henry

@Quant_Morales p123 skill

I just built a custom Skill for Claude that knows the entire Portfolio123 platform. Every formula. Every function. The full API. Ranking systems, universes, screens, all of it. You can now ask Claude to write P123 formulas, debug your ranking nodes, build screens from scratch, or pull data through the API with Python. It's like having a P123 expert available 24/7 inside your chat. I'm giving it away for free. To get it: → Like + Repost this post → Follow me → DM me "P123 Skill" I'll send you the full pack.

Planting a flag for the archive: 2026: three rate cuts.

7/7 the death of software is a slow, grinding operational reality, not a viral event. age of abundance is the end state, but bureaucracy is the 9th wonder of the world. invest your time and energy accordingly.

6/7 citrini argues for "Ghost GDP," but in the short term, high compute costs are crushing margins for AI pioneers. the "AI Premium" often destroys enterprise value before it creates it. We are in the "heavy CAPEX" phase, not the "infinite margin" phase.

1/7 it feels weird to say this because i’ve been shouting the death of software and the age of abundance from the rooftops for 3 years. this will happen. but the speed of the crash is being wildly miscalculated. 🧵

@KamalMokeddem @macrocephalopod either you're being sarcastic, or you must not know that on the job performance is inversely correlated with a candidate's ability to answer these types of questions.

Candidate may have been bad, but those interview questions aren't that great either, especially if they are young. Questions with higher g loading, less knowledge based, would be a better filter. I've found some real gems over the years using the methods described here: "The Validity and Utility of Selection Methods in Personnel Psychology: Practical and Theoretical Implications of 85 Years of Research Findings" -Schmidt,Hunter

Interviewed a guy for a quant research job today. Couldn’t invert a 3x3 matrix by hand. Couldn’t derive Black Scholes. Couldn’t explain the in-place quicksort algorithm on the whiteboard. Just kept talking about “stochastic gradient descent” and “reinforcement learning” If you can’t do the basics, what’s the point? Obvious no hire.

@paulg you mean chirpy bulleted lists from @Julian Shapiro?

Presumably ChatGPT is trained on corpora of things written by humans, and yet it doesn't sound like any human I know. Is there a population somewhere of people who write in chirpy bulleted lists that I've somehow managed to avoid?

@Jeppez420 a true market wizard. what a legend

2026 Trading goals & plan What's possible to make in the markets is quite heavily based on the opportunity set in a given timeframe. That said I also believe that if you have a wide range of strategies with significant +EV(expected value) per trade/strategy and proper sizing it's possible to make significant % gains especially if you're trading a sub 8fig account. Goal: With $3M AUM I aim to make in 2026 over $20M profits net of fees. Meaning closer to 700% on AUM and considering I'll end up wiring out some it'll probably be closer to 1000% TWR. Now when I posted my 2025 recap I mentioned I'd start the year with $2.5M and wire out the rest. But what I didn't open up is my new approach moving forward: I will divide my trading equity between high risk accounts and low risk accounts. High risk accounts: Start of the year AUM $2.5M. On this equity I'll run my small cap algo + take my riskier discretionary trades. I expect high volatility on this equity and aim for a TWR in the range of +1000 to +3000%. Low risk accounts: Start of the year AUM $500k. On this equity I'll run the new algo strategies I'm developing for mid/large cap companies and ETF's. Volatility will be much lower with a max drawdown expectation between 10-20%. TWR goal here is in the range of +50% to +100% so we're talking about a completely different risk profile. My plan is to create significant profits with the high risk accounts and funnel those profits into my low risk accounts. Before this year I used to just wire out some of my gains to my bank account so that the money would be "safe" but moving forward my wire outs will instead be changes in my equity allocation towards my low risk accounts where I still aim to significantly beat the markets for long term compounding. In addition to the approach itself a significant difference compared to earlier years is that I've now wired out enough profits to provide for my family for >5 years if not for even much longer. So when I'm talking about trying to compound my high risk accounts I meant it in a different way than before - now I can actually do it without a second thought. I'm not risking our family's future anymore. I'm highly interested in what I can do in this respect. For low risk accounts I'm currently developing fully automated strategies and expect to take first trades before end of January. By the end of Q1 I aim to have a portfolio of >30 strategies running online. This part of my trading will not be the main contributor for 2026 but looking forward towards the next decade I expect a significant portion of my profits to come from this area. And then one of the main limiting factors of my discretionary trading: I will continue to prioritize my time away from the screens high. I've got many priorities & goals outside of trading that will not happen unless I make sure my screentime stays low enough. We only live once and trading is not the only thing I want to do. At 37 years I'm not that young anymore so I can't postpone my other goals forever. Just to give an idea I'm aiming to spend on average <3 hours per day at the screens for trading this year. As always it's impossible to know what the markets bring and how I or my algo strategies manage that. But honestly the monetary goal I set in this post is lower than what I actually have in my mind. Only time will tell how things will end up, and one of the most dangerous things a trader can have is overconfidence. Let's see. At least one thing is certain: I love this game 😎

@deus_trader well done sir👍

Just quick status update on my options-only trading. The "Daily Change" shown by my broker (Schwab) seems totally off, as they can't calculate the previous day's value of my account (all options). Hitting my "account high", which may seem great, but I'm not too happy as I've botched several exits that were in $400K profit ( $SMCI and $UNH) which later resulted in large drawdown (from missed profit, not actual losses). $SMCI started falling in Feb on the day I was setting up to exit. Was hoping for a brief spike for exit orders to go through, so I kept adjusting lower, but it just kept dropping. On $UNH I simply missed the earnings, otherwise I'd exit right before. The extreme alpha saves me from my slopiness. Certain trades were nearly guaranteed (like $SPX options) but I didn't have much margin left, made "only" $20K but the capacity was likely $100M+ (if I had the capital). Now I'm also largely up on $ULTA, $UNH, $MSFT, and a few other plays. At the same I'm not trading much. Got busy remodeling a rental property, while I'm also buried in my science project at x.com/deusexphysicist. I went from analyzing physics to analyzing the nature of geometry, then the nature of math itself - and got specific answers. So now I'm also working on another paper on the nature of mathematics. It all takes more time than I'd like, but the insight that shows up is extremely profound. It confirms bits and pieces from variety of math, geometry and physics theories, so in a way everyone is right, but no one got the full picture. It's also obstructed by the fact that human (invented) math is flawed, and different from the math used by nature (discovered). Nature uses a single axiom based on valueless constant (one could pick 42 as its value just for kicks). Various frameworks handle the flaws differently, just any approach that fixes one problem introduces another. But pretty soon we'll have math, geometry and physics solved all at once.

@ohmzeus crazy that TradFi copied you. we're now in the TradFi Ohm forks cycle with BTC and SOL Treasury companies everywhere.

The consensus mechanism has always been a weakness of Solana's. Now the leader again (no pun intended) with Alpenglow.

@Bthemoon2030 @_ALTBG the moment TradFi figured out how bonding in @OlympusDAO works?

A Deeper dive into: The @_ALTBG BTC Bond’s Embedded Optionality and Its Impact on $ALTBG’s Balance Sheet For $ALTBG followers, a lesser understood aspect of the BTC-denominated convertible bonds is the embedded optionality and how it transforms the company’s balance sheet into a dynamic, Bitcoin-optimized instrument. This is a financial engineering feat that even sophisticated investors might not fully appreciate (if you ask me). 🔍 What Most Don’t Understand: The BTC-denominated convertible bonds (Tranche 1: €48.6M, ~600 BTC; Tranche 2 possible: €73m, act like a hybrid financial instrument: debt repayable in BTC with an embedded call option on $ALTBG’s equity. This structure gives bondholders (e.g., @adam3us, Fulgur Ventures) a choice: convert into shares at a fixed price (€0.544 for Tranche 1, €0.707 for Tranche 2) or receive BTC at maturity (e.g., 2030 for Tranche 1. Here’s why this is a masterstroke: - Embedded Call Option: The conversion feature is akin to a call option on $ALTBG shares. If the stock price exceeds the conversion price (e.g., €0.707 for Tranche 2, while trading at €2.50 today), bondholders can convert, capturing the upside (e.g., €2.50 - €0.707 = €1.793 per share gain). This makes the bond attractive to Bitcoinnative investors like @adam3us , who benefit from either BTC repayment or equity upside. - Balance Sheet Optimization: For $ALTBG, the bonds are recorded as debt (in BTC) but don’t require fiat cash. If converted, the debt is extinguished, and $ALTBG issues shares, boosting equity without cash repayment. If not converted, $ALTBG repays in BTC, preserving fiat liquidity. This aligns liabilities with their BTC-heavy asset base, reducing currency mismatch risk. - Volatility Harnessing: The optionality lets $ALTBG indirectly monetize Bitcoin’s volatility. If BTC’s price surges, driving $ALTBG’s stock price higher (stock up 554% in 3 months, partly tied to BTC holdings), bondholders are more likely to convert, reducing $ALTBG’s BTC repayment obligation and locking in equity financing at favorable terms. If BTC’s price drops, bondholders may hold to maturity, and $ALTBG repays the fixed BTC amount, unaffected by fiat value declines. 💡 Why It’s a Big Deal: - Risk-Adjusted Financing: The bonds shift BTC price risk to bondholders while giving $ALTBG flexibility to manage its treasury. If BTC appreciates, conversion is likely, reducing debt and boosting equity. If BTC depreciates, $ALTBG repays in BTC, avoiding fiat losses. - Shareholder Value Amplification: By using BTC-denominated debt to acquire more Bitcoin (e.g., 620 BTC held, 709.8% BTC yield YTD), $ALTBG increases Bitcoin per fully diluted share (currently ~333 sats per share) insanely faster. - Pioneering Model: This structure is a “world first” for a public company, as Alexandre Laizet noted. It blends Bitcoin’s scarcity with equity optionality, creating a balance sheet that thrives on crypto market dynamics while shielding $ALTBG from traditional debt risks. 📊-denominated convertible bonds turns their balance sheet into a Bitcoin-optimized machine, leveraging equity upside and BTC’s scarcity while dodging fiat debt traps. Even $ALTBG fans might not realize how this structure lets the company surf Bitcoin’s volatility to fuel growth, setting a blueprint for crypto-native corporate finance. NFA, may be wrong. Just my findings. If I am off I hope @AlexandreLaizet or @adam3us can adjust. 🫡

@JosephPolitano is Canada -1.4% or 8.7%

British (+0.7%) and Japanese (-0.2%) Q1 GDP data came in today, which means another update to my G7 GDP growth chart Here's each country's cumulative increase in real GDP, since just before the pandemic: 🇺🇸 +12.9% 🇨🇦 +8.7% (thru Q4) 🇮🇹 +5.9% 🇬🇧 +4.1% 🇫🇷 +3.7% 🇯🇵 +0.6% 🇩🇪 +0.0%

@johnrushx amazing to see. let's goooooo I'm in.

I'm announcing my new mission, Until today, My goal in life was to try EVERYTHING:::: 1) Tried b2c, mobile apps, hardware, robots, IOT, e-commerce, b2b, enterprise, saas, agents, directories, courses, no code, wrappers, freelancing, running an agency, outsourcing... 2) Run several startups, each doing $1M+ ARR. 3) Run many VC-backed startup. 4) Run deep tech startups with a co-founder & a team of devs. 5) Run multiple SaaS & directories solo. 6) Run multiple AI agents in duet with co-makers. 7) Bought and Sold startups. > Did many of the above points simultaneously 🥴 8) Worked as a taxi driver, security guard, mover, teacher, bartender, software developer, PM, CEO, CTO, Designer. 9) Entered Startuplab, theHub, 500 startups & Alchemist accelerators 10) Raised pre-seed, seed, series A. 11) Self funded. 12) Bootstrapped. 13) Tried Islam, atheism and Christianity 14) Tried being a liberal and conservative 15) Lived in the west, east, south and north (25% of my life each). 16) Grew up on a farm, lived in a big city, small town, village, downtown, outside of town, house, villa, apartment. 17) Married, divorced, have many kids 18) Semi pro in Judo, Football and Pingpong, amateur in Volleyball & Tennis 19) Have a driving license for trucks and busses 20) Dated European, Slavic, Asian, African, Latino, and Arabic women 21) Lived on $50/month and $50k/month 22) Only used public transport for a few years, then only a scooter, then only a bicycle, and then only a car. 23) Been fat, fit, hacked and average. 24) Drunk, smoked, partied. 25) Built a house, playground, furniture... 26) Spoke/Thought in 3 different languages (33% of my life each) 27) Learned to sing and play guitar 28) Leaned to paint 29) Built my first AI neural net in 2008. 30) Studied CS, AI and UX in uni 31) Dropped out of university 32) Studied in a public school in the ghetto where only two classmates survived to this day 33) Studied in another school in the village, where we'd go to school on horses. That's how I ended my "Pre-training" and reinforcement learning stages. WHAT's Next: From today(not literally today ofc) and on, my next goal in life is to change the startup world by moving the wealth FROM vc-backed corporations TO bootstrappers. I'm doing my job - by sharing everything I know, with detailed examples, and showing by doing - by building SaaS, Nocode tools, Launchpads and AI Agents for busy founders, to help them outcompete entire organizations - by educating people about AI and sharing my predictions & analysis Every day, I get messages from founders thanking me for this. I see their progress and success, it warms my heart and gives me more energy to continue my mission. My goal is to automate my org to the level where it's the most automated org on earth. Then, I wanna share my blueprint, knowledge, and tools with fellow bootstrapped founders so that we together could take over the software world and make it more decentralized and fair. Instead of 50,000 billion-dollar corporations owning the whole market, we can have 50 million bootstrappers owning it. And I'll do all I can to get as close to this goal as possible. Also, I wanna create an alliance similar to the one YC founders have, where they buy from each other, promote each other, integrate with each other, and fund each other.... I wanna do the same for bootstrappers. Who is in?

@JacobTrebil @garrytan walking through 3 blocks of tenderloin while carrying an expensive canon DSLR was quite the lesson. what are you doing on tenderloin?!

Tenderloin turned into real life GTA. Chased by 40 Tenderloin randoms. Sniped by a beer bottle. @garrytan can you fix this?

@verdadcap hey Dan I have a working implementation of this for institutional clients. it's actually simpler than you think. you can backtest a series of loss thresholds. everytime losses exceed your threshold you sell and buy highest ranked asset from your replacement basket. happy to chat

I'm working on incorporating tax loss harvesting into a quant strategy. Has anyone done this before who could point me to best ways to get started/ good papers/ people to talk to?