CHolmes

Today I sat down with Jordan Levi, the Kosher Cowboy - a Jewish kid from the Chicago suburbs who became the largest cattle feeder in America. Jordan runs Five Rivers Cattle Feeding with a capacity of nearly a million head. He started as a runner on the Chicago Board of Trade at 13 and found his way to cattle through a hedge fund that sent him to a feedlot in Amarillo. He showed up in Gucci loafers and never left the industry. We go deep on how he trades the curve instead of making binary bets, why the cattle supply is the tightest since the 1950s, and what it takes to manage risk on nearly a million animals across 13 feedlots. I hope you enjoy this episode as much as I did. 02:16 - The Belted Galloway 03:51 - The Kosher Cowboy 08:05 - Pulling value of the futures forward 11:43 - Learning Cattle trading 16:48 - Daily average gain in cattle 18:20 - Jordan’s Eureka moment in the cattle industry 21:08 - What does trading in animals actually look like? 27:05 - How Jordan defines his ROI in trading cattle 31:17 - The Cattle curve 33:37 - The state of the cattle market 42:10 - Buying the largest cattle feeder in the world 46:09 - Grass vs. grain fed cattle 49:15 - Predictions for the cattle supply over the next 10 years 50:54 - The international market 53:17 - Trading frequencies and macro thesis 01:00:27 - USA beef vs. international beef 01:05:21 - The cattle supply chain 01:07:32 - The future of auction yards and ranchers 01:09:40 - AI in AgTech 01:12:52 - The biggest problem facing the industry 01:14:42 - Livestock as a commodity that dies and how that impacts trading theory 01:20:51 - Is there a market for new entrants into cattle? 01:21:41 - Beef prices and the impact of a closed border on the industry 01:24:39 - Jordan’s biggest ideas for the industry 01:26:49 - Philanthropic efforts 01:31:24 - a day in the life of Jordan 01:26:42 - Risk management in cattle 01:41:17 - Does what you do show a leading indicator to the broader health of the American economy?

U.S. corn plantings come in above trade expectations while soybeans and wheat come in below.

30d Rainfall. Have’s & Have Not’s

It’s official. Agricultural commodities have broken through a nearly 20-year resistance level. I expect this move to accelerate from here. When energy moves, agriculture tends to follow — it’s a natural lag in the macro setup. Be mindful of the social and political consequences of rising food prices. My latest macro presentation: tavicosta.substack.com/p/opportunity-…

Cargill suspendeu recebimentos de soja até Junho em Barreiras. Ontem tinham mais de 160 caminhões de produtores na fila para descarregamento. A colheita está no ápice após vários dias de chuva. O produtor que não se preparou com silo-bolsa está encrencado.

>crude oil futures open in a few hours

Tehran's largest oil depot up in flames 👇 A reminder that China imports 15% of its oil from Iran. No longer.

Money is pouring into ag commodities. Corn for example, the biggest week of large spec corn buying since November... And this does not include the 40¢ rally from Wednesday's low to Friday's close.

Markets are forward thinking - we have spent allo fo 2025 without a whiff of "premium" being priced in for anything.... 12.5 mmt of chinese purchases sent us on a path of price discovery to 1170-1180... A rumor of 8mmt more brought us back for a 2nd test... conventional wisdom says it should test prices higher to ration some demand... BUT.... At no point was a single one of those purchases base on "Chinese needs" -> they were based on trade negotiations and a literally political move by China to commit to purchases (which still do not get us to the USDA forecasted values by the way). I am not trying to be a soybean bear; but I can't objectively sit here and say "this is the environment for beans in the teens" WITHOUT an addition narrative for how we need additional price premiums (like this next growing seasons weather or a shortened acreage argument). Is the foundation with the tighter carryout WITH those Chinese purchases for a bull market? Yes, but that doesnt mean they are figured out how to finance with rest of the building (metaphor for how we see additional price rally). Without this new conflict, i think the status quo would have taken beans higher to price ration any notion of a sub 200m bushel ending stocks; with this conflict the reality of "consideration" phrasing for the additional 8mmts becomes a bearish reality.

Vote for Lily !!

Lincoln sisters Lily and Paisley Holmes combined for 20 points for the Class 3A girls basketball regional title, 50-39 over Mount Zion on Thursday. Hear Holmes react to Lincoln girls basketball regional title.

This right here is the lie that broke a generation. Somewhere in the 1980s, we told kids that if they didn’t go to college, they were failures. We told them working with their hands was a dead end. We pushed paper credentials and pulled people away from land, trades, and real assets. And while everyone was chasing degrees, the price of land kept quietly telling the truth. The acre never changed. The dollar did. When it took $200 to balance an acre, people laughed. When it took $800, they hesitated. Now it takes $12,000–$15,000—and suddenly everyone calls it “too expensive,” as if the land got greedy. That’s backwards. Land didn’t get more valuable. Money got weaker. That’s why people with real wealth don’t buy ranches for rent checks. They buy them to store value. To step outside inflation. To put their labor, time, and capital somewhere the printer can’t reach. If you own assets, inflation works for you. If you don’t, inflation eats you alive—higher groceries, higher utilities, higher fuel, higher everything. That’s the split nobody wants to talk about. Ranching was never just about cattle. It was about understanding money before money understood you. And the old men buying land in their eighties? They already learned the lesson. They’ve seen the dollar shrink their entire lives—and they know exactly where to stand when it does. @beefinitiative @maxkeiser

Yet another weekly decline in Argentina's #corn & #soybean conditions amid ongoing dryness. #Corn Good/Excellent: -2% WoW Fair/Bad: -1% WoW #Soybeans Good/Excellent: -7% WoW Fair/Bad: +9% WoW Hardest hit southern growing areas are finally seeing some needed rainfall, but portions are still missing out. Will need to keep a close eye on how current forecasts verify. #oatt

Deputy Ag Secretary Stephen Vaden on Wednesday accused Nutrien and Mosaic of colluding to limit U.S. #fertilizer supply and control #prices, suggesting that the administration could take future action to inject more competition into markets, if necessary. agri-pulse.com/articles/24067…

@james65davies @holmesfarms5

So, elevators are not going full in Iowa but the crop is huge? I'll take the unders.

@james65davies @farmerThomo @holmesfarms5 that’s a lot of land

⚠️A powerful cold front could possibly bring a big problem to the Midwest next Fri/Sat. Latest GFS hinting at a widespread month+ early frost. If this forecast continues to suggest upper 30s it would be record cold and a big problem for the US grains. #AGwx #corn #soybeans Check back often for updates!

Harvest 2025 drawing to a close. Nothing fancy but fine. @caw_brown @Rebecca02649978 @farmerThomo @james65davies @jcdfarms @holmesfarms5 @HefinR