days of war, is: less than it did forty days ago. In practical terms, Iran promised it would not sign a temporary ceasefire—and it did. It said the Strait of Hormuz would not reopen—and it reopened. It swore to include ending the war in Lebanon—and Hezbollah suffered hundreds of casualties yesterday. This is what remains of the Iranian axis that once cast fear across the Middle East. The Iranian “victory image,” encouraged by broad segments of the international media, arguesthat Iran survived ten rounds against the heavyweight world champion and lives to tell the tale. The question is what that survival is worth. Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah used the draw with Israel in the 2006 Second Lebanon War to receive a blank check from his Iranian patrons and build a formidable axis of resistance. What will Iran now do with this sense—real or fabricated—of survival? After Operation Rising Lion, every available Iranian rial was invested in rebuilding the ballistic missile array, seen as the only answer to Israel. The result was a relatively quick recovery, but also enormous public anger that was suppressed only at the cost of massacre. Now there is much to rebuild and far fewer rials: should Iran buy a new navy? an air force? invest in missiles? rebuild Hezbollah, which is groaning under a heavy deficit? or invest domestically to calm a population whose situation has only worsened? The condition of the former Iranian empire is dire, and there are no signs of improvement on the horizon. The Gulf states that were attacked by Iran have not forgotten the lesson. They are not Israel, accustomed to rounds of fighting every year or two. Generations of Emiratis, Qataris, and Saudis will carry the trauma of running to unprotected spaces while tourism, stability, and energy went up in flames. Israel stands to gain greatly from this anti-Iranian coalition, which was effectively forced off the fence and is unlikely to return to it soon. One can hope that Trump and Netanyahu are tying the Gulf states into a more stable and public alliance, for the benefit of future generations. The (temporary?) end of the war also marks the opening of the Knesset election campaign. Netanyahu, who hoped to ride the fall of the Iranian regime all the way to preserving his rule in Israel, now faces a more complex task than he expected when launching the operation. There is a sense of sourness among the public over the gap between hopes of toppling the regime and the mid-war outcome. The bigger challenge is on the northern border, where public sentiment is harsh—and rightly so—after promises that Hezbollah had been defeated. Opposition leaders have identified this well and competed with one another in describing what they call a disgraceful historic failure, hoping voters will connect more with that than with Netanyahu’s promises of total victory. For the prime minister, toppling Iran in the coming months is a task of supreme importance not only strategically, but also for his political survival. Everyone hopes the Iranian regime will fall soon; Netanyahu would be glad if it falls, if possible, before October 27.

@MJTruthUltra This is part and parcel of the narrative to invoke the 25 amendment. Megyn and her ilk are as vile and anti-American as the progressive left.

Megyn Kelly says she’s sick and tired of President Trump’s shit, he’s disgusting— and those who say he’s playing 3D chess to negotiate, to shut up with that shit 🤣 “Can’t he just behave like a normal human being” Normal Like who Megyn? Obama? He was pretty normal and F’d this country up big time. You cheered him along too. We remember. rumble.com/v788epq-megyn-…

Those of us relegated to bomb shelters over the past 5 weeks do not share your enthusiasm. Hamas rearmed while the Board of Peace has been restricting Israel’s response. Hezbollah and the Houthis are still active. Negotiations with terrorists is folly. Imagine if we had negotiated a ceasefire with Hitler or Japan — the Nazis would have remained in power, Imperial Japan would have held its saber over the west. No. Only unconditional surrender can bring about true peace and prosperity for the Middle East. We need to finish the job!

Coming back online after the Passover holiday and reading the extraordinary news, my reaction is this: This was a massive win for the US and Israel; anyone saying otherwise is blinded by TDS or NDS. Where it ultimately leads — at minimum, a drastic reduction in Iran’s ability to project power or, more likely, a comprehensive resolution of all open issues — we will see in the weeks to come. But America and Israel have never before had this leverage to drive a good outcome and the Iranian regime’s ability to hold on and repress its people has never been weaker. Congratulations to @POTUS and to all those who led this fight.

Well, Witkoff et al succeeded in doing so last round, stopped Israel cold from destroying Hamas, which has since rearmed while the Peace Board does…what exactly besides limit Israel’s ability to respond? …. This is a shit show until the west wakes up and stops trying to impose western values on Islamic fueled fanatics. Unconditional surrender or utter destruction. Stop negotiating and finish the job! For f’in sake!

🔴 Iran has informed mediators that it will only participate in talks scheduled to take place in Pakistan if the current ceasefire includes Lebanon Translation: Iran is betting it can get Trump to rein in Israel

If Hormuz isn’t relevant to America’s interests since the USA is energy independent, and as a consequence Trump said that Europe and China should open up the strait, how is it that Hormuz is the linchpin to a ceasefire! Something smells rotten. Terrorists must unconditionally surrender or be destroyed, anything other than that, they resurge like an infestation of cockroaches.🪳

If everything militarily was destroyed in Iran, how are they launching missiles at Israel, minutes after this "ceasefire"?

@VividProwess You want them to surrender not negotiate a ceasefire! The latter is an arrangement made between equal forces, not the vanquished and the vanquished!

Pete Hegseth says Iran begged for a ceasefire. My question is: Why give it to them? We were crushing this terror regime after they terrorized the world for 47 years, all we had to do was continue. Why stop now?

@LauraLoomer Very true, therefore, since Trump is President, this failure to understand the enemy and its subsequent consequences are his and his alone!

The Islamic terrorist regime of Iran is now more legitimized and emboldened than ever before. Terrorists can’t be negotiated with. They can only be destroyed. The US doesn’t get anything out of this ceasefire that isn’t a ceasefire. How many missiles did Iran fire into allied countries last night? A lot.

With all due respect, Trump also said that the USA has no interest in the Hormuz and that it is contingent upon Europe and China to ensure that it remains open. Having it now as a condition for a ceasefire is not merely hypocritical, it belies the entire purpose of the military effort to decimate the enemy. From their perspective, they have won! Surviving to fight another day is also a fast and ancient battle strategy.

The Ceasefire in Iran Isn’t Retreat...It’s the Blade Pausing Mid-Strike. The regime in Tehran and every keyboard warrior crowing about “Trump’s weakness” just walked into the oldest trap in the warrior’s handbook...mistaking calculated restraint for collapse. President Trump has just announced a two-week suspension of strikes on Iran...conditional on the immediate, full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran calls it “victory.” Of course they do. Their entire strategic psychology demands they frame any pause as enemy frailty. In their zero-sum theology, mercy is proof of broken will. They cannot conceive of power choosing the scalpel over the sledgehammer once the enemy’s throat is already bared. This is not weakness. This is precision dressed in the language of de-escalation. Trump’s military objectives have been met and exceeded. Iranian air defenses gutted, nuclear latency crippled, proxy networks bleeding from precision strikes, and now the economic jugular...the Hormuz lifeline...is being forced open under American terms. Oil markets breathe. Global energy chokepoints are neutralized without turning the Persian Gulf into a radioactive crater. The two-week window is not surrender...it is operational breathing room. Time to resupply, rearm, refine targeting packages, and let the Iranians parade their hollow triumph on state television while their Supreme Leader’s inner circle stares at the smoking ruins of their centrifuge halls. Geopolitically, this is masterful. Iran’s 10-point “plan” is already on the table...Trump called it “workable.” Translation: Tehran blinked first and handed Washington the negotiating leverage they spent years denying existed. Pakistan and China played mediator? Fine. Let them claim credit while the real architecture of a long-term deal...denuclearization, proxy disarmament, sanctions relief calibrated to verifiable behavior...gets hammered out in Islamabad. The regime that closed the strait to project strength has now reopened it under duress. That is not victory. That is psychological emasculation wrapped in Farsi propaganda. Here is the venomous truth the mullahs refuse to swallow: in cultures that worship unrelenting aggression, any ceasefire reads as capitulation. Trump knows this better than they do. He has weaponized their own cultural blind spot. They will strut and chant “Death to America” louder than ever...because admitting they folded under deadline pressure would shatter the myth that sustains their regime. Meanwhile, the American position hardens: we demonstrated we can rain hell at a moment’s notice, we chose not to because objectives were achieved, and now we dictate the tempo of the endgame. This is not the end of pressure...it is pressure refined, professionalized, and timed for maximum strategic harvest. The regime thinks they bought time. They bought the rope. Trump didn’t back down. He stepped back to swing harder. 💀🗡️🪖🦅

@emilykschrader @DumisaniTemsgen The naïveté of the west is its demise.

I want to be crystal clear about this since the White House insists on manipulating rhetoric at the whims of the President: No regime change has taken place in Iran. Not in theory, not in ideology, not at all. Pezeshkian is still the president, Ejei is still calling shots for the judiciary, and Ghalibaf still controls the parliament. These aren’t “reasonable” people and they aren’t moderate — they are cold blooded killers, and they will carry out a massive campaign of slaughter when given the chance (which this two weeks of ceasefire gave them). Legitimizing them is no different than legitimizing Nazis; you are only kicking the can down the road. That said, if the highly enriched uranium is actually going to be handed over this is a great step — but once again President Trump’s rhetoric is misleading and frankly irresponsible and the Iranian people will pay the price for these comments. Even if we take the deal as a positive achievement and a step forward, it’s not peace…and it’s not even close. It’s a band-aid that preserves the regime…now it may be a band-aid that’s necessary or even temporarily advantageous, but to present it as solving a conflict or even “regime change” is absurd to the point of insult and sheer gaslighting.

@LauraLoomer His proximity or lack thereof to the negotiations is no shield. The buck stops with him. He is naive when it comes to Islam and the Middle East. Only severing the head of the snake and incinerating the body can lead to true peace across the region and throughout the globe.

The reality is, these negotiations are awful for America and they only embolden the terrorist regime in Iran. Luckily President Trump wasn’t in charge of the negotiations. That’s what we all need to remember when the ceasefire that isn’t a ceasefire fails and Americans are attacked and killed by Iranian proxies or the IRGC. Trump understands the real danger and threat posed by the Iranian regime, which is why people around him (I’m sure we can all figure out who planted the NY Times story) stabbed him in the back yesterday by leaking private Situation Room conversations to @nytimes to pretend like they were against the war when many of these people are on the record supporting the war themselves. Iran will continue being a threat to the US and Western civilization until the regime is wiped out. People who think you can negotiate with the regime don’t understand how brutal their Islamic ideology is. President Trump will be proven right in the end and those who negotiated with Islamic terrorists will be made to look like fools. We are already losing the midterms due to the incompetence of GOP Reps who refused to codify President Trump’s agenda in my opinion, so you might as well destroy the regime.

@EylonALevy @ianmiles Letting them survive is a humiliating disaster which is interpreted by them as a sign of victory. The west to this day does not understand the Middle East, nor the mindset of Islam.

If President Trump lets the Iranians charge a toll for ships in the Strait of Hormuz, then every time you fill up your car at the pump, you will put money straight in the pockets of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. This would be a humiliating disaster for the US.

@EretzIsrael The difference between a true victory, an unconditional surrender which leads to permanent change and long lasting peace, and an American style deal, which leads to a negotiated ceasefire and the status quo with the promise of future aggression.

Trump sells the ceasefire as a major success and even a “golden age” for the Middle East. But in Israel it’s seen by many as a failure. 🔹️ The Iranian regime remains in place 🔹️ The enriched uranium remains 🔹️ The ballistic missile threat persists 🔹️ And now Iran will charge ships #Hormuz One thing is clear: Trump has no interest in resuming the war. A glance at oil prices, which fell sharply after the announcement of the ceasefire, speaks volumes. Trump spins it as a success. But for Israel it seems premature. A lot of effort, for very little substance. #Israel

@EretzIsrael A paper “I ah told ya” so…

🚨 Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has ordered the Iranian Armed Forces, including elements of the Artesh and the IRGC, to cease all further firing against Israel and the other countries across the Middle East, according to IRIB. #NO2IR

@IsraeliPM @SpencerGuard We didn’t stay in bomb shelters for almost two months to accept a ceasefire as opposed to an unconditional surrender. The majority of Israelis is vehemently against this compromise.

The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals, shares by the US, Israel and Israel's regional allies, in the upcoming negotiations. The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon.

Prime Minister’s Office: Israel supports President Trump's decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the US, Israel and countries in the region.

@DrEliDavid Moral clarity and articulation has a greater impact than deal making. Hitler and Japan surrendered unconditionally, that’s what led to the end of hostilities. Not “let’s make a deal” Americana.

The war started because Iran refused Trump's demands: 1. Stop uranium enrichment 2. Give up enriched uranium 3. Stop building long range missiles 4. Stop supporting terrorist groups If the war ends with Iran agreeing to the above, it's a victory for Trump. Otherwise, it's not.

@DrEliDavid Any negotiations with terrorists is folly! Just like the vacuous agreements with Hamas and Hezbollah— they are strong and aggressive as ever! The equivalent would be negotiating with Hitler for a ceasefire. How do you think that would’ve turned out?

@VividProwess 100%

We have been sitting in bomb shelters for 40 days under heavy ballistic missile attacks just to get what? A meaningless ceasefire? Why are there negotiations with a terror regime that vows it will do whatever it takes to see America and Israel destroyed? We must finish the job.