Volodymyr Horbach 🇺🇦

Ukraine did not give up. Ukrainians will win. Україна не здалася. Українці переможуть.

NEW: For the first time, a major Western leader has said out loud what many in Europe have been thinking privately: NATO's Article 5 the guarantee that an attack on one is an attack on all can no longer be taken for granted. And it wasn't an enemy that put it in doubt. It was Washington. There is now a doubt on Article 5 not put on the table by the Europeans, but by the US president," Macron said in Athens, standing next to the Greek Prime Minister. Macron is now pointing to something most people have never heard of Article 42.7, buried in the EU's Treaty of Lisbon and ignored for decades. It is the EU's own mutual defence clause: if a member state is attacked, all others are obligated to assist by all means in their power. Macron called it stronger than Article 5, with "no room for interpretation or ambiguity" and critically, it doesn't require Washington's blessing. It has already been used. When Cyprus came under threat in the opening days of the Iran war, France, Greece, Spain, Italy, the Netherlands and Portugal rushed military assets to the island the first real test of Article 42.7 in an actual crisis. Greek PM Mitsotakis called it "a gamechanger." He was honest about why it had been ignored before: "We never spoke about it because we thought NATO would always do the job." That assumption is gone. EU leaders are now building a formal handbook on how the clause works in practice. European Council president Costa confirmed it plainly: "We are designing the handbook on how to use this mutual assistance clause." Something that European politicians avoided for decades is now being debated openly.

@shanaka86 The topic of Russia has not been discussed. But it is already starting to look like a war of all against all.

On April 12, the same day the Islamabad talks collapsed after 21 hours and Trump announced a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a crowd in Ankara: “Just as we entered Libya and Karabakh, we can enter Israel. There is no reason not to do it.” He added: “Had Pakistan not been mediating in the war between the US and Iran, we would have shown Israel its place.” A NATO ally since 1952 just threatened to invade the country that NATO’s most powerful member is blockading a strait to protect. Turkey is in the same alliance as the United States. Israel is the United States’ closest partner in the Middle East. And Erdogan announced on a global stage that the only thing preventing Turkish military action against Israel is the mediation role of Pakistan, which hosted peace talks that failed twelve hours earlier. There is no Turkish military mobilization. There are no troop movements. There are no naval deployments toward the Eastern Mediterranean. Erdogan’s Libya intervention in 2019 was a proxy operation supporting the Government of National Accord with drones and advisers. His Karabakh reference is to Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan in 2020 and 2023, also proxy and air-supported. Neither was a direct ground invasion of a state with a modern air force, missile defense systems, nuclear ambiguity, and the full backing of the American military. The threat is rhetorical. The threat is also the most explicit statement of military intent by a NATO member against a US-aligned partner since Turkey’s 1974 Cyprus operation. Netanyahu responded by calling Erdogan the “Hitler of our time.” Israel’s ambassador to the UN called the statement “a declaration of intent by a NATO member.” No official US response has been issued as of April 13. But the timing is the story. On April 12, five things happened within twelve hours. The Islamabad talks collapsed. Trump announced the Hormuz blockade. Erdogan threatened to invade Israel. Iran’s embassy in Ghana posted that Vance “flew home empty-handed” and said “Iran said a BIG NO.” And Araghchi announced he would seek talks with Europeans in Berlin, Paris, and London, bypassing the United States entirely. Five escalations or pivots on the same day. The peace architecture that took a week to build disintegrated in a single Saturday. The mediator’s country (Pakistan) is being praised for trying. The ceasefire broker (China) is preparing MANPADs for the country it helped bring to the table. The NATO ally hosting US bases (Turkey) is threatening the country those bases indirectly support. The country that refused to join the war (Spain) is in Beijing. And the country that started the war (the United States) is now blockading the strait it spent six weeks trying to open. Every actor is moving in a direction that makes the next actor’s position harder to hold. Turkey’s threat forces the US to choose between NATO solidarity and Israeli security. Iran’s Europe pivot forces Vance’s “final offer” into competition with softer European terms. China’s MANPAD delivery forces the US to confront the country that brokered the only pause in fighting. And Trump’s blockade forces every toll-paying nation, including the mediator Pakistan, to choose between Iranian coordination and American interdiction. The war is no longer between two countries. It is between every alliance, every institution, and every assumption about how the world is organized. And it is all happening faster than any single government can process. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

The topic of Russia has not been discussed. But it is already starting to look like a war of all against all.

Well, the "whole civilization" survived, at least for another 2 weeks. Moreover, it put Trump at the negotiating table on its terms (10 points mentioned in Trump's post). So this is not the end. This is just the beginning of the end.

І переключити увагу на проект будівництва нового клінічного корпусу на місці іншого крила Білого дому, навпроти Бальної зали... Шах і мат :) Хоча мат вже був. Але без шаха. 3/3

Він, наприклад, може висадити десант морських піхотинців не на іранський берег Ормузької протоки, а на оманський. Щоб брати плату "за проїзд". Або захопити якусь нафтову вишку десь в Еміратах. А потім... лягти на лікарняний і не ходити на роботу до врегулювання ситуації. 2/3

Тут різні розумні люди кажуть і пишуть що у Трампа вже немає варіантів як красиво вийти із війни з Іраном. Мовляв, цуґ-цванґ у політичних шахах. Але якщо подумати і творчо підійти до шахової дошки то... 1/3

@Kasparov63 Without ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, Trump started and cannot end a new one. If Trump were not the president of the United States, the first one would have already been ended and the second one would not have been started. Trump poses a threat to the entire world.

Trump has always lived in his own reality. Everything is great and he never loses. When actual reality conflicts, this is what you get. Regardless of the results, he will declare glorious victory, and blame foreign allies & domestic opposition for anything anyone calls a failure.

American geopolitical insight and policy has gone from The Long Telegram to The Deranged Tweet.

@Gefle10 @MarvinTBaumann North America Tramp Organisation

@MarvinTBaumann USA named it: North America Treaty Organization

@LindseyGrahamSC @POTUS Without ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, Trump started and cannot end a new one. If Trump were not the president of the United States, the first one would have already been ended and the second one would not have been started.

I just had a great conversation with @POTUS. I totally support his ultimatum to the Iranian regime to open up the Strait of Hormuz and to do a peace deal. A massive military operation awaits Iran if they choose poorly. This regime has been severely crippled through Operation Epic Fury. Their reign of terror against the region and the world needs to come to an end, hopefully through a peace deal. After speaking with President Trump this morning, I am completely convinced that he will use overwhelming military force against the regime if they continue to impede the Strait of Hormuz and refuse a diplomatic solution to achieve our military objectives. If it’s not clear to Iran and others by now that President Trump means what he says then I don’t know when it will ever be. Choose wisely.

@M_S_Billingslea @SecGenNATO No, sir. Soon the formula may sound different: “The purpose of NATO is to keep the Americans out, the Ukrainian in, and the Russians down.”

NATO’s 2nd Secretary General, Hastings Ismay, famously said “The purpose of NATO is to keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down.” For @SecGenNATO next week, the goal remains to keep the Russians out & the Americans in, but to drag up the Germans, Spaniards, Italians et al. Rutte needs to show up with a plan to do that. I have on several occasions suggested some hard-hitting reforms that leave NATO intact while penalizing low-performers. 👇

Without ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, Trump started and cannot end a new one. If Trump were not the president of the United States, the first one would have already been ended and the second one would not have been started (C).

@DionisCenusa Yes, he is not pro-Russian. But he is very scared of the Russians. They threatened him when the issue of transferring 300 billion frozen Russian assets to Ukraine was discussed.

Belgian PM De Wever calls for negotiating with Russia to stop the war. He is not pro-Russian, by no means. What he says is very much what I drew attention to some days ago: Without synchronisation between the sanctions regimes on both banks of the Atlantic, the sanctions are less efficient in hurting Russia economically, reducing its capacity to wage war against Ukraine. “Since we are not capable of threatening Vladimir Putin by sending weapons to Ukraine, and we cannot choke him economically without the support of the US, there is only one method left: making a deal,” he told the Belgian newspaper L’Echo. euractiv.com/news/belgiums-…

Temporary de-sanctioning of Russian oil by the US. This significantly contributes to Russian military aggression in Ukraine, which faces scant military and financial aid from the West due to the Hungarian blockade and the war in the Middle East. A serious dilemma is emerging in the EU, where Hungary and Slovakia have joined forces to oppose the energy embargo on Russia.

Trump will cannot dare to launch a ground operation to enter Iran for regime change, and he will not be able to get out of the war without the consent of the same regime. Now it is a symbiosis for them. The situation is loose loose. 3/3

They will pressure Trump until he loses face. And in the war they will not disdain any available means, including terrorist attacks, assassinations and even "dirty bombs"... 2/3

Trump can declare his victory over Iran and the end of the war as much as he wants. But without regime change in Iran, this will not stop the actual war. Because the ayatollahs will not stop... 1/3

@AmbBridgetBrink Now they say that the only winner (beneficiary) of a new war in the Gulf is Russia. And what could be the benefit to Ukraine in that war? 1) Russia will lose access to Iran's resources. 2) Trump will lose his monopoly on power in the US and will not be able to warm up to Putin.

Trump lifting sanctions on Russian oil won't ease sky rocking gas prices in Michigan and across the country. It will, however, help fund Putin's war machine in Ukraine. As Sen. Chris Coons said this week, the only clear winner in this war with Iran is Russia.

Now they say that the only winner (beneficiary) of a new war in the Gulf is Russia. And what could be the benefit to Ukraine in that war? 1) Russia will lose access to Iran's resources. 2) Trump will lose his monopoly on power in the US and will not be able to warm up to Putin.

@slantchev * A Russian-headed person is someone in whose consciousness Russia occupies the main place, which is the starting point for his unconscious actions. Political trepanation (C). 2/2

@slantchev Why does Trump constantly call Putin? Because, as a Russian-headed*, he sees Putin as the main addressee of his political actions. This is his target audience. 1/2

Fucking hell. He’s a traitor.