JD
420 posts
JD
@heredity
Lawyer. I follow technology and military matters.
USA Katılım Aralık 2008
125 Takip Edilen34 Takipçiler
@HimarsoClock @qmerty94729 @zhao_dashuai These are fragmentation warheads.
They do not rely on a “direct hit.” People are thinking of a “hit-to-kill” or kinetic warhead, which this is *not*.
That’s probably most of the confusion.
The shrapnel causes varying degrees of damage.
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No wonder why Iranian air defense was able to detect, track, lock-on and damage the F-35.
Just look at the bumpy underbelly of the F-35, those little bumps are perfect radar reflectors.
The F-35 being bloated (fat), also causes issues with cooling, making them more detectable by infrared sensors.
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@zhil_arf Can you name a singe territory since the founding of the PRC that China has used military force to conquer and keep?
No?
(There is one military conquest, but probably most are not aware of it).
China is not going to use force unless compelled to. They haven’t been compelled.
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Murphy's Law suggests we should assume China will invade Taiwan.
China doesn't really want to invade Taiwan. The externalities are too big. Unfortunately, humans are retarded, things often go wrong, and China will probably invade Taiwan and it'll be a mistake in hindsight.
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@RAlbackup @teortaxesTex Silly to seriously suggest investments need perfect 100% success.
We don't live in a video game world. BRI is a real-world trillion dollar development with many successes (that you don’t hear about), but also many failures that get all the publicity.
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@teortaxesTex Is that not exactly what has been happening though? China's investments are either outright repossessed (Panama ports, UK steel) or destroyed (Balochistan CPEC, Myanmar pipeline, Congolese mines today). The cope is that China "plays the long game" and these just don't matter.
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Most Westoid analysis of BRI assumes that Chyna is both evil and retarded. They invest billions into eg Africa, but it's "predatory", but Africans can trivially seize assets and Chyna can't actually do anything about it.
I guess that's how you have to think to still feel smug.
LoLNothingMatters@DastDn
I remain deeply curious about the long-term viability of Beijing's New Model Imperialism. What exactly happens when the third world countries can't pay, won't adhere to the predatory contract, nationalize the properties? Does China send in the troops?
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@JeffBoeker @136Division What do you suppose it means that it's entirely possible that CHINA is correct in assertion of sovereignty, and NOT the Philippines?
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@JeffBoeker @136Division Do you understand the distinction between maritime responsibilities on one hand and *SOVEREIGNTY* on the other?
UNCLOS is about maritime (literally "law of the sea") issues, NOT sovereignty.
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I think we should get along well. If no, what leverage do you think you guys have to negotiate with us?
Stanzin Dorje@StanzinDorje5
Across Philippines, concerns are growing over China’s expanding footprint & hooliganism. From the South China Sea to Southeast Asia, Beijing’s playbook is becoming familiar: influence operations, strategic infiltration, and pressure tactics disguised as cooperation. @InsightGL
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@JeffBoeker @136Division Also it’s not exactly “The Hague” which is commonly understood to be the ICJ (International Court of Justice).
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@JeffBoeker @136Division UNCLOS has nothing to do with ownership/sovereignty of islands.
So no, that’s not how any of this works.
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@MbdMbd29924908 @SpoxCHN_LinJian It’s called a “successor state.”
The PRC is successor to ROC, which was itself successor to Qing-China.
As successor state, PRC is government of Taiwan.
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台湾自古以来就是中国领土，过去、现在和将来都绝无可能成为什么国家。台湾回归中国是中国人民抗日战争胜利成果，也是二战胜利果实。《开罗宣言》、《波茨坦公告》、《日本投降书》、联大第2758号决议等一系列国际法律文件都已将台湾地位牢牢锁定。任何在国际上制造“两个中国”“一中一台”的图谋都注定失败。
民进党当局顽固坚持“台独”分裂立场，是破坏台海和平稳定的祸根乱源。事实一再证明，国际社会反对“台独”分裂的立场越鲜明，坚持一个中国原则的立场越坚定，台海的和平稳定就越有保障。
台湾问题是中国的内政，是中国核心利益中的核心，这一红线不容逾越或踩踏。我们绝不允许任何人、任何势力把80多年前早已光复的台湾再次从中国分裂出去。国际社会已形成坚持一个中国的压倒性共识。越来越多的国家和中国站在一起，不仅重申坚持一个中国原则、承认台湾是中国的领土，还明确反对一切“台独”分裂行径，支持中国的统一大业。这充分说明，反“独”促统顺应时代大势，也符合国际期待。解决台湾问题、实现祖国完全统一的历史进程不可阻挡。顺之者昌，逆之者亡。
Mao Ning 毛宁@SpoxCHN_MaoNing
FM Wang Yi: Taiwan has been an integral part of China since ancient times. It never was, is not, and never will be a country. Its return to China is a victorious outcome of the Chinese People’s War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression and the Second World War. Its status has been definitively fixed by a series of international legal instruments, including the Cairo Declaration, the Potsdam Proclamation, Japan’s Instrument of Surrender, and Resolution 2758 of the U.N. General Assembly. Any attempt to create “two Chinas” or “one China, one Taiwan” is doomed to fail. Resolving the Taiwan question and realizing the complete reunification of our motherland is a historic process that cannot be stopped. Those who support it are on the right side of history; those who defy it shall perish.
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@SecondRingSZN Maybe you realize by now the negotiating tacit of the US?
Cut a deal, reap benefits, then reneg or change the terms as the US sees fit. The US isn’t an honest dealer.
Taiwan/ROC was already sold out in the 1970s.
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We all know Trump is going to China in a few weeks to sell Taiwan for a good price
₦₳V𝚜𝚝é𝚟𝚊 🇷🇺 ᴢ@Navsteva
If China moved on Taiwan, and I am not saying they would, or even want to, what would the U.S. have left to "defend" Taiwan?
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@SecondRingSZN Although this idea did come up previously (referenced in leaked Hilary Clinton email):
nytimes.com/2011/11/11/opi…
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@SecondRingSZN No he’s not going to sell Taiwan. Even if he did (which he won’t), he or Congress would reneg on it.
Why set up your followers for a huge let down?
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@Object_Zero_ @teortaxesTex Britain is worse. A has-been living vicariously off American hegemony.
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might be a shitpost, but this is what Americans are supposed to feel like after bombing another non-nuclear shithole. Just endless vile power-trip.
Of course, Chinese position is unchanged since 2021:
美国没有资格居高临下同中国说话
Object Zero@Object_Zero_
The message should be loud and clear by now, as if it wasn’t already. If you go hot with USA, all your leadership will be eliminated by sunset, and without any fallout. Nobody can hide behind an army. No military offers any semblance of protection from POTUS. Their exquisite weapons and SIGINT are completely unmatched, and the strategic uncertainty around what they might have put into orbit, or some other place, is just terrifying, as they clearly have the means. America has no peers. China should be waking up to the fact they are about to receive their one and only ultimatum.
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@exitIiquidity @DoggyDog1208 @alreadydawn @okaythenfuture Over the LONG term if China’s fertility rate stays below replacement level of 2.1, then obviously the population will begin to decline.
Not sure how countries like China will address this. Japan is ahead of the trend and appears to be accepting this reality.
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@exitIiquidity @DoggyDog1208 @alreadydawn @okaythenfuture Reasons population grew during “1 child policy”:
1) It was not strictly 1 child. Rural areas were allowed 2. I was third child and *NOT ABORTED* but levied fine.
2) Huge growth in life expectancy.
This is why China’s population is 1.4 billion.
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Around 100 years ago,
hundreds of millions of people once went to bed thankful that a man named FDR was at the helm of the US,
and keeping the world afloat,
Now its perhaps billions of people who go to bed thankful that a man named Xi Jinping is at the helm of China,
and the last sane man keeping the world afloat.
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JD retweetledi
@gideonrachman @ForeignAffairs I can literally show you the same article printed at irregular intervals for 40 years -- how stupid do you think we are? I used to read your column, Gideon, and even wrote to you -- but I cancelled my FT subscription. You have a big platform -- you use it to mislead and deceive
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@muff1nb0y @teortaxesTex The US went crazy after 9/11, invading and killing countless people however tenuous their connection to the attacks.
We have an American movie basically glorifying torture of Muslims in Zero Dark Thirty.
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@teortaxesTex If something similar to uyghur terrorist attacks happened in USA, they would 've vaporized their whole bloodline lol. China method was kinda inhumane but much better than whatever the fuck a western power would do.
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this didn't happen in Tibet and didn't happen in Xinjiang
The CCP does not chimp out. They crush resistance effectively, and invest into development of the conquered territory and people. "Pile of ruble" is pathetic failure in their view. There is nothing like Gaza in China.
Jeffry Blas@jefferinc
@teortaxesTex Lets be honest if tibet came in murdered 10k chines. Tibet would be 1 pile of ruble in 1 day
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@teortaxesTex When will the PLA Navy sink the Philippines ships contesting sovereign Chinese territory in a Falklands War-style campaign?
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@teortaxesTex The CCP is frustratingly restrained. If not for the vilification of China by American media, I think China would enjoy far greater prestige.
There are so many examples of China exercising restraint (like the 1962 border war).
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