David retweetledi
How I lost $6,000 on Kalshi
🚨 Dispute with @Kalshi & @KalshiSupport 🚨
Kalshi resolved the market “Will Tesla release unsupervised full self-driving?” as YES, citing Reuters/Bloomberg articles and statements by Elon Musk and Tesla’s VP of AI claiming that “robotaxi rides without safety monitors are publicly available in Austin.”
Under Kalshi’s own contract rules, a YES outcome requires that unsupervised FSD be “released to the public,” meaning made available for public use (including via robotaxi). That still implies actual public access — not just existence, demonstrations, or executive claims.
As of the resolution date, the only publicly visible evidence of such rides appears to involve a very small number of vehicles (the exact number has not been disclosed) and specific individuals, including Tesla influencer @JoeTegtmeyer and @Tsla99T (a former Tesla employee).
Publicly shared videos also show these vehicles being actively followed by a chase car, indicating ongoing real-time oversight and monitoring rather than an open, unsupervised public service.
What none of the cited sources show:
• how a member of the public can hail a ride
• whether access is open or invite-only
• any public enrollment, pricing, or terms
• evidence this is not a limited or curated pilot
When I asked @KalshiSupport to point to a single source demonstrating real public access (not just media repetition of executive statements), they stopped responding.
If executive claims + headlines are sufficient to satisfy “released to the public,” then that requirement becomes meaningless and pilots become indistinguishable from releases — a dangerous precedent for event-based markets.
Tagging @FredLambert and @ElectrekCo — this may be an interesting angle for coverage: how a Tesla PR-driven robotaxi pilot, with unclear public availability, directly impacted outcomes on a regulated prediction market and caused participants to lose real money.
Happy to be corrected.
Still waiting for the evidence or a clear explanation of the standard applied.
English
