Chad Page

Puns for Educated Minds 1. The fattest knight at King Arthur's round table was Sir Cumference. He acquired his size from too much pi. 2. I thought I saw an eye doctor on an Alaskan island, but it turned out to be an optical Aleutian. 3. She was only a whiskey maker, but he loved her still. 4. A rubber band pistol was confiscated from algebra class, because it was a weapon of math disruption. 5. No matter how much you push the envelope, it'll still be stationery. 6. A dog gave birth to puppies near the road and was cited for littering. 7. A grenade thrown into a kitchen in France would result in Linoleum Blownapart. 8. Two silk worms had a race. They ended up in a tie. 9. A hole has been found in the nudist camp wall. The police are looking into it. 10. Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana. 11. Atheism is a non-prophet organization. 12. Two hats were hanging on a hat rack in the hallway. One hat said to the other: "You stay here. I'll go on a head." 13. I wondered why the baseball kept getting bigger. Then it hit me. 14. A sign on the lawn at a drug rehab center said: "Keep off the Grass". 15. The midget fortune-teller who escaped from prison was a small medium at large. 16. The soldier who survived mustard gas and pepper spray is now a seasoned veteran. 17. A backward poet writes inverse. 18. In a democracy, it's your vote that counts. In feudalism, it's your count that votes. 19. When cannibals ate a missionary, they got a taste of religion . 20. If you jumped off the bridge in Paris, you'd be in Seine. 21. A vulture boards an airplane, carrying two dead raccoons. The stewardess looks at him and says, "I'm sorry, sir! Only one carrion allowed per passenger." 22. Two fish swim into a concrete wall. One turns to the other and says "Dam!" 23. Two Eskimos sitting in a kayak were chilly, so they lit a fire in the craft. Unsurprisingly it sank, proving once again that you can't have your kayak and heat it too. 24. Two hydrogen atoms meet. One says, "I've lost my electron". The other says "Are you sure?" The first replies, "Yes, I'm positive." 25. Did you hear about the Buddhist who refused Novocain during a root canal? His goal: transcend dental medication. 26. There was the person who sent ten puns to friends, with the hope that at least one of the puns would make them laugh. No pun in ten did. 🤣🤣🤣

What’s messing with me isn’t just inflation… it’s the quality. Like how is everything expensive and still trash? Cheap stuff is bad. Mid-tier is bad. Even “premium” feels fake half the time. You can’t downgrade to save money. You can’t upgrade for peace of mind. It’s just this constant feeling of paying more and getting less.

Social media stopped being a net good when your feed stopped appearing in chronological order. That's when it stopped being a tool to keep in contact with others, and became a slot machine.

WE REALLY NEED TO NORMALIZE THE THREE DAY WEEKEND. ONE DAY FOR ACTIVITIES, ONE DAY FOR CLEANING AND ONE DAY FOR REST AND TV BINGING

I miss 2019 when there was no covid, no ai. When I could just hang out with people and believe they are nice. When I could just look at a picture without having to spend 10 minutes analysing every detail to discern if it was made by a human or a machine🥲

When the $SPX was below 6500, I forecasted that a rebound would come in early April, and gave you the structurally really important levels to monitor. When $FNMA was still under $5, I signaled that I was long, because — as I’ve been explaining since last November, and even more so since August — Trump will need the GSEs in the near future, and they will have to be recapitalized. This is a longer-term position. Regarding the Iranian conflict, I wrote that the temporal peak of aggression would occur during the March OpEx week, and that I expect the next wave in the second half of April. That’s why I flagged a short backwardation trade in oil, as front-end volatility was strongly bid. (These were free signals. I update the levels in my blog. Link in bio.) I continue to draw your attention to the three major risks: ▫️Japanese yen carry trade unwind risk, as Japan will be forced to raise rates. This is already clearly visible. ▫️AI bubble burst risk, since $NVDA is significantly over-leveraged, infrastructure has been massively overbuilt relative to end-user demand, current capacity, and future regulations. Additionally, TSMC’s latest earnings report already showed slowing expectations starting from Q2. ▫️Geopolitical risk, because the East holds inflation as a weapon, and China will not let this go. There is currently a diplomatic breather, but a new wave is coming soon. It will quiet down by summer, but in November China itself will directly threaten America along the First Island Chain, with strong propaganda attacks aimed at inciting unrest, dissatisfaction, and uncertainty inside the US. This has been well prepared, and apart from me, almost no one is talking about it. There is enormous information noise right now. Most people are either pretending to be smart or simply chasing the news and sentiment. I, however, already predicted these events and their timing last year — roughly since February — as they gradually unfolded. Read my previous posts (and stop asking grok everything. You have your own brain...) I will give one more signal when I see it… and after that, I’m done being active on Twitter😘

@subsonly69420 @VolSignals It's both. Don't (fully) trust any such service that offers anything but SPX and VIX.

@VolSignals So, it's the way Han's interpreting the Heat Seeker chart that is the problem? Not the charts Hear Seeker service provides?

Guy builds gamma platform Guy runs aggressive guerilla marketing campaign to generate FOMO One look at posts Does not understand dealer hedging

@sedelange @Rothmus TBF the used car market is pretty screwed up.

@Rothmus These same kids will finance a depreciating asset like a vehicle rather than save and purchase a used car.

@TechLayoffLover Huh... IMO the AI would be better used as a replacement for the offshore team (unless you have an A+++ one that Claude can't beat)

AMAZON PRIME VIDEO BLOODBATH 2,847 employees got the email at 6:47 AM PST "Your role has been eliminated effective immediately" Badges dead by 7:15 AM. Slack access revoked mid-sentence Senior engineers who built the entire streaming infrastructure. Gone The team that shipped 40% faster last quarter using Claude for code generation. Eliminated 847 contractors in Bangalore just got handed their prompt libraries and deployment scripts Same streaming platform. Same feature velocity expected 14 remaining Seattle engineers to "manage AI-augmented offshore delivery" The kicker: those eliminated seniors spent 8 months documenting every architectural decision into internal wikis Every code pattern. Every debugging workflow. Every performance optimization trick That documentation just became training data for the AI systems replacing them VP of Engineering sent company-wide: "This transition represents our commitment to AI-first development" Severance packages include mandatory 90-day non-compete clauses Meanwhile the Bangalore team already pushed 12 commits using the extracted knowledge base One former L7 told me: "I literally trained the AI that made me redundant" If you're at FAANG and not seeing this coming you're already dead DMs open for anyone who needs to talk

@QnatR13416 @TowryPeyton In terms of current tracks, just this one IIRC.

@TowryPeyton Nascar races on some f1 tracks too?!

F1 fans: “BUT THE TRACK LIMITS!” Meanwhile NASCAR:

🧵Oil, Strait of Hormuz - Thread (1/3) The most critical aspect of this war — about which very little is being reported — is unfolding in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, where Arab forces are continuously working to protect vessels. The second key flashpoint is the Saudi oil refineries in the KSA, which Iranian forces are repeatedly attempting to reach. ☝️Both are high-beta risks, but the second one in particular carries extreme danger, as it could take the Petroline pipeline out of commission entirely. The problem is that due to the intense information war, accurate data is not reaching market intelligence platforms🚩 As a result, the #market is unable to properly price the risk. #oil #IranWar #StockMarket

I have written a more detailed analysis of the $NVDA and $TSMC cases, which I link below. The post is completely free and accessible to everyone. 👉 tinyurl.com/msew75mw It is also worth taking a closer look at the #yen $JPY... In theory, the Takaichi-style fiscal easing narrative should have weakened the yen. However, given Japan’s current economic situation, this has instead created an intervention-bounded, “policy put”-defined range-bound tendency — representing a hidden, very fat left tail for the carry trade☝️ I expect faster yen appreciation in H2 (potentially reaching around 142), as inflation and political reactions are likely to reduce the economic tolerance for a persistently weak yen🚩 This, combined with the significantly underestimated #Iran risk and the quiet cracking of the #AI bubble, the #market’s short vomma risk keeps being elevated and increased☝️ (I also published a free post on the Iranian situation this Monday. Highly recommended reading — link in bio...)

🧵(1/6) $NVDA ER, TECH BUBBLE There is a slightly lot more in the #Nvdia earnings report than many ppl think. Let me dissect it for you a bit... During the January ER, the first cracks in the bubble already appeared, which they are trying to patch up with credit and the derivatives #market. Last autumn I already posted multiple times about the fact that the main problem with the #AI bubble is that 1) the vast majority of demand stems from infrastructure build-out, rather than end-user demand, 2) the useful economic lives of the developments are artificially extended (often, even up to four times reality) to lure in new creditors, 3) due to future regulations, most of the developments will become completely obsolete. (America likes to inflate bubbles according to Soros's playbook to generate as much wealth for itself as possible. Against Europe and the Eastern states, it can afford to do this, as it possesses the world's largest economic reserves and can amply hedge itself. Here in Europe the situation is completely different, but more on that in a separate post. It is no coincidence that I showed the chart where you can see the $SPX converted into euros.) 👉 x.com/alma271828/sta… 👉 x.com/alma271828/sta…

@AnthropicAI New Anthropic

We are rapidly losing the ability to communicate and access information anonymously online and leftists aren’t even talking about it. It’s so bad!

@VolSignals Yup, Something Happened on the SPX chain between 3:10 and 3:30PM, gamma around 6920 was intentionally flipped to break a pin and enable the rally.

CTA whipsaw leveraged ETF $15B bid into the last stretch and that's all mechanics all synthetic negative gamma drove a truck through *actual* positive gamma between 6900 and 6930 and now we see who's willing to say "I'll take it"

something really really ugly about all this when's the last time you saw the market gap and go 2% higher, outrunning all the call vols and skew finishes *higher* on the day? helmets everyone

I just got off a call with a friend in minneapolis I didn’t understand how bad the situation is right now, I don’t think any of us outside MSP do they were patrolling outside her window as I was talking to her there are thousands of them she (a white woman) now carries her passport with her when she leaves the house our call was interrupted by helicopters last year the ICE budget was $10B it’s now $85B this is coming to your doorstep soon the silence of CEOs and even Democratic leaders right now is shameful. if you don’t understand how 1930s Germany happened, this is how it happened. there’s nothing more unamerican. my grandpa manned a machine gun in the south pacific to fight this ideology. our constitutional rights are being shredded to pieces, and the powerful are bending their knee to it. i don’t care about your stance on immigration, if you support masked thugs terrorizing american communities, pointing guns at citizens and demanding papers, entering homes without warrants— please, take a hard look in the mirror and reevaluate the dissonance with your american values and the freedom your ancestors fought to give you.

After last Friday close, I warned for #volatility in my chat going into next week. First of all bcs everything is overextended: short vol and vvol trades are complacently crowded, cash lvl is also on record low, credit spread etc. while $SPX barely can make new highs meassured in foreign currencies as investors are rotating away from US #market due to the growing uncertainities. I covered it in-depth here: x.com/alma18499/stat… The second thing is that after #opex, dealer net delta exposure switched from short to heavily long, and they rebalanced their hedges (this is only a portion of the impact). Next week both vanna and zomma are priced to be negative downward and positive upward (on the vol axis, not spot!), that is a passive continous pressure while #volatility remains controlled, and #market is ready to re-short skew on Thursday as it seems now... we'll see, levels and dynamics are written in my post. And the third aspect is the most important one... it's BoJ❗️ I keep warning for BoJ and carry trade situation since pre-Christmas week. Households still expect price rises; inflation has been above target for years, yen weakness raises living costs and has become politically sensitive. The tone about import #inflation is what matters in terms of carry trade☝️(I covered this too in my above quoted post) $JPY On Thursday, we have BoJ meeting that is more important now than #PCE. And also note that we have gold up/defence up /japanese sovereign yields up, that signals extended long-term geo risk, higher fiscal/term premia in sovereign duration (JGB yields), and a less reliable cheap yen backstop as #BOJ normalization collides with fiscal politics, extended and even growing #inflation concerns and shift towards a 'closed' nationalist (gov driven) #economy regime. This rhymes with pre-WW2 era. #market literally reprices this new regime shift now. This regime-shift is what I was fcking talking about since last March-April, and the over-smartasses didn't believe it (and arrogantly bullied me). There it comes. (I know, back then it sounded crazy, bcs ppl don't know history, don't read enough and don't recognize processes from small signs.) Now ppl start to see it too, analysts are writing about it, with a slight lag. But at least I got a SB from X for the geo content... Me, I predicted it😉 Good morning... #stockmarket #riskmanagement #optionstrading #spx500 #trump #tariffs #stagflation #venezuela #oil #UkraineRussiaWar

@SxLongshadow sometimes AI = Actually Indians.

You're told that some of these things are AI and then it turns out its just overseas employed workers because its cheaper to pay them than hire a domestic worker. Not a single policy by Democrats, Republicans or so called "left parties" resolves this contradiction fyi.

@InsideOptions_ @nitou_cybrotter My guess is you'll get a handful more large condors in - if you can - before the people who beat you on Wednesday get the right setup and do this all over again.

@happysphere @nitou_cybrotter I agree with this, We felt like this was different because of that… So regroup and try again and willing negate this.

Merry Christmas, I wish nothing but success for all. Anytime an iron condor breaches we track the levels over the last 3 years and we build our quantitative model around this. This is the first time our series failed in over 3 years since CBOE released dailies in 2022, 1 series. you can’t backtest anything prior. So yes we are pioneers. Black Scholes options pricing formula uses implied volatility not future. I suspect these conditions offered perfect opportunity for range breaches. I didn’t expect this to be any different than any other time we traded. We have rules and followed the books. We don’t normally close trades because all stats are realized at the close, Often have seen markets breach and close back inside. This is how our long model works (the one that predicts 1SD breaches) But they don’t work together to complement short IC. The premise of our strategy is not about avoiding losses, it’s about generating positive expectancy. Positive EV in this strategy is accepting that these events will happen because it’s a probability based system , but if you started with x$ and doubled or tripled the amount, you take off principle and scale the rest with house $. In a nutshell, yes we are hurt but I don’t fucking give up. We will regroup and try again.