the combat wombat

2.3K posts

the combat wombat banner
the combat wombat

the combat wombat

@guerrillawombat

mid-Atlantic multidomain marsupial

he/him Katılım Eylül 2017
210 Takip Edilen53 Takipçiler
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@LobeLog Dubowitz is obviously a hack, but the inclusion of the *UAE* in this list really gives the game away.
English
1
0
9
460
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@echetus soldiers taking morbid glee in killing their enemies, a thing which never happened until Ukraine started using FPVs
English
0
0
7
357
Stakeholder Consultant
Maybe the Russian high command is exhibiting the same disregard for the lives of common soldiers they’ve shown since the dawn of time. Or maybe… the Ukrainians are doing “The Most Dangerous Game” with POWs
Stakeholder Consultant tweet media
Melian Refugee@escapefrommelos

two things that “radicalized” me about this useless stupid war: 1) these videos are often posted with masturbatory glee 2) the victims are always uniformed but very often unarmed and without helmets… almost like they’re PoWs who have been released and hunted on video for sport

English
18
6
274
13.3K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@websterkaroon That video does represent a somewhat remarkable level of fluency in American popular/meme culture, especially compared to (for example) Russian propaganda tailored for Western audiences. But yes, AI slop does unfortunately work.
English
0
0
3
334
Alireza Talakoubnejad
Alireza Talakoubnejad@websterkaroon·
The biggest aspect of this conflict that I've seen dozens of random non-Iranian, non-Middle Eastern white people I know that don't follow the news that much talk about is the pomegranate juice Sepahi vid. Like people I wouldn't expect at all (they're all in their 20s and 30s). They all keep talking about it and are obsessed. Kind of depressing but I guess AI slop works
English
5
2
42
4.9K
the combat wombat retweetledi
barrier maven
barrier maven@glosseantics·
a couple years back i thought "ah, just like how it helps one gain a fuller picture to read the financial press, i should probably also be reading the military press." Big mistake. Actively makes you stupider.
English
8
9
1.4K
27.6K
the combat wombat retweetledi
Sasho Todorov
Sasho Todorov@SashoTodorov1·
CENTCOM told me Shaheds keep eating his KC-135s so I asked how many KC-135s he has and he said he just goes to NORTHCOM and gets a new KC-135 afterwards so I said it sounds like he’s just feeding KC-135s to Shaheds and then INDOPACOM started crying.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical

Iranian forces appear to have damaged or destroyed multiple USAF KC-135 tankers parked in the open at Prince Sultan Airbase in Saudi Arabia.

English
25
537
5.5K
223.3K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@andfogle Depends on what you mean by “direct” involvement. The IAF’s ability to generate strikes against Iran would be heavily constrained without access to the US aerial refueling fleet.
English
0
0
5
101
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@Dmg_Cntrl The nonsense inclusion of Japan is how you know this was a Chinese production lmao
English
0
0
18
332
Alexander Clarkson 
Alexander Clarkson @APHClarkson·
Which will also if it embeds itself as Iranian policy be a pathway to repeated cycles of warfare with Gulf states and external actors that will ratchet their way up the escalation cycle
Monica Marks@MonicaLMarks

So far this war is succeeding in making 1 of the top 5 energy shipping routes the private toll road of a country whose top military spokesman declared, just a week ago, that Iran will target “parks, recreation sites & tourist facilities” globally. That’s a horrifying outcome.

English
2
3
49
4K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@APHClarkson This is true, but the VLCCs which make up the majority of the global fleet generally can’t transit Suez fully loaded
English
1
0
1
68
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@maiamindel I would say LatAm elections moment but US elections are like that now too. Hemispheric convergence
English
1
0
10
1.7K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@POMAHMOBA I think their much larger neighbor acts as a flak jacket for them here, see all the “we don’t do that in Germany” memes
English
0
0
3
80
🇺🇦Луганський швайношиншил
I don’t think I’ve ever seen Czechs be called Reddit despite them being one of the most atheist countries, so much that their 2nd most common religion after Christianity is literally Jediism More pastafarians than jews is crazy tbh
🇺🇦Луганський швайношиншил tweet media
English
3
0
45
1.2K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@Miyhnea …which incentivizes Israel to (successfully) act to prevent the same from happening in the South.
English
0
0
0
119
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@Miyhnea Well yeah, Ankara isn’t Iran and they won’t be sending a division to the Damascus any time soon because they would get slaughtered. But I think TR military presence in the north of the country could somewhat constrain ISR operational freedom there medium to long term…
English
1
0
0
158
Mihnea/𒈪𒄴𒉈𒀀
Mihnea/𒈪𒄴𒉈𒀀@Miyhnea·
We talk of the IDF dominance but a key to it few mention is that there is nobody left on earth, even they were politically willing, to rebuild the lost armies and equipment in a short timeframe of a few years
Mihnea/𒈪𒄴𒉈𒀀@Miyhnea

@ThomasPierret @TitusMichaeleus A time being is measured in decades at best. You need a proper real army, the state in Syria just ended conscription. Equipment that costs money you don't have in an int environment were nobody can give you the mass quantities in short periods that USSR had to rebuild the SAA

English
5
12
155
10.4K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@Miyhnea I wouldn’t fully discount the Turks, but they aren’t going to rush headlong into the South under sporadic but indefinite Israeli bombing. Which, perversely, incentivizes the IAF to keep sporadically hitting a completely non-antagonistic Syria to maintain their free fire zone.
English
1
0
1
294
Mihnea/𒈪𒄴𒉈𒀀
Mihnea/𒈪𒄴𒉈𒀀@Miyhnea·
The specter of USSR personal dying was highly limiting to Israeli planning. Who will do this, or who even can do this today? China? Obviously unwilling and not at all committed to any anti-Israeli struggle. Russia? lol. Turkey? Getting desperate now
English
3
5
97
2.8K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@matthew_petti They’ll obviously learn at our expense, but it is pretty remarkable. ISIS had better FPV pilots in 2017 when the technology was in its infancy.
English
3
0
21
1.1K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@besttrousers “It is something the world has never seen before” and it’s just the Sound Tolls. Copenhagen had better sue for infringement.
English
0
0
1
271
Matt Darling 🌐🏗️
Matt Darling 🌐🏗️@besttrousers·
"BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed. It is no longer open." This is why it's important for economists to take Real Analysis.
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

BREAKING: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer closed. It is no longer open. It is something the world has never seen before: a permissioned corridor run by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, priced at $2 million per vessel, payable in yuan. Three ships transited in the last 24 hours. Three. Out of a pre-war average of 60 per day. Total throughput: 310,000 deadweight tonnes. Three percent of normal. Four hundred vessels are waiting outside the strait right now. One hundred and fifty tankers. One hundred and twenty bulk carriers. One hundred and thirty others. Waiting for permission from the IRGC Navy to enter a 5-nautical-mile channel between Larak and Qeshm islands inside Iranian territorial waters. This is how the gate works. A vessel operator contacts approved intermediaries with IRGC connections, submitting full documentation: IMO number, ownership chain, cargo manifest, destination, crew list. The intermediaries forward the package to the IRGC Navy’s Hormozgan Provincial Command for sanctions screening, cargo alignment checks that prioritise oil over all other commodities, and geopolitical vetting. The toll is approximately $2 million per tanker. For a VLCC carrying 2 million barrels, that is $1 per barrel. Preferred currency: yuan. If the vessel passes, the IRGC issues a clearance code and route instructions. Upon approach, VHF radio hail, AIS verification, patrol boat escort. One ship at a time. Through the narrowest channel of the most important waterway on Earth. Iranian crude is still flowing. Approximately 1.1 to 1.5 million barrels per day, mostly to China, at near pre-war levels. Iran’s own oil transits the strait it controls. The blockade applies to everyone else. Iran is simultaneously the gatekeeper and the primary beneficiary. The toll funds the IRGC. The IRGC maintains the gate. The gate generates the toll. The circle is self-sustaining. Now look at what is NOT transiting. Fertiliser. Gulf nations supply 49 percent of the world’s exported urea. Ammonia requires the natural gas that Qatar declared Force Majeure on and that Iranian strikes disrupted at South Pars. Effectively zero fertiliser vessels have received approval through the permissioned corridor. The IRGC is prioritising oil because oil generates revenue. Fertiliser does not. The molecules that feed four billion people are trapped behind a gate that only opens for molecules that fund the gatekeeper. The yuan preference is the structural shift that outlasts the war. Every tanker that pays in yuan instead of dollars establishes a precedent. Every precedent weakens the petrodollar architecture that has governed energy trade since 1974. The IRGC is not just blocking a strait. It is building an alternative payment rail under live fire. The $2 million toll in yuan is not a fee. It is a proof of concept for a post-dollar energy settlement system, stress-tested in the most extreme conditions imaginable: a three-front war with the world’s largest military. The world’s central banks are trapped by the same strait: the Fed cannot cut, the ECB is hiking, the BOJ is tightening. Six countries are rationing fuel. Japan’s 10-year yield hit a 27-year high. Slovenia has QR codes at the pump. South Korea is barring government vehicles one day per week. And behind all of it, 400 ships wait outside a 5-nautical-mile channel for a clearance code from the IRGC Navy, payable in a currency that is not the dollar. Twenty percent of the world’s oil supply. Controlled by a VHF radio call and a yuan transfer. The strait did not close. It changed ownership. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

English
27
22
712
47.8K
the combat wombat
the combat wombat@guerrillawombat·
@Mpolymer *If* these negotiations prove to be substantive, I’d expect a massive wave of IAF strikes against Iranian oil/gas infrastructure while they still have the operational freedom to do so. This is a near-worst case war termination scenario for them.
English
0
0
0
301