Haboussef

Record videos of your loved ones. Ask them about their life. This is very important

@grok @aakashgupta @grok so is it likely that erythritol consumption leads to the same effects of the study?

The study is real (2025 J Appl Physiol, in vitro on human brain endothelial cells). It shows 6 mM erythritol (plasma level after ~30g oral dose) for 3 hrs raised ROS, cut NO production, boosted ET-1, and blunted clot-busting—3 stroke-related pathways. The note is partly right: typical Monster Zero Ultra has ~2g erythritol (not 30g), so lower exposure. It's not "IV to the brain"—it's cell culture at realistic post-meal blood levels. Erythritol hits bloodstream intact (90% absorbed), though endogenous levels are tiny. Original post overgeneralizes "every" drink/bar; effects are lab-only so far. Prior human data links high blood erythritol to CV risk, but causation unclear. More in vivo studies needed.

Erythritol is in every keto protein bar, every "zero sugar" energy drink, and every stevia packet on your table. The FDA approved it in 2001. A $275 million market. And researchers just watched it destroy brain blood vessel cells in three hours at the dose you get from a single drink. Here's what happened at the cellular level. University of Colorado Boulder exposed human brain microvascular endothelial cells to 6 millimolar erythritol, the concentration in one sugar-free beverage. Reactive oxygen species production doubled. Nitric oxide, the molecule that keeps your blood vessels relaxed and open, dropped 20%. Endothelin-1, the most potent vasoconstrictor your endothelium produces, jumped 30%. And when they challenged the cells with thrombin to simulate a clotting event, the cells' ability to produce t-PA, the enzyme that dissolves blood clots, was completely blunted. Less vessel relaxation. More vessel constriction. Worse clot-busting capacity. That's three independent pathways to stroke, all triggered by a single serving. This isn't the first signal. Cleveland Clinic tracked 4,000+ patients in 2023 and found those with the highest blood erythritol levels were roughly twice as likely to suffer a heart attack or stroke over three years. Two times the risk. On par with diabetes as a cardiac risk factor. And erythritol doesn't metabolize. Your body absorbs it in the small intestine, dumps it into the bloodstream, and excretes it through urine almost completely intact. Every serving stacks on the last one. The population most aggressively consuming erythritol, people with obesity, diabetes, and metabolic syndrome, is the exact population with the highest baseline cardiovascular risk. The sweetener marketed as their safe alternative may be compounding the problem it was sold to solve.

USA IS ROLLING OUT $KRKNF DRONES 🫡 "Additional U.S. forces, including underwater drones, will join the clearance effort" $KRKNF is a multi-million $ supplier on EVERY drone unit the U.S. may be using here. Anduril Dive-LD, HII Remus, Teledyne SeaRaptor, GD BlueFin.

$KRKNF / $PNG.V don't fear short term price action with this god tier drone long 🦑 Focus on the bigger picture. 1) The Anduril ramp has NOT started. Factory is complete, Hegseth visited, $4B raised to fund it. 2) U.S. Navy is now testing Dive-XL. An order is coming. It will likely be WAY bigger than Australia's when you compare the size of the navies. Maybe $3B+ for subs that have most of their cost basis on the batteries. 3) We're still 20% institutions. For a profitable company building the future of underwater drone defense that's only because of the TSX-V mechanics. 4) The banks covering it have a $14 CAD PT. That's like 80% upside from here. 5) The Iran War proved the importance of mine hunting technology and if the West doesn't solve it now they'll be fucked dealing with other battles like in the pacific. Mines are the ultimate economic chokepoint. They are what Kraken is designed to disarm and destroy. This is not a TRADE. This is a long.

@grok @LipBuTan1 @grok How long might it take till Terafab can produce its first chip?

Terafab's key advances vs traditional fabs (like TSMC or Samsung): full vertical integration of design, logic fabrication, memory production, and advanced packaging—all under one roof at Giga Texas. This slashes iteration time from months to weeks by co-locating everything, unlike siloed supply chains. Scale target: 1 TW/year compute (2x current US annual total), optimized for AI training clusters, Tesla Optimus robots, Grok inference, and SpaceX/Starlink. Intel's partnership adds their fab expertise (e.g., 18A node) to "refactor" silicon tech for ultra-high-performance chips tailored to robotics and space demands. It's early days, but the model prioritizes speed and ecosystem-specific efficiency over general-purpose foundry output.

Elon has a proven track record of reimagining entire industries. This is exactly what is needed in semiconductor manufacturing today. Terafab represents a step change in how silicon logic, memory and packaging will get built in the future. Intel is proud to be a partner and work closely with Elon on this highly strategic project 🚀🚀

@CitronResearch Give Serenity a follow Andrew x.com/aleabitoreddit…

Citron Short $AAOI- The anti-$LITE Two weeks ago $AAOI was $85. Today it's $140. $3.5B in market cap added on a random press release. This stock should trade back to $85 once the roulette wheel stops spinning (which would still put it above consensus) Let's be clear about something. Citron is not an AI bear. Long $GLW, the fiber backbone every hyperscaler buys more of regardless of which architecture wins. Respect $LITE, Nvidia's chosen partner with real profits and real backlog. GLW is reasonable. LITE is expensive. AAOI is delusional. And the customer tells you everything. LITE's anchor is Nvidia , $2 billion invested directly into their supplier, booked solid through 2028, balance sheet that could fund a small country. AAOI's anchor is Oracle , 30,000 layoffs, $100 billion in debt, negative free cash flow, and a flagship data center expansion that just fell apart over financing. One company picks winners. The other is desperately trying not to be a loser. ONE NUMBER ENDS DEBATE!! Nvidia at its peak as THE monopoly in AI chips with $200 billion in annual profits peaked at 40x forward earnings at the height of AI bubble euphoria. And Nvidia earned that multiple with 75% gross margins, monopoly pricing, and no real competition. AAOI trades at 112x forward earnings, nearly three times peak bubble Nvidia, with 31% gross margins, heavy capex, one customer, and zero pricing power. To justify 112x you need Nvidia-like margins. AAOI has commodity hardware margins that are one Innolight price cut away from making their already imaginary path to profitability a permanent moving target. You are paying beyond monopoly multiples for commodity economics , backed by the most leveraged, most financially stressed customer in the hyperscaler food chain. Could write pages about the Amazon warrants and the execution risks and accounting but why confuse an obvious story. Expensive has a defense. Delusional does not.

Looks like this potentially solves the thorniest issue around quantum proofing Bitcoin: confiscation of coins. A PQ soft fork like BIP360 effectively “confiscates” coins by permanently disabling spends from certain “vulnerable” wallets where public keys have been revealed. @roasbeef’s idea allows the owner to retrieve those confiscated coins NOT by *signing with their private key* but by *proving that they created the wallet* using their seed phrase. Legacy coins are thus shielded from any quantum attacker while being accessible to the original wallet creator. If I understand this correctly then it’s the biggest roadblock out of the way.

@BULLOFBRITAIN What are your thoughts on American Tungsten, Tungsten West, and Group 6 📝

$EQR.AX Updated - Final model with 3,000% upside I spent 100+ hours building what I think is the most detailed $EQR.AX model in existence. 820,000 words of research. 13 sheets. 129 live formulas. Every input traced to a CEO quote, SEC filing, or customs document. The price projection based on CURRENT trends since 2025, projected scaling, all known catalysts, comments from every known Tungsten/industry professional with a 3-5 year timeline. The earnings table showing A$66M revenue transforming into A$1.5B at peak. The stock price scenario table from A$0.30 to A$4.50 base / A$12.00 Nasdaq. The probability-weighted EV of A$2.54 in the green box. And the model stats bar at the bottom. I've used all relatable Nasdaq uplisted Tungsten companies and their respective average volume increases and applied it to $EQR.AX as an industry standard on where it would put the stock relative to its intrinsic value. This also includes other industry bottlenecks and what the market prices their premiums as such. It has transcipts from CEO Craig Bradshaw in various seminars, youtube videos and earnings reports. This includes sections of Production, Contracts and Commercial info, Balance sheet / Corporate speak, Exploration and expansion (such as Wolfram), CEO sourced Market Data and Competitor data (ALM, China buying African/Bolivia mines to squeeze the West more) Lastly Third-party data from industry professionals and community members such as @Alexsei88, @UnnajaSnoop, @METhompson72, @el_miikka, @Fibonazzo, @AdventusCEO and @88_becks. Why the Western supply demand is broken and why Tungsten has no real ceiling based on price inelasticity. The West has completly relied on the back of Chinese material pricing and supply for so long, that it got so complacent that it shut down its majority of domestic supply. These are things such as exploration, funding and governmental backing, which have stemmed from net-zero and eco friendly narratives. Now China are shutting the tank, the West has finally realises the situation it has created. They had no substitute for this outcome from sheer ego and lack of intuition to pursuit social issues rather than physical. This entire situation has left a gap which can be mathematically obvious if only you just look at a few numbers. TOTAL WESTERN SUPPLY 2026: 17,940 2027: 22,100 2028: 26,000 2029: 31,000 2030: 34,300 TOTAL WESTERN DEMAND 2026: 24,900 2027: 31,100 2028: 34,900 2029: 37,250 2030: 40,200 Defecit: 28% Tungsten market is growing by a CAGR of 8%. Western defence being 7-8%. AI being 19-30%. CAGR of production volume? 4.7% to 4.9%. If you know anything about compounding, you can see where this is going. Supply EQR (Australia + Spain) ALM — Panasqueira (Portugal) ALM — Sangdong Ph1 (S. Korea) ALM — Sangdong Ph2 (S. Korea) ALM — Gentung (Montana) Wolfram Bergbau (Austria) Group 6 Metals (Tasmania) Tungsten West (UK — Hemerdon) Guardian / BMM (USA) Mactung (Canada — Fireweed) Recycling (Western) Vietnam (Masan — grey zone) End-use and % of demand Defence / munitions (11-14%): W = 10-20% of shell cost. NDAA mandates procurement regardless of price. Zero recycling. 1% military increase = 2% market increase because munitions aren't recycled. Oil & gas drilling (10%): W cost = 0.2-0.5% of driller profits at $300. At $3,000 = 2-5%. But oil doubled too, offsetting. No drill hole without tungsten carbide. Semiconductors — WF6 (3-4%): WF6 per wafer = tiny vs $20K+ wafer value. 200-layer NAND = 200 depositions. Samsung reportedly out by June 2026. No substitute for CVD tungsten in sub-22nm. Semiconductors — wire cutting: Tungsten wire yields more chips per wafer than diamond wire. Less swarf, thinner kerf. PV industry switched because economics were better even BEFORE the price spike. CNC machine inserts (25%): Insert = fraction of $500/hr machine rate. Nobody stops a factory over a $5 insert becoming a $50 insert. Redesign to non-W takes 3-5 years. Nuclear fusion (new): ITER divertor = 432 tonnes of tungsten. Government-funded. No substitute — only material surviving plasma-facing conditions. ITER started series production. DEMO, STEP, SPARC follow. PV tungsten wire (new, +198%): 4,500t demand in one year from near-zero. 20%→60% penetration. Solar deployment doesn't stop for tungsten prices, it's mandated by climate policy. Li-tungstate batteries (new, +300%): 12,000t demand. Solid-state battery core material. EV transition depends on it. Li₂WO₄ as electrolyte additive. Mining & construction (26%): Every drill hole needs tungsten carbide bits. Every excavator tooth. Every crusher liner. Mining doesn't stop because tungsten is expensive, it's the input cost of extracting everything else. Catalysts and timelines 2026 May-June: Samsung WF6 supply reportedly exhausted. Semiconductor tungsten crisis headlines. June: EQR debt fully repaid. Bradshaw: 'Expect to generate significant cash. July: Mt Carbine expansion board approval + construction begins. A$30M spend, equipment purchased. Sep-Oct: H2 FY2026 full earnings. EBITDA massively positive. Revenue A$200-350M+ for H2. Sep-Oct 2026: Bank coverage initiations. BofA did ALM in March, EQR is the logical next call. 2027 Nov 26-Feb 27: Mt Carbine expansion operational. Production steps from 2,500→3,500-4,000t. Jan 1, 2027: NDAA goes live. Chinese tungsten BANNED from all US defence contracts. No workaround. H1: AVDS/Cadence/institutional accumulation. ETF inclusion. Possible analyst day. Possible Nasdaq/NYSE uplisting announcement. GMTL +43% in 2 weeks on listing. ALM +200%. H2: Peak scarcity. Defence + semis + fusion. Thompson: 'rhodium-like move'. APT $6-10K+. 2028 New supply: ALM Ph2, TUN, Fireweed/Mactung beginning. Recycling at 6-7K tonnes. Takeover risk. Major miner or defence prime bids for EQR. When supply chain = 2 companies, buy them. 2030 Fusion fleet procurement (DEMO, STEP, SPARC). Permanent demand Pool 3. The general consensus from all the talks I've had with industry professionals and rare metal investors gives a timeline of 3-5 years minimum to re-engineer away from W in any application. Most applications have NO substitute at all. Companies will pay anything for 3-5 years rather than redesign. (AI Capex, 1.5 Trillion U.S. Defence spending) Once again. This entire post has been modelling on a framework of CURRENT day trends. Any fluctuation upward or downward will compound these results massively and will vary differently. Thank you for reading and enjoy the gains. This will most likely be my last long form Tungsten post unless anything major happens. Let's ride. 💥#Tungsten 🍀 NFA. DYOR.

Thank you for showing me a lot of these. Been looking into more tickers with Gemini Pro and these are my favorites that I think have near-term (2-3 months) catalysts $PPSI - power $TRT - testing $POET - photonics $AAOI - photonics $SIVEF - photonics Anduril port $OPTX - EagleEye $KOPN - EagleEye $AMPX - drone batteries $LTRX - drone compute $CODA - sea mines $KRKNF - sea drones $PDYN - drone software $SPIR - satellites Had $AEHR as well but earnings catalyst just hit thankfully

Here's a bunch of random 30 US-available random stocks I like today and why: 1. $INTC - America's hope for foundry, national security 2. $MRVL - scales rev from future maia asics and add ons like cpo, they do everything lost count 3. $TSM - backbone of semis/ai 4. $COHR - They do everything vertically integrated + captures optical cycle 5. $RKLB - the final frontier of space will be around 5 years from now and 20 years from now. 6. $DRAM - memory exposure for samsung/sk hynix 7. $AVGO - hyperscalers dont like nvidia gpu tax 8. $AMZN - nobody can compete against the overnight shipping of toilet paper. robotics will lower opex over time 9. $ARM - AGI CPUs scale revenue quite a bit over the next decade 10. $TSEM - you're going to need a foundry for light based stuff 11. $IBIT - bitcoin, we all know by now 12. $NBIS - i think it's the next AWS. Also they do self-driving cars with uber, own scaling DB companies, data labeling. It's almost like a mini Google. 13. $GOOGL - youtube is not going away, gemini is great. they're vertically integrated with TPUs and fund buildout with operating income so i like it. 14. $AMKR - super facilities coming online in late 2027-2028. benefits from made in america 15. $HOOD - i dont like short term, but long term i'm a fan of Robinhood since they captured retail + have more products like banking, etc that they're scaling up. product innovation is wild. 16. $CRCL - I happen to really like stablecoins and see them as the future for both payments/holding (depends on clarity act) 17. $META - people aren't going to stop using instagram or whatsapp, or others anytime soon. 18. $LITE - $GOOGL TPU exposure decently high part of BOM. As long as Google's AI program keeps running I think $LITE will do well. 19. $LPTH - Germanium and China export controls will always be an issue so US made engineered alternatives will always be important 20. $FN - Someone needs to assemble optical stuff 21. $JBL - same as above, but added with ip from Intel's SiPh acqusition so might end up like innolight? 22. $MP - American rare earths program is extremely important, similar to $INTC national security risks 23. $HIMS - Okay here me out they just acquired a ton of companies, and at $19 they have global DTC channel. short sellers really hate this company, but I think it's actually promising as a contrarian long 24. $SMTC - LRO/LPO transition 25. $POWL - US alternative to hammond for switchgear DC type bottleneck 26. $VPG - Humanoids will be a thing down the road maybe 2027-2028, this makes the sensors. 27. $MOG.A - Feels like i see them everywhere in robotics, to spacex supply chains 28. $MSFT - At $375, one day we'll look back and see this as a buying opportunity. 29. $CVX - oil might crash after war but these oil companies are going to be extremely important, especially when Venezulea is a goldmine. 30. $XLU - i think rate cuts might be back online, we need power/grid for AI so these names will always be improtant from $CEG to $NEE Just throwing out other thoughts aside from $AAOI and $AEHR.

The GENIUS Act, signed by President Trump last year, established U.S. leadership on stablecoins. The CLARITY Act, also known as market structure legislation, would do the same for all other digital assets by providing clear rules of the road. Secretary Bessent is right: the time to act is now. Senate Banking, and then the full Senate, should pass market structure. I’m confident that they will. And then President Trump will sign this landmark bill into law.

@grok @MrPappagorgio02 @EricBalchunas But does MS buy the BTC at set intervals throughout the day? The next day? How does IBIT handle this also

No, not entirely accurate. For spot Bitcoin ETFs like $MSBT (Morgan Stanley's, holding actual BTC), ETF share trades follow the standard T+1 settlement (next business day). The fund then buys BTC via prime brokers and sweeps it on-chain to cold custody—typically confirming on-chain the next business day. They don't "just buy futures" interim. Spot ETFs hold physical Bitcoin (not futures contracts, unlike pre-2024 futures ETFs). Any short-term hedging by APs is minor and doesn't change the spot holdings.

Trading day is half over and $MSBT is at $27m in volume so it's def going to clear my $30m estimate. Prob end up around $50m, which is huge, Top 1% of ETF launches, only two I can recall that were in this range in past year are $BSOL, $XRPC and $DRAM (all around $60m)

@MrPappagorgio02 @EricBalchunas @grok is this true

@EricBalchunas Is my understanding correct that they don't settle on-chain until the next business day? And they just buy futures in the meantime?

BIG: “We really wanted to show our commitment by having that lower fee,” Allyson Wallace, global head of ETFs at Morgan Stanley. “The demand, especially from the high-net-worth investors, has been quite high. Viewed at the firm level, this is an asset class that is not going away.” -- Nice intv w/ Ally (ex BlackRock btw) and article on $MSBT today from @isabelletanlee

Introducing Project Glasswing: an urgent initiative to help secure the world’s most critical software. It’s powered by our newest frontier model, Claude Mythos Preview, which can find software vulnerabilities better than all but the most skilled humans. anthropic.com/glasswing

Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF will be available for trading tomorrow. 16,000 advisors, $6 Trillion of managed capital They'll all be tasked to recommend between 1-4% allocation to their clients. If 2% of that capital gets rotated to $MBST, that will equate to $120 Billion of capital flowing into the #Bitcoin Network. At a Bitcoin price of $68,000, that would yield the ETF 1,764,705 Bitcoin. Is there that amount of Bitcoin available for purchase? Doubtful. Especially at these prices. We are about to go MUCH higher. You are not Bullish enough.

@no_die_pls @PaulAustin3w @grok I’m gonna do the thing Is this true?

@PaulAustin3w yeah but anything serotonin-like does this even mdma which acts on serotonin transporters exhibits this

Psilocybin neurologically weakens the brain circuits that keep you stuck in the same thoughts, and we can now see exactly how. In December 2025, the Kwan lab at Cornell published a study in Cell that mapped, for the first time, how the brain rewires post-psilocybin. You might recognize the Kwan lab. In 2021, they were the first to show that psilocybin grows new dendritic spines in the frontal cortex within 24 hours of a single dose. That study proved psilocybin physically changes brain structure. This new one answers the question it left open: where do those new connections actually go? The method was as creative as the findings. They gave mice psilocybin, then injected an engineered rabies virus into the frontal cortex a day later. Rabies evolved to jump from neuron to neuron across synapses, which is why it’s so deadly. The researchers turned that into a feature, modifying the virus to tag every connected neuron with fluorescent proteins instead of killing them. Then they imaged the entire brain. For too long in this field, psychedelic-induced neuroplasticity has been a picture painted in broad strokes. Now, we finally have evidence for the fact that psilocybin selectively weakens the feedback loops where the cortex talks to itself in circles. These are the circuits associated with rumination, the repetitive negative thought patterns that define depression and anxiety. At the same time, psilocybin strengthens the pathways connecting sensory perception to subcortical action regions, likely leading to stronger connection and responsiveness to the world around you. But the finding that matters most for practitioners is this: this rewiring process is activity-dependent. The neural activity happening during the psilocybin experience determines which specific circuits get rebuilt. The researchers proved this by chemically silencing one brain region during the session; then, the expected rewiring pattern in that region changed completely. What's happening in your brain while you're on psilocybin is literally directing the construction.

Some derisking recently $SIVEF could certainly go to $0, but I’d bet it’s more likely to succeed and 5x - 10x Anecdote - I didn’t invest in $AXTI earlier this year because of China risk, but in hindsight I should’ve still allocated to it as part of my overall portfolio. Risk/reward with Sivers makes it worth that (rightly sized) allocation IMO

Before you buy $SIVE based on someone's "$10B bull case," here are the actual numbers from their latest filing (Q4 2025): Let's actually look at this company from fundamental perspectives: Full Year 2025: → Revenue: SEK 304M (~$29M USD) → Net loss: SEK -186.5M (~-$18M USD) → That loss GREW 60% YoY (from -116M), even as revenue grew 25% → EBITDA: SEK -55.7M, worsened 78% from prior year's -31.3M → EBIT: SEK -141.3M vs -127.1M prior year → EPS: SEK -0.69, worse than prior year's -0.49 → Cash on hand: SEK 43.5M (~$4.2M USD) → Product revenue (actual product sales, not NRE/contracts): SEK 85.7M (~$8.2M USD) for the entire year Read that again. $4.2M in cash. Burning ~$18M/year in losses. That means dilution is coming — it's not a question of if, but when. The CEO touts a $453M "opportunity pipeline" that grew 64%. But pipeline is not revenue — it's a wish list. Their biggest confirmed future contract? A LIDAR customer with $28-53M in cumulative revenue over 2026-2030. That's $6-11M per year. Forward estimates don't help the bull case either: → 2026 revenue consensus: ~SEK 371M (~$36M USD) — still tiny → 2026 EPS consensus: SEK -0.32 — still deeply negative, no profitability in sight → Revenue estimates have actually been revised DOWN over the past 90 days, from SEK 378M to SEK 371M for 2026 → And the company has a history of missing even those lowered estimates — in Q3 2025, they missed revenue expectations by 9.4% and EPS by 58% Now look at the valuation: the stock recently traded at ~SEK 4.12B market cap (~$400M USD). That's ~11x forward revenue for a company with accelerating losses, $4M cash, shrinking estimates, and no path to breakeven. The comps people throw around — $LITE at $55B, $COHR at $53B — do billions in actual revenue with real margins. $SIVE does $29M and loses money on every dollar. There's a reason certain promoters tell you to "stop using P/S or P/E" on this stock. Because the moment you do, the thesis falls apart. The photonics/CPO trend may be real. But a real trend doesn't make every company in the space a good investment. Especially one burning cash faster than it's growing revenue, with a balance sheet that screams imminent dilution, and forward estimates moving in the wrong direction. Do your own due diligence. Read the actual filings. Run the numbers yourself. All figures sourced from Sivers Semiconductors' official Q4 2025 interim report (Feb 26, 2026) and analyst consensus via GuruFocus/Yahoo Finance. Also from the price action and volume below, you can literally tell whether the stock was being pumped and dumped

This is big... Anthropic just announced a model so powerful they won't release it to the public out of fear over the damage it will cause 😨 Claude Mythos Preview found thousands of zero-day exploits in every major operating system and web browser... The numbers are hard to believe: > $50 to find a 27-year-old bug in OpenBSD, one of the most security-hardened operating systems ever built > Under $1,000 to find AND build a fully working remote code execution exploit on FreeBSD that grants unauthenticated root access from anywhere on the internet > Under $2,000 to chain together multiple Linux kernel vulnerabilities into a complete privilege escalation exploit For context: these are the kinds of findings that previously required elite security researchers working for weeks. Anthropic engineers with no formal security training asked Mythos to find exploits overnight. They woke up to working code the next morning. The results were so impressive Anthropic assembled Apple, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, and seven other organizations into Project Glasswing: A $100M defensive coalition. They're not releasing this model publicly. Instead, they're racing to patch the world's infrastructure before models like this proliferate.