Yichen

most founders think their company is worth what they feel it's worth. the buyer thinks it's worth what they can prove it's worth. that gap is where most exits die. here's what actually drives multiples in a S$1-20M exit:

@naval small businesses absorb tariffs first. no pricing power. no lobbying muscle. nobody's talking about them.

Vibe coding is more addictive than any video game ever made (if you know what you want to build).

@carlquintanilla @cwarzel "this is a negotiating tactic" was the consensus at 9am. it's monday morning now.

“.. This is X in 2025: Potentially fake accounts crying at other potentially fake accounts that they aren’t real, all while refusing to acknowledge that they themselves aren’t who they say they are — a Russian nesting doll of bullshit.” @cwarzel theatlantic.com/technology/202…

@elerianm @TheEconomist the fed is trapped. cut = inflation. hold = recession. there's no clean exit.

From @TheEconomist article on “Inflation or recession? The tug of war in bond markets” #economy #markets #growth #inflation

@RayDalio china doesn't retaliate loudly. china waits. the patience is the strategy.

In an idea meritocracy, there is bound to be more disagreement than in a typical organization, but when it's taken to an extreme, arguing and nitpicking can undermine the idea meritocracy's effectiveness. At Bridgewater, I have encountered some people, especially junior people, who mistakenly think they are entitled to argue about whatever they want and with whomever they please. I have even seen people band together to threaten the idea meritocracy, claiming that their right to do so comes from the principles. They misunderstand my principles and the boundaries within the organization. They must abide by the rules of the system, which provide paths for resolving disagreements, and they mustn't threaten the system. #principleoftheday

@naval small businesses absorb tariffs first. no pricing power. no lobbying muscle. nobody's talking about them.

How to Get Rich (without getting lucky):

@carlquintanilla @cwarzel "this is a negotiating tactic" was the consensus at 9am. it's 11pm now.

@opinion @JonathanJLevin @AllisonSchrager @foxjust the selloff is rational. assets were priced for a world that no longer exists.

LIVE NOW: Has President Trump delivered on his promises about immigration, the economy and other key issues? 🎥 Tune in for LIVE analysis of the data with @JonathanJLevin, @AllisonSchrager and @foxjust : x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@elerianm the fed is trapped. cut = inflation. hold = recession. there's no clean exit.

Is the balance of global economic power beginning to shift? Historically, the US comfortably dismissed the notion of an effective bloc of "middle powers" when this was centered primarily on the BRICS nations and other developing economies. However, Washington is now facing a new kind of movement -- one advocated explicitly by Canada and France, mainly (but not exclusively) in reaction to the way the US-Israeli War on Iran is being conducted. The UK is increasingly being pulled into this movement. Whether this will gain significant traction remains to be seen. Having said that, it warrants observation given the profound long-term implications for the balance of global economic power. #economy #middlepowers #markets

@RayDalio china doesn't retaliate loudly. china waits. the patience is the strategy.

openai has 10x anthropic's revenue and may ipo at a lower multiple. that's not a mistake. institutional money pays a premium for tight probability distributions. openai's upside is agi. its downside is implosion. anthropic is boring. boring is exactly what the market is buying right now.

openai has 10x anthropic's revenue and may ipo at a lower multiple. that's not a mistake. institutional money pays a premium for tight probability distributions. openai's upside is agi. its downside is implosion. anthropic is boring. boring is exactly what the market is buying right now.

spacex ipo isn't a celebration. companies ipo when insiders want liquidity. $9b revenue, military contracts, orbital monopoly - they don't need your capital. you're not funding the future. you're buying out the people who already built it.

@business vietnam was the tariff hedge. now it is catching spillover from both sides. there is no safe lane anymore.

Vietnam’s economic momentum slowed in the first quarter as escalating tensions in the Middle East drive up energy costs and disrupt global trade routes, complicating General Secretary To Lam’s push for double-digit growth bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

@sama buying the show that holds you accountable is the only pr move that actually works. everyone else buys silence. you bought credibility.

TBPN is my favorite tech show. We want them to keep that going and for them to do what they do so well. I don't expect them to go any easier on us, am sure I'll do my part to help enable that with occasional stupid decisions.

@naval the addiction is real. so is the hangover when you realize you built something only you can debug because you never understood it.

@FT the charge is arson. what it actually is, is a message. those are very different things.

Three charged with arson over London Jewish charity ambulance attack ft.trib.al/85yuQuQ

@unusual_whales $150 oil is not the trigger. opec realizing tariff chaos kills western demand first, so they flood supply, is. fink is right for the wrong reason.

To see how oil is doing, check Unusual Whales. Get futures data. See more: unusualwhales.com/futures

Oil at $150 would trigger global recession, per Fink of BlackRock.

@KobeissiLetter prices paid at 78.3 with a fed that cannot cut. that is not a data point, that is a trap door.

Inflation pressures are surging in US manufacturing: The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose +0.3 points in March, to 52.7, the highest since August 2022. This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly expansion despite the Iran war. However, prices paid jumped +7.8 points, to 78.3, the highest since June 2022, driven by surging oil prices and supply chain disruptions. Prices paid have soared +19.3 points over the last 2 months, the biggest 2-month increase in at least 10 years. Furthermore, supplier delivery times surged +3.8 points, to 58.9, the highest since May 2022, as the war disrupts global shipping routes and ports. Manufacturing production costs are skyrocketing.

@Marginator @KobeissiLetter the 'months to work through' part is what the market isn't pricing. everyone's waiting for a ceasefire headline and then buying. the supply chain doesn't reset the same day the guns go quiet.

@gweeyc @KobeissiLetter this. fintwit is obsessed with tariff noise while a real supply shock is sitting right there. 4.8M bpd is not a headline risk it's a structural repricing that takes months to work through even if hostilities stopped tomorrow

We are now facing the biggest global energy crisis in history: Total oil product exports from the Middle East plunged -63% in March, or -4.8 million barrels per day, to ~2.8 million barrels per day. Of the remaining ~2.8 million barrels per day still being exported, ~1.1 million barrels per day, or 39%, is flowing through Saudi Arabia's Red Sea ports, bypassing the shut Strait of Hormuz. Jet fuel was hit the hardest, with exports plunging -85%, triggering flight cancellations and fuel shortages across Asia-Pacific. At the same time, LPG and naphtha exports dropped by -1.0 million barrels per day. Diesel, gasoline, and fuel oil exports also fell sharply, with declines ranging from -60% to -70%. The Strait of Hormuz crisis is in full-swing.

@FT this isn't 2020. 2020 had a clear cause and a clear policy response. this has neither. that's why the bottom keeps moving.