
the combat wombat
2.3K posts

the combat wombat
@guerrillawombat
mid-Atlantic multidomain marsupial


Five Eyes was built for another era. We get diminishing value from four partners, and ties with Britain are at a low point. Time to rethink the alliance around those actually delivering intelligence value — Israel, Poland, Ukraine, UAE, Japan, ROK and other serious partners.





two things that “radicalized” me about this useless stupid war: 1) these videos are often posted with masturbatory glee 2) the victims are always uniformed but very often unarmed and without helmets… almost like they’re PoWs who have been released and hunted on video for sport



Iranian forces appear to have damaged or destroyed multiple USAF KC-135 tankers parked in the open at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia.


Many say the Islamic Republic "wins by not losing" - by merely surviving, it wins. That is true, but only in a narrow sense. It is also true that while it will likely not collapse from the war, it will emerge with its military and security capabilities significantly degraded.


chinese state broadcast on america and iran, episode 2


So far this war is succeeding in making 1 of the top 5 energy shipping routes the private toll road of a country whose top military spokesman declared, just a week ago, that Iran will target “parks, recreation sites & tourist facilities” globally. That’s a horrifying outcome.


Saudi Arabia has been rerouting millions of barrels of oil from the Gulf to the Red Sea via its East–West pipeline since the war began. Tankers are now moving through the Red Sea to load crude at Yanbu, easing pressure from the Gulf shutdown. But if the Bab al-Mandeb is attacked, that fallback route collapses, which could trigger a major disruption in global oil markets.





@ThomasPierret @TitusMichaeleus A time being is measured in decades at best. You need a proper real army, the state in Syria just ended conscription. Equipment that costs money you don't have in an int environment were nobody can give you the mass quantities in short periods that USSR had to rebuild the SAA




BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed. It is no longer open. It is something the world has never seen before: a permissioned corridor run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, priced at $2 million per vessel, payable in yuan. Three ships transited in the last 24 hours. Three. Out of a pre-war average of 60 per day. Total throughput: 310,000 deadweight tonnes. Three percent of normal. Four hundred vessels are waiting outside the strait right now. One hundred and fifty tankers. One hundred and twenty bulk carriers. One hundred and thirty others. Waiting for permission from the IRGC Navy to enter a 5-nautical-mile channel between Larak and Qeshm islands inside Iranian territorial waters. This is how the gate works. A vessel operator contacts approved intermediaries with IRGC connections, submitting full documentation: IMO number, ownership chain, cargo manifest, destination, crew list. The intermediaries forward the package to the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command for sanctions screening, cargo alignment checks that prioritise oil over all other commodities, and geopolitical vetting. The toll is approximately $2 million per tanker. For a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels, that is $1 per barrel. Preferred currency: yuan. If the vessel passes, the IRGC issues a clearance code and route instructions. Upon approach, VHF radio hail, AIS verification, patrol boat escort. One ship at a time. Through the narrowest channel of the most important waterway on Earth. Iranian crude is still flowing. Approximately 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, mostly to China, at near pre-war levels. Iran’s own oil transits the strait it controls. The blockade applies to everyone else. Iran is simultaneously the gatekeeper and the primary beneficiary. The toll funds the IRGC. The IRGC maintains the gate. The gate generates the toll. The circle is self-sustaining. Now look at what is NOT transiting. Fertiliser. Gulf nations supply 49 percent of the world’s exported urea. Ammonia requires the natural gas that Qatar declared Force Majeure on and that Iranian strikes disrupted at South Pars. Effectively zero fertiliser vessels have received approval through the permissioned corridor. The IRGC is prioritising oil because oil generates revenue. Fertiliser does not. The molecules that feed four billion people are trapped behind a gate that only opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. The yuan preference is the structural shift that outlasts the war. Every tanker that pays in yuan instead of dollars establishes a precedent. Every precedent weakens the petrodollar architecture that has governed energy trade since 1974. The IRGC is not just blocking a strait. It is building an alternative payment rail under live fire. The $2 million toll in yuan is not a fee. It is a proof of concept for a post-dollar energy settlement system, stress-tested in the most extreme conditions imaginable: a three-front war with the world’s largest military. The world’s central banks are trapped by the same strait: the Fed cannot cut, the ECB is hiking, the BOJ is tightening. Six countries are rationing fuel. Japan’s 10-year yield hit a 27-year high. Slovenia has QR codes at the pump. South Korea is barring government vehicles one day per week. And behind all of it, 400 ships wait outside a 5-nautical-mile channel for a clearance code from the IRGC Navy, payable in a currency that is not the dollar. Twenty percent of the world’s oil supply. Controlled by a VHF radio call and a yuan transfer. The strait did not close. It changed ownership. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…


🚨בכיר ישראלי: מתקיימים מגעים לפגישה בין בכירים איראנים ואמריקנים באיסלאמאבד בירת פקיסטן בהמשך השבוע 🚨בכיר ישראלי: במסגרת המגעים לפסגה בפקיסטן נבחנת האפשרות שסגן הנשיא האמריקני ואנס יהיה הנציג האמריקני הבכיר 🚨בכיר ישראלי: ישראל ידעה שמתקיימים מאמצי תיווך של כמה מדינות כדי להתניע שיחות בין איראן לבין ארה״ב, אך הופתעה מדבריו של טראמפ על כך שהמגעים הללו מתקדמים ושלכאורה יש הסכמות על 15 נקודות








