hallwaymonitor

The story of Ripple.

Hot take: There is a limited window of time, like any new industry, where a new tool appears and people don't understand it fully yet, and it's powerful enough to change your entire life, but not so powerful it's been completely taken over by corporate interests yet. And when this tool appears you have two choices: use it to skyrocket your life and take advantage of this TEMPORARY moment, or resist/hate/be angry/complain/, do nothing, and the moment is gone forever. These brief moments in time are when shifts in the game board happen. It happened with Crypto, its happening with AI, it happens with any NEW thing. These shifts in the game board allow people who came/come from nothing, to elevate, using nothing but DEMOCRATIZED tools, moving first, their creativity, and execution. Our take is that instead of poo poo-ing the tool, USE the tool, improve your life, try applying the tool to the industries/things you know best, get creative, and catapault your way into a new class. You'll fine the sense of fulfillment you get as you're building, growing, expanding, learning, elevating your life, to FAR OUTWEIGH any feelings of superiority you get by hating and rejecting the tool. If you don't use this time, VERY likely chance in the future, whether 5 years, 10 years, when you are older, have more family, more weight/responsibility, and the realities of life are much more tangible, you'll wish you had acted more during this time. You don't want to be filled with regret because you chose to hate/dismiss, instead of build/grow, which ONLY helps you and the ones you love. TLDR? Instead of hating/dismissing a new tool, use this BRIEF WINDOW of time to elevate/improve your life. The window is temporary and if you don't use it because you want to please a small niche of people who don't really care about your success anyways, you may very highly regret that decision. Disclaimer: Post written with care and consideration and in a good spirit. Please don't be hateful for no reason. This is to benefit those who these words get through to.

@ashwathbk Timeframe in less than 5 years.

@ashwathbk I predict that AI will pretty much replace those operative teams (e.g. at Infosys) who actually conduct regular changes in the IT systems. Basically the manager will just consult AI to do the shit in the system instead of the operative team.

Slavery still exists, it’s just called IT consulting now

Watch a team of humanoid robots running a full 8-hr shift at human performance levels. This is fully autonomous running Helix-02 x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

pleasure is to happiness what sugar is to nutrition

23 yaşında bi genç 60 yıldır çözülemeyen Erdös problemlerinden birini chatgpt 5.4 pro ile çözmüş. hem de tek atışta. chatgpt'nin soruyu çözmek için harcadığı süre 1 saat 20 dakika. işin ilginci ai, herkesin bildiği ama kimsenin bu probleme uygulamadığı bi formülü kullanarak problemi çözmüş. burada chatgpt yazışması; chatgpt.com/share/69dd1c83… bu da problem; erdosproblems.com/1176

@Route2FI Start practicing endurance sports such as running or cycling. Huge time sink. Rest days will be appreciated more no longer boring.

This year, I need to change something. I am so comfortable with my life now, and while that should be a good thing, nothing new ever happens. Weekends are usually great, because my friends are free from work. But on weekdays, I am so bored, especially now that there is a quiet period in crypto. Personally, I believe this is a bear market rally, and that we will get new chances to buy lower during the summer, which is why I am not going crazy on the trading right now. It’s frustrating to wait, but maybe the downtime is a chance to rethink where I’m heading. Anyway, seriously consider moving somewhere new. Maybe somewhere with people with a similar mindset, maybe join a crypto company if there is a promising product (salaried in equity only), or join a team in some form. Need to think more. Also wouldn't mind lowering my tax bill. Quite demotivating seeing so much disappear every year.

NEW - Germany now requires all men between the ages of 17 and 45 to obtain permission from the military before leaving the country for more than three months.

BREAKING: The US is preparing for a potential ground invasion into Iran that would last for up to 2 months, per the Washington Post. Details include: 1. Thousands of American soldiers are arriving in the Middle East for what could become a "dangerous new phase" of the war 2. Any invasion would involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, US officials said 3. President Trump has wavered between declaring that the war is winding down and threatening to amplify it 4. Discussions over the past month have touched upon the possible seizure of Kharg Island and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz The Iran War appears to be entering a new era.

New York’s proposed S08102 would force every internet-connected device to run mandatory, device-level age verification using biometrics or government IDs. This isn’t just about kids online—it builds a permanent, trackable identity layer across the entire internet.

Iran has a new Supreme Leader. It does not matter. The 31 IRGC provincial commands that control the missiles, the drones, and the airspace do not answer to him. Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader on 8 March. First hereditary succession in the Republic’s history. Rank of hojatoleslam. Never spoken publicly. Whereabouts classified. The Mosaic Defence doctrine, activated the moment his father was killed, placed independent firing authority in 31 autonomous commands designed to operate without central leadership. Pezeshkian promised strikes would stop on 7 March. They continued within hours. His government admitted the armed forces operate independently. This has rendered the entire Middle Eastern airspace commercially uninsurable. Not just Iran. The full regional envelope. Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman: all confirmed struck. Iraq: 67 militia operations against US targets at Al Asad and other bases. Lebanon: 210 Hezbollah missiles into Israeli airspace. Jordan: AN/TPY-2 radar at Muwaffaq Salti destroyed. The overflight corridors crossing Cyprus, Turkey, Syria, Israel, and Egypt are all within demonstrated range of a fragmented command network that struck six countries simultaneously in a single night. Lloyd’s, Allianz, AIG, and Munich Re must now calculate the probability that all 31 independent IRGC commanders, plus Hezbollah, plus Iraqi militias, plus Houthi reactivation risk, will simultaneously refrain from firing at any aircraft for every minute of every transit across this envelope for the entire policy duration. The mathematics are explicit. At 99% daily restraint per actor, combined probability across 31 IRGC commands alone is 73%. Add the proxy constellation: below 60%. Over a week: below 10%. Over a 30-day policy: approaching zero. One rogue provincial launch into a civilian corridor resets the actuarial clock entirely, because it proves the counterparty model was wrong and exposes reinsurer capital to unlimited tail risk on every active policy. This is why war-risk surcharges have surged 400 to 900% across the full corridor from Larnaca to Muscat, Ankara to Aden. Why 30,000 flights are cancelled. Why Cathay Pacific charges AUD $39,492 for business-class Sydney to London. Why air-freight through the Gulf, Iraq, and eastern Mediterranean has collapsed. Here is why it cannot stop. The 31 commands will continue attacking US bases at Al Udeid, Al Dhafra, and Camp Arifjan as long as US and Israeli strikes on Iran continue. Each commander operates under pre-delegated authority requiring zero coordination with Tehran. Every bomb dropped generates the next retaliatory launch from a commander who needs no permission and has no superior capable of ordering restraint. The war feeds the doctrine. The doctrine feeds the insurance withdrawal. The withdrawal feeds the airfare explosion. The loop has no internal off-switch. After 26 months of Houthi attacks from a single actor with unified command, shipping premiums never returned to baseline. Aviation reinsurers now face autonomous actors spanning an airspace across three continents with no unified command, no central override, and a Supreme Leader whose military does not recognise his operational authority. The market prices this lasting weeks. The actuarial mathematics, modelled from Beirut to Bandar Abbas, say it lasts until every autonomous actor is neutralised, individually negotiated with, or verifiably disarmed. The sky is not closed by missiles. It is closed by the mathematical impossibility of insuring safe passage through airspace governed by 31 autonomous commands, a proxy constellation, and an escalation loop that strengthens with every strike. Full analysis here! open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

BREAKING: “If you can tolerate oil at more than $200 per barrel, continue this game.” Brigadier General Ebrahim Jabari, adviser to the IRGC commander, said this on 8 March directly to the Gulf states hosting American bases. Brent is already trading at $103 to $108 with intraday spikes touching $115 to $119. WTI has breached $100. The IRGC is not threatening from a position of weakness. It is threatening from a position where the Strait is already commercially closed, seven P&I clubs have already withdrawn, and 31 autonomous provincial commands are already striking targets across six Gulf countries simultaneously without requiring a single order from Tehran. This was not rhetoric. It was a capability statement. Here is why. The IRGC maintains an estimated 2,500 to 6,000 ballistic and cruise missiles distributed across 31 autonomous provincial commands activated under Mosaic Defence doctrine after the 28 February decapitation. Each command controls its own launchers, stockpiles, and target lists. None requires authorisation from Mojtaba Khamenei, the new Supreme Leader who has never spoken publicly, or from Pezeshkian whose ceasefire promise was overridden within hours. Iranian drone production runs at approximately 10,000 units per month. A Shahed costs $20,000. It can reach any oil terminal, any desalination plant, any port, and any tanker loading berth in every Gulf state from a launch site the size of a parking lot. The $200 scenario is not about closing Hormuz. Hormuz is already closed. Zero tanker transits. The $200 scenario is about what comes next: systematic, sustained, decentralised strikes on the oil export infrastructure of Iran’s neighbours. Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura terminal. The UAE’s Jebel Ali port complex. Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi. Qatar’s Ras Laffan, already under force majeure. Bahrain’s Bapco, already struck. These are not hypothetical targets. Provincial commanders have already demonstrated the reach, the accuracy, and the doctrinal authority to hit them independently. The arithmetic is merciless. Hormuz carries 20 million barrels per day. Pipeline bypasses cover 3.5 to 5.5 million. Current deficit: approximately 15 million barrels trapped daily. If provincial commands begin systematically targeting Saudi and UAE export terminals, the deficit widens to include production that currently bypasses the Strait. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Petroline moves 2.5 million barrels per day to Yanbu on the Red Sea. If Yanbu is struck, or if Houthi reactivation closes Bab al-Mandab, that bypass disappears. At that point the market loses not 20 million barrels but 25 million or more. The 1973 embargo removed 5 million. The 1979 revolution removed 4 million. The 2003 Iraq invasion removed 2 million. The all-time price high was $147 in 2008 on a supply disruption a fraction of this magnitude. $200 is not the ceiling of a 25-million-barrel removal. It is the floor. Goldman Sachs raised its Q2 Brent forecast to $76 and flagged $100 if disruption exceeds five weeks. They have not modelled 31 autonomous commands with 10,000 drones per month targeting every unhardened export terminal between Kuwait City and Muscat while the Strait remains actuarially closed and the reinsurance market refuses to underwrite a single transit. The IRGC spokesman was not making a threat. He was reading the order of battle to an audience that still prices this war inside a legacy framework where centralised states negotiate, ceasefires hold, and oil shocks mean-revert. Thirty-one commands. Ten thousand drones per month. Twenty-five million barrels at risk. Brent already past $108 with no ceasefire counterparty in existence. And no one in Tehran with the authority to call it off. Full analysis in the link. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Guys, this is the next logical step from what has already started. Your phones are already listening to you 24/7. People have already invited Alexas into their home. People are buying AI wearable pendants that are always listening to you. The next wave of tech are these AI glasses that not only track what you see but track your eyeball movements and how long you linger on any object (which your phone already does). This is all data they are feeding into an LLM to build a 300 page dossier on YOU. The conspiracy theorists have always been right. The government, big tech, etc. absolutely ARE listening to you and they ARE watching you. You have to reject the surveillance tech. It is likely impossible, but you must do what you can. The least you can do is slow it down, minimize, and not invite it in. Remember, all this data can and WILL be used against you at some point in the future. You never know if you’ll find yourself on the wrong side of the powers that be tomorrow. If you do, they’ve got the data from your whole life. Any story can be manufactured. Any narrative told.

There is a key takeaway from Discord’s “Please don’t be mad at us” press release: The UK, Australia, Brazil, Europe, and *multiple* US states are pressuring Discord into mandatory ID verification. Their hand is forced. In some cases like the UK and Australia, they don’t even have the options to estimate your age. They MUST get the IDs. You need to pay attention to this. There is a global concerted effort to force mandatory ID verification and deanonymize the Internet. This is all packaged under the guise of child safety or national security for moral cover, but what it really is is a complete control over all narrative and the ability to censor, deplatform, silence, and even legally or physically harm people who speak out against the powers that be. It’s important to note that this is a non-partisan issue. This affects everyone, regardless of political affiliation. Whether you want to tell edgy jokes online or whether you want to protest ICE, these laws put you in danger. This is and must remain a UNITING issue for all people. You must make your voices heard and reject the big surveillance narrative and the panopticon-ization of society. Every time a law tries to pass, you must vote against. Every time a politician tries to run on this frankly evil rhetoric, you must vocalize your objection. You must chimp out about this. If the chimp is strong enough, it slows it down. Privacy is your most important asset, especially in the age of AI and surveillance. It’s your right to speak freely, whether you want to call Trump a moron or whether you want to say secure the border. It’s important that you are protected and free to do so. Reject mandated ID verification. Use other platforms if forced, keep resisting as long as possible.

Google DeepMind CEO shortened his timelines too, from 5-10 years to under 5. Nearly every informed insider now thinks the world as we know it will end in the next few years

Ignore the pizza orders. Ignore the gay bar index. Ignore the memes. Focus on the cargo planes. At least 9 Boeing C-17 Globemasters are en route to the Middle East carrying weapons, ammunition, and equipment. These are not passenger aircraft. A single C-17 carries 77 tonnes of payload. Nine of them carry roughly 700 tonnes of munitions. Over 112 transport aircraft have moved toward the region in 48 hours. Forty aerial refueling tankers repositioned in a single window. 120 additional combat aircraft deployed. The total US air power concentration in theater now exceeds 500 fighters and bombers, the largest buildup since the 2003 invasion of Iraq. You do not stage 700 tonnes of munitions for a negotiation. Now layer the sequence. February 19: Trump says 10 to 15 days. February 19: Fifty-plus fighter jets move east in eight hours. February 20: USS Gerald R. Ford transits Gibraltar. February 20: Trump aboard Air Force One says he is “considering” limited strikes. February 21: Hundreds of personnel evacuated from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. February 21: Iran designates EU militaries as terrorist organizations. February 21: Axios reports Trump has been presented options to target Khamenei directly. February 22: Graham publicly urges Trump to override advisers pleading against strikes. February 22: Nine C-17s confirmed carrying weapons toward the theater. CIA whistleblower John Kiriakou, who served in the Agency’s counterproliferation operations, is claiming his sources indicate a possible strike as early as Monday. His sourcing is unverified and should be treated as single-source intelligence with all the uncertainty that implies. But the logistics do not require his confirmation to read clearly. The hardware is moving on a timeline that is independently consistent with Monday through Wednesday execution. Here is what the logistics tell you that the diplomacy cannot. Diplomatic signals can be manufactured. Iran’s ISNA can quote unnamed diplomats claiming Washington accepted enrichment. Bloomberg can run the headline. Markets can reprice. None of it costs anything to produce and all of it serves Iran’s negotiating leverage. Munitions transfers cannot be faked. A C-17 loaded with GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators flying from Whiteman Air Force Base to Diego Garcia or Al Udeid is a physical fact tracked by satellite, logged by ADS-B transponders, and visible to every intelligence service on earth. You cannot bluff 700 tonnes of ordnance across an ocean. You cannot recall it without the world watching. And you cannot maintain it in theater indefinitely without either using it or suffering the most expensive loss of credibility in modern military history. The dovish argument inside the White House is: use this as leverage. The hawkish argument, now being made publicly by Graham after face-to-face meetings in Jerusalem, Abu Dhabi, and Riyadh: use it before the window closes. The market is pricing the dovish team winning. The C-17s are pricing the possibility that they lose. 407 kilograms of near-weapons-grade uranium. Zero IAEA access for 8 months. Iran rejected the 3-year enrichment halt. Iran rejected relocating material abroad. The deadline expires in days, not weeks. When the diplomats talk, watch the cargo planes. The cargo planes are not talking. They are flying.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Unrealized gains tax for Gen-Z: You buy a Pokémon card for $50. Someone offers you $500 for it. You say no. You love that card. You're keeping it. The government says: "Cool, but that card is worth $500 now. You owe us $100 in taxes." You: "…I didn't sell it." Government: "Don't care. Pay up." You don't have $100 lying around. So you're forced to sell the card you love just to pay a tax on money you never received. Next month? That card drops back to $50. Your card is gone. Your money is gone. And the government shrugs. That's a wealth tax on unrealized gains. They don't pay you back the tax... Now picture this. Your mom calls you crying. She has to sell the house she raised you in. Not because she can't afford it. She's lived there 30 years. It's paid off. But some website says it's worth more now and the government says she owes $15,000 she doesn't have. So she sells your childhood home. The kitchen where she made you breakfast. The doorframe where she marked your height every birthday. Gone. To pay a tax on money that was never real. Now picture the opposite. Your dad put everything into his small business. For 20 years he built it from nothing. One year the business is "valued" at $2 million on paper. He owes a massive tax bill. He empties his savings. Sells his truck. Borrows money. Pays it. Next year the market crashes. His business is worth $200,000. He lost everything to pay a tax on a number that doesn't exist anymore. Does the government give him his money back? No. Does the government give him his truck back? No. Does the government care? No. They sold this idea as "taxing billionaires." But billionaires have armies of lawyers, offshore accounts, and trusts. They'll be fine. You know who won't be fine? Your mom. Your dad. Your neighbor with a small business. The farmer down the road who's had the same land for four generations and now has to sell it because dirt got expensive. You're not taxing wealth. You're taxing people for owning things. It's like getting a parking ticket for a car you might drive somewhere someday. They want you to own nothing and be happy. To fund the fraud, waste and abuse of the welfare state they created. There is enough money. More tax isn't needed. It's all a lie. But you've been gaslit into believing this is a rich vs poor debate. I hope you understand what's at stake.

Be me, Dutch investor Netherlands approved 36% unrealized gains tax WTF does that even mean Put $1,000 into stocks Year 1: • Stock goes to $2,000 • Government: "you made $1,000, pay $360 cash tax" • MFW I didn't sell anything • Forced to sell shares to pay • Everyone else forced to sell too • Mass panic selling • Stock crashes to $800 • I have $440 left after paying tax Year 2: • Stock recovers to $1,200 • Government: "you made $400, pay $144" • Forced selling again • Price drops to $900 • I have $756 left Year 3: • Stock at $1,000 • Government: "you made $100, pay $36"​ • Smart money has fled Netherlands • I have $964 in stock • MFW I paid $540 in taxes • MFW stock is back where it started (0% gain) • MFW I only have $460 left • Lost 54% on a stock that broke even MFW the government made more money off my investment than I did Government: "Thanks for the $540! 😊"

BREAKING: 🇳🇱 Netherlands House of Representatives approves 36% tax on unrealized capital gains in stocks, crypto and bonds.